ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

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Wthrman13
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10241 Postby Wthrman13 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 2:51 pm

Sihara wrote:Thank you for the explanations. So divergence at the upper levels involves thunderstorms that will affect Fay - this is one of the most fascinating storms to watch, seems to want to defy all forecasts and logic.

Our area sat right in the center of the cone all weekend, to be completely missed when Fay decided she had a mind of her own. Can't help but wonder what she'll do next.


Btw - I liked the photos, too - thanks for posting.


Divergence aloft simply means that air in the upper levels is moving outward from a point. You can think of it as leaving something of a partial vacuum. If air is moving away from a region aloft, the pressure will fall at the surface because there is less air above that point. This leads to convergence of air in the low levels to replace the "lost' air. There is a lot of divergence aloft over Fay, which helping drop the pressure in the center and intensify the low-level winds blowing in toward the center.

Note, it has nothing to do per se with instability or even thunderstorms, but the process above can help create a favorable environment for thunderstorms.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10242 Postby cpdaman » Tue Aug 19, 2008 2:52 pm

NW wobble on radar or just a center rotation, her eastward progress has come to a halt over last hour

i think she is busy thinking who's lawn she forgot to water
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10243 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 19, 2008 2:54 pm

Tonight it should nudge that right core back over water. Dry air mixing in now due to land.

I would say pretty much on track for Melbourne exit maybe a touch north.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10244 Postby ColdFusion » Tue Aug 19, 2008 2:55 pm

cpdaman wrote:NW wobble on radar or just a center rotation, her eastward progress has come to a halt over last hour

i think she is busy thinking who's lawn she forgot to water


I posted on the last page that I thought I might be seeing a NNW wobble, but others immediately said NNE, so I went to sit in the corner with the dunce hat on.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10245 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 19, 2008 2:56 pm

662
WTNT51 KNHC 191950
TCEAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
400 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

AT 4 PM EDT...2000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS ABOUT 15 MILES...25 KM...WEST OF OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA.


$$
FORECASTER STEWART/AVILA
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10246 Postby Noles2006 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 2:56 pm

ColdFusion wrote:
cpdaman wrote:NW wobble on radar or just a center rotation, her eastward progress has come to a halt over last hour

i think she is busy thinking who's lawn she forgot to water


I posted on the last page that I thought I might be seeing a NNW wobble, but others immediately said NNE, so I went to sit in the corner with the dunce hat on.


Looks to me like she's weakening pretty steadily now...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10247 Postby sfwx » Tue Aug 19, 2008 2:57 pm

ZCZC MIATCEAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FAY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
400 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

AT 4 PM EDT...2000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS ABOUT 15 MILES...25 KM...WEST OF OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA.


$$
FORECASTER STEWART/AVILA
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10248 Postby ColdFusion » Tue Aug 19, 2008 2:58 pm

Noles2006 wrote:
Looks to me like she's weakening pretty steadily now...


I'll agree with that as well...
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Derek Ortt

#10249 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 19, 2008 2:59 pm

it is NOT wobbling to the NW
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Derek Ortt

#10250 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 19, 2008 2:59 pm

it also is not weakening that much
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Re:

#10251 Postby ColdFusion » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:00 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:it is NOT wobbling to the NW

Ok, I'll go back in the corner.
Hey whats this scribbled on the wall about Honduras?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10252 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:00 pm

she is either stalled or tilting towards the nnw IMO :double:
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Re:

#10253 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:01 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:it is NOT wobbling to the NW



LOL..Agree..Convection still expanding East...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10254 Postby hazmat » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:04 pm

she doesn'tappear to be weakening...certainly by the wind and rain I'm getting she doesn't feel to be weakening either.
To my untrained eyes she seems to still be feeding of the energy in the Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10255 Postby jinftl » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:06 pm

Something to keep an eye in the coming days...models notoriously flip flop, esp. that many days out. The real-time and more immediate threats are no doubt front and center now. Way too soon to sound any kind of alarm for New Orleans...too many variables...and thankfully not every storm...even in the N.O. area...will be a katrina each time.

SoupBone wrote:I believe the latest EURO brings her in near the LA/MS border which is close enough to New Orleans. I don't see why this hasn't been talked about at all on here.
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#10256 Postby hiflyer » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:06 pm

Make it about 8 kts course 10 degrees.....

interesting......
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10257 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:07 pm

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10258 Postby SoupBone » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:08 pm

jinftl wrote:Something to keep an eye in the coming days...models notoriously flip flop, esp. that many days out. The real-time and more immediate threats are no doubt front and center now. Way too soon to sound any kind of alarm for New Orleans...too many variables...and thankfully not every storm...even in the N.O. area...will be a katrina each time.

SoupBone wrote:I believe the latest EURO brings her in near the LA/MS border which is close enough to New Orleans. I don't see why this hasn't been talked about at all on here.


I agree we are still 5+ days out even if it heads straight over to the LA/MS border. I just wonder how there hasn't been more discussion as to her eventual departure from Florida. Although I can see the Floridians really have their hands full right now. :lol:
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10259 Postby cpdaman » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:08 pm

i wonder if we can get any word out of lake okeechobee concerning surge on N side

gusting 65-70 mph on north end sustained 47 mph

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... p?ID=ML001
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10260 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:11 pm

SoupBone wrote:
jinftl wrote:Something to keep an eye in the coming days...models notoriously flip flop, esp. that many days out. The real-time and more immediate threats are no doubt front and center now. Way too soon to sound any kind of alarm for New Orleans...too many variables...and thankfully not every storm...even in the N.O. area...will be a katrina each time.

SoupBone wrote:I believe the latest EURO brings her in near the LA/MS border which is close enough to New Orleans. I don't see why this hasn't been talked about at all on here.


I agree we are still 5+ days out even if it heads straight over to the LA/MS border. I just wonder how there hasn't been more discussion as to her eventual departure from Florida. Although I can see the Floridians really have their hands full right now. :lol:


The NHC does not "officially" have Fay going back into the GOM.....as of now.
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