Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[fwbbreeze]

The models have been too far west with this storm all along therefore I'm not buying into this sharp west turn back into the Gulf, I think it will exit Florida....strengthen a bit and then head into Georgia/South Carolina.

wrong, the models have done a pretty good job with Fay. Yes there have been a few outliers but for the most part the consensus was not bad. When most of the models show some type of westward move, ie w, wnw, nw then its a pretty good bet some type of westward turn is gonna occur.

[Sanibel]

What it is doing right now is very close to CMC of 48 hours ago - just a little north.

[deltadog03]

Actually...If you remember when she was south of cuba and took that W movement for awhile, we saw some models shift/trend west. In fact, NHC, EURO, HWRF, and GFDL where the only ones over the south florida. Well, it appears...lol that those models did a fairly good job when others went west. I will admit, I thought they were out to lunch at times too..

[rockyman]

12z GFS initializing...let's see what it comes up with:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[KWT]

Amazingly the CMC has possibly been the best model in spotting the trends, it spotted the more westerly motion over the Caribbean islands and then along with the ECM also latched onto the recurve before most of the other models, pretty good given its normal rubbish!

[Steve]

>>If it comes out a strong TS off the coast of flordia i think it may turn west a bit more north, than predicted

Like South Carolina? Yeah, this is my 8th day going for that. Interesting that an Alabama poster has called you to task. It's no big deal, deltadog's been hinting "Georgia" for a while himself.

Only thing I'm going to disagree with you is "models being too far west." Many, for a while, were too far east. Most converged, eventually, on SW FL.

Steve

[Ivanhater]

Amazingly the CMC has possibly been the best model in spotting the trends, it spotted the more westerly motion over the Caribbean islands and then along with the ECM also latched onto the recurve before most of the other models, pretty good given its normal rubbish!

I can just picture you saying rubbish with that british accent

I think the important thing to watch for is how far north does she get before she stalls, that will tell if we will be dealing with a strong fay or weaker fay..

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Amazingly the CMC has possibly been the best model in spotting the trends, it spotted the more westerly motion over the Caribbean islands and then along with the ECM also latched onto the recurve before most of the other models, pretty good given its normal rubbish!

I can just picture you saying rubbish with that british accent

I think the important thing to watch for is how far north does she get before she stalls, that will tell if we will be dealing with a strong fay or weaker fay..

So far the 12z GFS stalls Fay off the central florida coast thpugh 48 hours.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

12z GFS still stalled off central florida coast after 60 hours. Talk about flooding.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

12z GFS still has Fay stalled right on the central florida coast after 72 hours.

[rockyman]

72 hours...approaching Tampa moving west or WSW

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS still has Fay stalled right on the central florida coast after 72 hours.

She still is moving west, not stalled
Exit point Tampa..

[Ivanhater]

84 hours..hello waters of the gulf

[freeroam]

I am sooo confused. Exit point Tampa then what, N, GOM, Back to FL. I need to go to work and still hanging here trying to get some lil clue to the direction.

12z GFS still has Fay stalled right on the central florida coast after 72 hours.

She still is moving west, not stalled
Exit point Tampa..

[bohaiboy]

Please review Elena's path in1985. We lived in Mobile and she was making a beeline ala Frederick directly toward Mobile. THen she veered off toward Cedar Key. We took off for North Alabama as it was Labor Day weekend/ After hearing reports of flash flood watches in south Alabama, we realized Elena had done a 180 and was headed back, ultimately going ashore in Mississippi, so it can happen.

[url]http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/elena1985filledrainwhite.gif[/url

[Sabanic]

Please review Elena's path in1985. We lived in Mobile and she was making a beeline ala Frederick directly toward Mobile. THen she veered off toward Cedar Key. We took off for North Alabama as it was Labor Day weekend/ After hearing reports of flash flood watches in south Alabama, we realized Elena had done a 180 and was headed back, ultimately going ashore in Mississippi, so it can happen.

[url]http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/elena1985filledrainwhite.gif[/url

I remember it well. Put the boards up, took them down, and then had to put them back up again. All in a matter of 2-1/2 days. CRAZY !!!

[Comanche]

what is the GFS showing now? I don't know how to get the frame by frame. Thanks for posting it guys.

[Wx_Warrior]

'Hater...GFS has her headed your way!

edited for duplicate image

[Ivanhater]

114

[Ivanhater]

'Hater...GFS has her headed your way!

Im still in the "Ill believe it when I see it" mode..lol