ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Gustywind]

Oh yeah nice sat pic!

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 202345.GIF

Small system, shear doesn't look to be much of a problem in the loop at the moment.

[cycloneye]

The rotation looks strong.As you said Sandy,its August and everthing has to be watched.

[HURAKAN]

Station 41026 - Forro

Owned and maintained by the PIRATA (Pilot Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic) Project
Atlas Buoy
12 N 38 W (12°00'00"N 38°00'00"W)

Conditions at 41026 as of
1500 GMT on 08/19/2008:

Code: Select all

Air Temperature (ATMP):    81.1 °F
Water Temperature   Water Temperature (WTMP):   82.9 °F
Wind Speed   Wind Speed (WSPD):   11.1 kts
Wind Direction   Wind Direction (WDIR):   W (280 deg)

Link: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41026

[O Town]

[CrazyC83]

Station 41026 - Forro

Owned and maintained by the PIRATA (Pilot Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic) Project
Atlas Buoy
12 N 38 W (12°00'00"N 38°00'00"W)

Conditions at 41026 as of
1500 GMT on 08/19/2008:

Code: Select all

Air Temperature (ATMP):    81.1 °F
Water Temperature   Water Temperature (WTMP):   82.9 °F
Wind Speed   Wind Speed (WSPD):   11.1 kts
Wind Direction   Wind Direction (WDIR):   W (280 deg)

Link: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41026

So we still have a closed circulation.

[cycloneye]

The latest at 12:45 PM EDT:

[Sanibel]

Red IR. Could be seeing our next Fay here if it doesn't go out to sea.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

669
ABNT20 KNHC 191752
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FAY...CENTERED INLAND NEAR LAKEPORT FLORIDA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY.
ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[CrazyC83]

Red IR. Could be seeing our next Fay here if it doesn't go out to sea.

Next Fay? How would Gustav-to-be do such?

[HURAKAN]

The wording of the TWO gives trackers a better sense of hope.

[cycloneye]

The wording of the TWO gives trackers a better sense of hope.

Yes,the 8 AM one was a downer,but this 2 PM one is a lifter for those who like to follow cyclones.Lets see what happens in the next few days with this.

[Gustywind]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 191759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 37W S OF 17N WITH
A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BROAD
AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW
ANIMATION WITH A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL LOW OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 36W-39W.

[HURAKAN]

[Hurricaneman]

If this survives, could Fay influence the movement of this low a week or so from now

[cycloneye]

After being too weak for classification,ssd dvorak gives 94L 1.0/1.0 this afternoon.

19/1745 UTC 13.0N 37.3W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[Gustywind]

19/1745 UTC 13.0N 37.3W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean
94 L is up to 1.0 !

[Gustywind]

After being too weak for classification,ssd dvorak gives 94L 1.0/1.0 this afternoon.

19/1745 UTC 13.0N 37.3W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Posting in the same time, i give you a gold ex aqueo medal

[cycloneye]

After being too weak for classification,ssd dvorak gives 94L 1.0/1.0 this afternoon.

19/1745 UTC 13.0N 37.3W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Posting in the same time, i give you a gold ex aqueo medal

You are in the Oylimpics spirit. Anyway,the system looks good this afternoon.Lets see if it persists and that is the key.