ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[gatorcane]

I'm very curious what would happen if the eye passed over Lake O or meandered over it for several hours

so hopefully she does so we can see what happens.

[cpdaman]

RLAO3 i mean wouldn't it have to, it's doing a slow steady crawl across florida, and was intensifying on the way in, and now appears to have great conditions (sans land) however the lake is right by her LOL but i mean i have a hard time believing she can maintain her strength all the way across (even with good contitions) because of her slow rate as well as she has a decently low pressure

[Enzo Aquarius]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1246 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF VERO BEACH SOUTH...
NORTH CENTRAL ST. LUCIE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF INDRIO...

* UNTIL 115 PM EDT

* AT 1245 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LAKEWOOD
PARK...OR ABOUT NEAR INDRIO...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
VERO BEACH SOUTH BY 1255 PM EDT...

[Brent]

Not sure if you all have seen this...but HPC going for HUGE rainfall totals over the SE US...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif

20 INCHES OFFSHORE SAVANNAH!!!!!!!

That makes my 4 inch projection look like nothing.

I'll believe it when I see it here.

[cpdaman]

I'm very curious what would happen if the eye passed over Lake O or meandered over it for several hours

so hopefully she does so we can see what happens.

all professional wobble watches are now putting their glasses on

unfortunately i see her just grazing the SW part of the lake, although being right next to her will probably have a positive effect on her as well.

[gatorcane]

RLAO3 i mean wouldn't it have to, it's doing a slow steady crawl across florida, and was intensifying on the way in, and now appears to have great conditions (sans land) however the lake is right by her LOL but i mean i have a hard time believing she can maintain her strength all the way across (even with good contitions) because of her slow rate as well as she has a decently low pressure

I dunno -- she just isn't losing much punch in her treck and if pro mets are correct, she could emerge back over water before any significant weakening can even happen.

[tallywx]

I think her min. central pressure is lower than 986 mb now. Moore Haven station is down to 988 mb but still in the eyewall (winds south at 52 mph). I would think that the pressure gradient between it and the center of the eye is more than 2 mb.

[MiamiensisWx]

Station near Moore Haven is reporting sustained wind of 78 mph:

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLMOORE5

78 mph is NOT a typo.

Latest NHC advisory has increased winds to 65 mph (55 kt) based on reliable observations from other stations and instruments in the area.

[gatorcane]

from latest NHC advisory:

...Fay refuses to weaken...strong winds battering Lake Okeechobee...

[Dean4Storms]

From this radar loop it looks like Fay will move offshore well south of Cape Canaveral.


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[cpdaman]

I think her min. central pressure is lower than 986 mb now. Moore Haven station is down to 988 mb but still in the eyewall (winds south at 52 mph). I would think that the pressure gradient between it and the center of the eye is more than 2 mb.

WOW just wow 988

maybe it would be better for her not to go over the lake

and also to add as a wobble watcher the small tight LLC is like a w-e oriented egg as of 1251 just west of the lake, by 130 it should be oriented more N-S and get over the SW part of the lake , at least oh ya and this is the best board ever!

[jinftl]

Lake O is about 11 or 12 feet deep right now...i would think the shallowness of the water would not have much impact....but after staying alive over the mountains of hispaniola and then cuba, fay is surrounded by a flat, pretty narrow peninsula that is largely swampy....this is nothing for her!

I'm very curious what would happen if the eye passed over Lake O or meandered over it for several hours

so hopefully she does so we can see what happens.

[MiamiensisWx]

Station near Moore Haven is reporting sustained wind of 78 mph:

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLMOORE5

78 mph is NOT a typo.

Latest NHC advisory has increased winds to 65 mph (55 kt) based on reliable observations from other stations and instruments in the area.

Bump for others... check the link and you'll see the reading of 78 mph, though it is a personal wx station.

[gtalum]

Is Sarasota/Bradenton going to get ANYTHING from Fay? I gently teased my neighbor this morning for putting his shutters up.

[Scorpion]

Lots of mobile homes by Lake Okeechobee.. hopefully people there evacuated.

[gatorcane]

I have a strong feeling that after Fay is done, an investigation will be done to determine if she truly became a hurricane or not. My thinking is she is a CAT 1 cane right now

It makes me wonder if NHC should have hurricane warnings out for Lake O

[Brent]

from latest NHC advisory:

...Fay refuses to weaken...strong winds battering Lake Okeechobee...

and they no longer mention weakening as it moves over Florida!!!!!!

I've seen much worse looking hurricanes before...

[Terry]

Is Sarasota/Bradenton going to get ANYTHING from Fay? I gently teased my neighbor this morning for putting his shutters up.

It's a steady 30mph out here on the beach to your west. lol

[Enzo Aquarius]

Fisheating Creek in Palmsdale, west of Lake O is currently at 5.56 feet and rising, with predicted gradual rising to flood stage in a day or so.

[tolakram]

Okeechobee