ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[MiamiensisWx]

I have NEVER seen an eye emerging on VISIBLE IMAGERY after landfall, but this one looks legitimate, as evidenced by the higher tops surrounding the "depression". The location is co-located with radar data as well.

Wow...

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

Check the 14:15 visible image...

[artist]

Looking like a serious FLOODING Event for SE FL especially the northern counties. I would wager to say people living in Palm Beach County, Broward, Martin did not expect to see this much rain.

I can tell you I had to backwash my pool twice already. I estimate we have had about 7 inches of rain in about 8 hours. Driving down 441 (SR7) in Palm Beach County, there is free standing water on both sides of the road everywhere...

water levels rising rapidly across these areas.

we live in the Acreage and it has only stopped raining a total of maybe 45 minutes since midnight. And we got some rain before then as well. We have a pond that makes us look like we went through Jeannes rains right now and this is plenty more to come. I am sure some streets out here are probably under water though I've not gotten out to look.
Were the tornados near you? Can you believe how many warnings we had? When you had one we were also in it. Actually the entire county has been under warnings at one time or another ever since around midnight. I think we just happened to be the area with the most.
Thank goodness there was only one or 2 actual touchdowns from what I have heard.

[tailgater]

Frank : The reason why some see it as stationary and others don't is no big mystery though. If the loops aren't automatically updated you can go back a few pages and see that there was a period when she was spinning in one spot for a while not moving at all. She may be moving again now but there was definitely a stationary period

So very true.
Just alittle east of NHC track but one wobble west would out her back in line.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... footer.gif

[Frank2]

HurricaneHunter914,

It might be considered an eye, but, it's probably more of a well-defined circulation center than anything, based on the wind speed and type of convection around the center...

[gatorcane]

she looks the best she ever has.. to my surprise conditions continue to get worse here

I warned about this yesterday, for some reason SE Floridiains thought last night would be the worst of it and today would be much better ---- I think its because since Wilma moved through so fast, it was a "recency" error that was being made.

I think the worst will happen over the next 6-8 hours.

[Just Joshing You]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Visible imagery... as well as radar... indicate that FAY has handled exceptionally well while over land. An eye-like feature has become pronounced over the last few hours. Current intensity is held at 50 KT in the short term, with a continuing weakening trend forecasted.

*my take on what the 11 am will say, not a real forecast.

[RL3AO]

Wow. Erin 2.0?

[Frank2]

Relax, Gatorcane - everyone down here agreed that the overnight wasn't anything worse than we've seen many times in the past - even outside of the season...

[Blown Away]

I'm going to guess 10pm to midnight or so and she's on the coast again. That's assuming she stays the same general speed as in the last 2 hours.

Love to her move over Lake Okeechobee and build some convection.

[carolina_73]

Right on the NHC track. She is going to scrape the northern edge of Lake Okeechobee.

[Sanibel]

Just a weak tree shaker here. Weakest since I've lived here.

Fay got good structure while turning up the trough edge and probably being vented. A good surrounded eye that looks more like 988 pressure.

Our citrus trees were all undamaged and lost no fruit. 2 3/4 inches of much needed rain.

We Marco to Everglades City landfall callers got lucky. Fay likes being over land. Winds were probably stronger down there by Everglades City and Naples.

Lost power for 5 seconds.

[sfwx]

Check out Fay on WPTV radar. Not a whole lot of movement.....

http://www.wptv.com/weather/default.aspx

[Just Joshing You]

I think she will come close to Lake O, but definitely not within 10-20 NM.

[Meso]

That definitely appears to be an eye. Or at least that's what it seems. There are some high dBz radar readings wrapping around the 'eye' and her overall presentation is better than at landfall when recon reported an eye open on the southern side.. See no reason for it not to be an eye, (apart from the fact that she's on land of course)

[Just Joshing You]

From what I gather, the eye appeared hours after landfall, no?

[Air Force Met]

Cone of error.

A few days ago, a pro-met was on here screaming his head off at everyone about speculating on the size of the error cone, and how it never changes in size, and that its ALWAYS 2/3's of something or other, I dont remember.

Does that really apply here? I mean that 5 day cone looks much larger than usual???

So IS the width of the 5 day forecast always the same, was that pro-met wrong, or did I misread something?

I wasn't "Screaming" my head off "at everyone"...and if you think that...then I think you are way too sensative. I was pointing out something that has been posted on here a million times before: The cone doesn't change and isn't manipulated by the NHC to show more or less track uncertainty. The problem you aer having with the cone now is the points are close together and it takes a left turn....making it look bigger...but it is still the same size. The cone is what it is soley because the track is what it is.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

From the NHC:

The cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone, and is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles (not shown) along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc). The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample fall within the circle. The circle radii defining the cones in 2008 for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins are given in the table below.

One can also examine historical tracks to determine how often the entire 5-day path of a cyclone remains completely within the area of the cone. This is a different perspective that ignores most timing errors. For example, a storm moving very slowly but in the expected direction would still be within the area of the cone, even though the track forecast error could be very large. Based on forecasts over the previous 5 years, the entire track of the tropical cyclone can be expected to remain within the cone roughly 60-70% of the time.

[chris_fit]

Starting to pick up here near in the Melbourne area... traffic lights swaying... some minor flooding on the roadways already... saw a ripped flag even blowing in the wind.....

[GeneratorPower]

Relax, Gatorcane - everyone down here agreed that the overnight wasn't anything worse than we've seen many times in the past - even outside of the season...

Frank, why all the downplaying today? I don't remember you usually thinking that way. I think Gator's comment was very good, no need for him to "relax". This is bringing a LOT of rain and some decent winds to most of South Florida. In fact, if this meanders around SFL for much longer you could have some more flooding issues.

[Air Force Met]

Right on the NHC track. She is going to scrape the northern edge of Lake Okeechobee.

Which track? The one from this morning...yesterday...or the day before?

[Mattie]

Am I seeing this correctly? Fay proceeds across the state, comes back in the GOM and proceeds to landfall in the same area a second time. What are the odds? A zillion to one.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

I just ran that animation and that's what it does . . . . my thoughts - - - "ARE YOU KIDDING ME???" Surely yes. . .

Ihat's an old run from Sunday

It's dated 8-18-08. . . but then "that was yesterday" - so an old run still.