ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Ed Mahmoud]

WSCN, Channel 7, here in Miami was live until an hour ago. They had their two anchors, 9 reports, and 2 meterologists in rotation talking about the storm. Let me tell you. There is no tree that fell in Miami and the areas around that wasn't reported!

Our channel 2...here in HOUSTON...is now running a commercial about Edouard. IT says something like "no scare tactics..." and shows their mets talking about Edouard.

They ran it last night...then they had a 5 sec. news break on Fay...saying something like..."Fay forecasted to turn west...should we worry?"

Gotta love the media.

Stick with Gene Norman, with Dr Frank pinch hitting from retirement for storms in the Gulf, on KHOU-TV 11

[gatorcane]

Looks like her NNE movement is coming to a crawl..I think she's nearly stationary at the moment or moving erratically NNE at around 2-5 mph.

In this WV image, you can see the trough exiting out now...just over South Carolina at the moment. Off to the west, you see some ridging building in and moving ENE.....

She's already starting to feel the ridge gradually building in from the NW now.....I'm not sure she will make it a whole lot farther NNE.......

[Air Force Met]

Which brings me to my question, AFM should we be concerned.

No...not here. I do not see the kind of high building north of Fay that would drive it far enough south to reach the NW GoM.

[tolakram]

Okeechobee

Pressure steadily falling which is a decent indicator of how quickly Fay is approaching.

[cheezyWXguy]

eye now visible on both IR and vis, though looks more like a hook on IR

[Sanibel]

Time to put all the plants and furniture back on the porch.


- It's cool when a cyclone is right nearby on your local cable TV NOAA channel radar.

[Air Force Met]

Stick with Gene Norman, with Dr Frank pinch hitting from retirement for storms in the Gulf, on KHOU-TV 11

I don't watch any TV weather. If I don't feel like doing the work myself...I can just look at the NWS forecast...since the local TV mets...by and large...use those forecasts.

I had to watch channel 2 because the olympics was on...and I wanted to watch the 400m hurdles...and beach VB.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I cant wait to see if there is any response over Lake O....She looks destined to go over the heart of it..

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... x&loop=yes

[chris_fit]

Reds almost gone...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

[carversteve]

Just a question....What are the chances she never makes it to the east coast of florida before she turns back west into the gulf??

[gatorcane]

and I think the high cloud tops blowing off NE from Fay just off the NC/SC coast are going to "decouple" from Fay's circulation over Southern Florida......should happen over the next 6 hours or so...as the trough pulls out, it takes the SW-NE shear with it...and as ridging builds in from the NW...upper-level winds shift more to the ENE.

Fay will be left behind meandering over South or South Central FL.....erratic motion is in order.

[tolakram]

[T'Bonz]

Not bad at all. If we had to get some tropical junk, this is the type of storm to get. Rain, a bit of wind and very little work had to be done.

Plus it'll go over the lake and replenish the water a bit.

[gtalum]

Hmmm... I wonder if Fay will make our weekend trip to Disney World this weekend a rainy one? It would sure beat the heat, anyway.

[chris_fit]

Current Conditions in Melbourne....

Heavy Rain Fog/Mist and Windy

76°F
(24°C)
Humidity: 91 %
Wind Speed: E 30 G 39 MPH
Barometer: 29.84" (1010.3 mb)
Dewpoint: 73°F (23°C)
Heat Index: 76°F (24°C)
Visibility: 2.00 mi.

[tallywx]

For those thinking that just getting this thing back over water is the only prerequisite for reintensification, keep in mind that waters right off the FL East Coast are actually pretty cold. So if the center spends time just offshore north of Cape Canaveral, the cold SSTs coupled with dry air entrainment off the Peninsula into its core does not bode well. It would have to get far enough offshore to get its center over the Gulf Stream.




IMO, the best scenario for re-strengthening at this point is if she stalls out earlier than expected and makes it back out over the Gulf.

[Sanibel]

I disagree Gatorcane. I think some venting is happening here that will help Fay like it helped Charley maintain over land. About half way across it will start feeding from the Atlantic side and emerge around south Canaveral.

[carversteve]

Ok i will ask again..any pro or mets comments appreciated!
Just a question....What are the chances she never makes it to the east coast of florida before she turns back west into the gulf??

[KWT]

Those waters are more than warm enough tallywx to strengthen a minimal TS.

Track really is tricky we've got to be looking for signs of a more westerly motion soon but for now looks to be still heading NE and if it gets out into the Atlantic strengthening should occur again.

[jlauderdal]

For those thinking that just getting this thing back over water is the only prerequisite for reintensification, keep in mind that waters right off the FL East Coast are actually pretty cold. So if the center spends time just offshore north of Cape Canaveral, the cold SSTs coupled with dry air entrainment off the Peninsula into its core does not bode well. It would have to get far enough offshore to get its center over the Gulf Stream.




IMO, the best scenario for re-strengthening at this point is if she stalls out earlier than expected and makes it back out over the Gulf.

yep, those Atlantic ssts are chilly in august off florida