Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[GeneratorPower]

Interesting to see that the GFS ensemble mean is now way out in the Gulf Mexico. HPC stated at one time that that was one reason not to believe the GFS solution of coming into the Gulf (because ensemble mean did not have it), but wonder what the reasoning will be this time. Only time will tell...hopefully it will not be too bad!

Maybe it will bring us some rain! hsvwx, can you tell us what agency you are with?

[Steve]

>>Yeah, we thought the same too in August 2005. Idiotic LBAR. I guess a blind squirrel found its nut.

LMAO. I wasn't even thinking about going there. But yeah, there was that one time when LBAR got it right. (obligatory )

Steve

[storm]

may be similar synoptic set up as elena in 1985

[Bluefrog]

ok on the current models that have Fay re-entering the GOM ..... what are the wind speeds for the ones that the eventual landfall is in panhandle fla, or mobile or miss gulf coast areas ...thx for replies

[Ivanhater]

Ok 18z nam is out..further south than last run which kept it inland,,this is as far as it goes..

[ronjon]

From NHC 5 PM Disc.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER WESTWARD TURN. IF SO...SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON.

[Rainband]

From NHC 5 PM Disc.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER WESTWARD TURN. IF SO...SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON.

yea interesting

[Ivanhater]

From NHC 5 PM Disc.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER WESTWARD TURN. IF SO...SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON.

Any further south and the middle of the track will be in the gulf..

[ROCK]

Got to love that cone....LMAO....seriously Ivan we talked about this last night. There was a GFDL run on 94L last night that had Fay in the corner making a sharp west turn and back onto the GOM. Of course when I went to Fay's GFDL run it had a complete different solution......

NHC must be thinking something to put that wording in....


0z GFS run tonight will be nice to see.....Ivan do you still need the operational?

[Ivanhater]

Got to love that cone....LMAO....seriously Ivan we talked about this last night. There was a GFDL run on 94L last night that had Fay in the corner making a sharp west turn and back onto the GOM. Of course when I went to Fay's GFDL run it had a complete different solution......

NHC must be thinking something to put that wording in....


0z GFS run tonight will be nice to see.....Ivan do you still need the operational?

Lol yeah Rock, I know we kind of laughed it off, but with the GFS and Euro showing the same solution, perks me up, tonights runs should be interesting..and yeah Ive been looking for the GFS operational plot...

[ROCK]

You guys need to nav this site to find the GFS ensemble. It wont let me post for some reason....

Way out in the GOM.....

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh

click hurricane guidance / early track GFS ensemble.

[attallaman]

New Euro out...not Good

Not good for whom? Please explain if you would.

[Brent]

New Euro out...not Good

Not good for whom? Please explain if you would.

That shows a significant hurricane just east of New Orleans and pounding the MS/AL/FL Panhandle coast.

[Sabanic]

New Euro out...not Good

Not good for whom? Please explain if you would.

That shows a significant hurricane just east of New Orleans and pounding the MS/AL/FL Panhandle coast.

Definitely would not be good for those on the NGC.

Including myself

[Bluefrog]

CRAP ... that's all I can say.

[txwatcher91]

I don't know what this means, but I just noticed something interesting. Low level clouds over Tennesse, Arkansas, Louisiana, etc. are moving west while the high level clouds over the same area, especially the tall thunderstorms, are moving to the east/northeast. Anyone know what this means, as if the ridge was building in the high storm tops should be moving west also, right?

[Steve H.]

Of course the NHC is thinking otherwise. Fay has not gone as far north as she was projected to. She MAY make it to offshore the Melbourne coast, and if she does she won't go that much further north (or even get suppressed to the south) before making a left turn to the west. The ridge will be on top of her. and if the ridge is where the models show, she will move west without the big bend the NE/N NW/W. Rather it will be suppressed and just make the westward move. That's actually pretty simple - she'll get blocked and change direction. Not rocker science.

[attallaman]

New Euro out...not Good

Not good for whom? Please explain if you would.

That shows a significant hurricane just east of New Orleans and pounding the MS/AL/FL Panhandle coast.

Well that wouldn't be good for me here in Biloxi. How strong of a hurricane might you be talking about? No more than a CAT 1? Possibly a CAT 2? Thanks for your comments.

[ronjon]

GFS Ensemble Plot - Westward Bound - I'd say so.

[Ivanhater]

Ah thank you ron!