ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10281 Postby njweather » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:26 pm

N2Storms wrote:
The NHC does not "officially" have Fay going back into the GOM.....as of now.


Yes they do:

Image

Both the 3 and 5 day tracking cones include the GOM.

As the NHC says, focus on the cone, not the line.
Last edited by njweather on Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10282 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:27 pm

It seems to be wobbling around a fixed point.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10283 Postby paintplaye » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:27 pm

SoupBone wrote:
jinftl wrote:Something to keep an eye in the coming days...models notoriously flip flop, esp. that many days out. The real-time and more immediate threats are no doubt front and center now. Way too soon to sound any kind of alarm for New Orleans...too many variables...and thankfully not every storm...even in the N.O. area...will be a katrina each time.

SoupBone wrote:I believe the latest EURO brings her in near the LA/MS border which is close enough to New Orleans. I don't see why this hasn't been talked about at all on here.


I agree we are still 5+ days out even if it heads straight over to the LA/MS border. I just wonder how there hasn't been more discussion as to her eventual departure from Florida. Although I can see the Floridians really have their hands full right now. :lol:


The NHC does not "officially" have Fay going back into the GOM.....as of now.[/quote]



Bingo...and until they start buying into this scenario I'm not biting one bit...despite the criticism the NHC takes IMO they are extremely efficient and very seldom make monumental miscalculations...I realize that it makes for great fodder on the board but IMO it is going to more closely the GFDL model and make another landfall in S. Ga or S. Carolina.[/quote]

While I agree that the national weather service is pretty good on their predictions etc. I do think y'all are looking at the line to much. Yes the line does not point in the gulf but if you look at the cone it has a lot of the gulf and a lot of land in it. I am saying that if you say it isn't going to happen, then a lot of times it does happen.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10284 Postby cpdaman » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:28 pm

TheBurn wrote:Definitely see some kinda movement NW at the tail end... :eek:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html


ya she was........but if you turn it on high ......she gives the impression it's a sort of loop (around her self) and then she will turn back to the direction she was going...or not lol
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10285 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:28 pm

I watch the GFDL run for 94L last night and in the corner there was Fay making a loop inside the interior of FL exiting around Tampa.....hmmmmm
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10286 Postby NFLnut » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:34 pm

NFLnut wrote:Sorry. FAY ain't turning "NORTH" for a while. That LOW pressure front angling across Florida from approx Tampa to just south of New Smyrna is controlling any sudden northward moves. And thank God for that front. Just north of Orlando, there is hardly any wind and we've only gotten about two or three short (maybe 5 minutes each), very light mists of rain since about 10:00am. That LOW pressure front is doing a number on the north end of FAY!


paintplaye wrote:I strongly disagree. I think the ridge is building back and Fay is starting to feel the effects. I mean just look at the radar it is not going the same direction it was a hour ago.




I'm not sure that you're disagreeing with me .. but ..

I've been watching the radar closely since 7:00am. In fact, you can draw a line diagonally from Tampa, northeastward to NSB and clearly see the delineation of the LOW front. It has VERY clearly been having an effect upon the symmetry of FAY. And I have also been looking out my window all day, and you can hardly tell that a Trop. Storm is just 60 miles to my south because of it.

Additionally, the "eye" on radar is looking a little ragged of late as well.
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#10287 Postby Steve » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:34 pm

>>Correct me if I'm wrong and feel free to delete if this is off topic but I believe that the East to West storm would be the 2nd worst scenario for New Orleans of course taking intensity into account. We still have a few days to see where she will go but it might interesting if anything even close to that scenario play out. Right now I'm just enjoying the show and hoping all you Floridians stay safe.

Not really sure. Worst case is the ESE to WNW approach south of the MS River where the water gets dragged across the entire SE part of the state after building up along the coast. I'm guessing the "other worst case scenario would be a Cat 5 hitting directly on N.O. from any direction as that pretty much trumps it all. Otherwise, I don't know.

>>An East to West entry would be the worst case scenario for anyone along the northern Gulf Coast

Hard to say for you guys. I'd be willing to bet that for Mobile, something coming in really slow from the S/SSE would be bad as water was directed into the Bay and riversheds down that way (Mobile Bay is funnel shaped). Alternatively, something sitting off the Mouth of the River for a day or two piling the water up and then crashing you probably would be pretty bad too.

However, my absolute worst case scenario is the track of Fay combined with Edouardo circa 2002 when Edouardo basically came in WSW across NE FL and into the Gulf. Had it been a major and run about 100 miles closer to shore, chaos and panic would have ensued for all of us. I'll never forget Barometer Bob (whereever he's at these days) screaming at people about the cloud direction and how he was sure it was coming back. Mets and other high-end posters riddiculed him until he turned out to be correct. No one said anything after that.

Sorry for the threadjack.

Lots of excessive Doppler Estimated Rainfall out of the Miami NWS. Will be interesting to see the official totals in some of these locations.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10288 Postby NFLnut » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:38 pm

ROCK wrote:I watch the GFDL run for 94L last night and in the corner there was Fay making a loop inside the interior of FL exiting around Tampa.....hmmmmm



I would rarely hang my hat on the GFDL!
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#10289 Postby Steve » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:41 pm

>>I would rarely hang my hat on the GFDL!

While I hear what you're saying, it's one of the preferred models of the NHC. So I guess it's safe to assume you don't work there? :?:

Steve
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10290 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:41 pm

Pressure still dropping in Okeechobee City

Image

Look at this one,

989MB - edit: correction 988 and still dropping

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MS65DW
Image
Last edited by tolakram on Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10291 Postby gtsmith » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:41 pm

ROCK wrote:I watch the GFDL run for 94L last night and in the corner there was Fay making a loop inside the interior of FL exiting around Tampa.....hmmmmm


I commented on the same thing last night and was told not to pay attention to what the model for 94L does with Fay as that model is focused on 94L and not Fay...
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#10292 Postby CronkPSU » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:42 pm

NFLnut-we have had a very easy time of it but in the last hour, the winds have really started to pick up and gotten really dark

all depends if Fay decides to come further north or go more east...who knows what effects we will have until it starts moving again
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10293 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:42 pm

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND...
GEORGIA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER.

Predicting a hurricane landfall
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Re:

#10294 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:43 pm

extradited wrote:OH MY GOD! Did you guys see the video of the 'kite surfer' who challenged Fay?

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/weathe ... arder.wfor


We saw that video clip last night on our local station and I'm sorry that the guy is apparently in "critical condition" but, I couldn't help laughing 'til my ribs hurt over that one!! :lol:

All that I could think of was, "Stupid People Tricks"!!! :lol:
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10295 Postby cpdaman » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:43 pm

can someone/anyone tell me wether we should be looking at the CIMSS 200-700mb chart for steering flow for this storm, and wether thru that chart you can determine the location of the ridge from that, as well as use the 3 hour trend button to see the ridge building or not.

because it appears that several hours ago the lines going SSW/NNE along florida east coast got shifted west (but still going the same angle) and that just recently in the last hour, the new chart shows these lines push back east and oriented more SW/NE

would the slowing n drift be telegraphed by the older data and the new data represent a more NE turn (as opposed to NNE)

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html
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#10296 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:43 pm

I'm seeing a sudden expansion of the outflow from Fay to the west in the mid and upper levels into the Gulf.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10297 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:44 pm

holy crap, that should wake people up. It looks like we have a station (posed above) very close to the center. Still quite strong.

new page so I'll repost.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MS65DW
Image
Last edited by tolakram on Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10298 Postby Air Force Met » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:44 pm

tolakram wrote:It seems to be wobbling around a fixed point.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html


On the HD radar...I have a movement of 11 miles at 020 from 1930Z-2030Z. So...NNE at 7.5 mph over the last 1.5 hours.

I've got it zoomed in to 70M resolution...so I am pretty certain on the movement over the last 1 1/2 hours...20 frames.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10299 Postby gtsmith » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:44 pm

OK, one more pic...this is a pile of red ants floating in the flooded street...nasty
Image
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10300 Postby Pigsnibble » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:46 pm

I find it very interesting that Fay has actually intensified over land. Its maintained 60kt winds and formed a nice eye-wall after landfall and had something like a 10mb pressure drop.

Hate to see it when it reaches the ATL....
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