ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Just Joshing You]

Where did Fay make landfall exactly? I'm plotting a graph.

[tolakram]

Very close to the center...

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MS65DW

[tailgater]

it is NOT wobbling to the NW

Dreek has spoken

[hiflyer]

Orlando KMCO airport now 'in it'
MCO SP 2107 192105Z 04021G27KT 3SM +RA BR SCT013 BKN017 OVC022
24/23 A2969 RMK AO2 PK WND 04027/2101 P0007 T02390228

[Just Joshing You]

I think this will emerge about 20-25m from Melbourne

[SoupBone]

I think this will emerge about 20-25m from Melbourne

With her constant wobbling it's hard to believe she will emerge at all. I guess I'll go sit in the corner now...

[Agua]

Dare I say intensifying again?

The storm looks like it's traveling nearly due north on that radar.

Waiting for Derek to flog you. j/k

[windycity]

I agree. Fay has most of us wondering what shes going to do next. On top of it derek"s remark about her fear of the water made me laugh. I hope all of the pro's get some much needed rest after this is all over!!!

[NFLnut]

FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER
WESTWARD TURN. IF SO...SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON.


So is the NHC biting yet guys?

Although I made a somewhat disparaging remark re: the GFDL earlier, you DO realize that the models showing that hard left turn you are referring to are the BAMM, and BAMS. Those two had FAY several days ago headed straight up the WEST coast to Mobile by now. Those two are probably the worst.

[CrazyC83]

Why not just send her to Disney World and let her ride herself out?

[paintplaye]

FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER
WESTWARD TURN. IF SO...SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON.


So is the NHC biting yet guys?

Although I made a somewhat disparaging remark re: the GFDL earlier, you DO realize that the models showing that hard left turn you are referring to are the BAMM, and BAMS. Those two had FAY several days ago headed straight up the WEST coast to Mobile by now. Those two are probably the worst.

Yes and the GFDL had it going all the way to Canada.

[storm]

track similar to elena in 1985 is not out of the question, she only stayed a short distance offshore and was able to attain cat 3 status

[txwatcher91]

I don't know what this means, but I just noticed something interesting. Low level clouds over Tennesse, Arkansas, Louisiana, etc. are moving west while the high level clouds over the same area, especially the tall thunderstorms, are moving to the east/northeast. Anyone know what this means, as if the ridge was building in the high storm tops should be moving west also, right?

[TideJoe]

FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER
WESTWARD TURN. IF SO...SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON.


So is the NHC biting yet guys?

Although I made a somewhat disparaging remark re: the GFDL earlier, you DO realize that the models showing that hard left turn you are referring to are the BAMM, and BAMS. Those two had FAY several days ago headed straight up the WEST coast to Mobile by now. Those two are probably the worst.

I believe the EURO and GFS Ensemble have this making a west turn and landfalling a 3rd time on the northern GOM.

[cpdaman]

OK, one more pic...this is a pile of red ants floating in the flooded street...nasty

amazing display of courage, those poor ants on the fringes must be dead, all so the higher ups can continue on with the species LOL

any way i am looking for rainfall estimates

miami doppler shows 10-12 inch estimates over a nice chunk of central palm beach from about delray to lantana streaking NW, but on the melbourne site it only shows about 6 , so i'm confused.

[tolakram]

There is 986MB (unofficial station) and calming winds.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MS65DW

[ronjon]

FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER
WESTWARD TURN. IF SO...SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON.


So is the NHC biting yet guys?

Although I made a somewhat disparaging remark re: the GFDL earlier, you DO realize that the models showing that hard left turn you are referring to are the BAMM, and BAMS. Those two had FAY several days ago headed straight up the WEST coast to Mobile by now. Those two are probably the worst.

Actually the NHC is refering to the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global models.

[cpdaman]

also i wonder if she had done this NNE drift from a position about 50 miles SSE (thru the duration of the lake) wether she would have strenghened more?

[wxman57]

1hr movement 2026Z-2126Z toward 011 degrees 5.5 kts.

2hr movement 1926Z-2126Z toward 022 degrees at 5.3 kts.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Why not just send her to Disney World and let her ride herself out?

Yeah!! Let her get stuck in the "it's a small world" ride and slowly go so insane that she just implodes!!!