ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[heartland15]

Can someone please post the website that shows the spaghetti models together,or the most recent one if nothing else.

thanks

[Jason_B]

If Fay does start to get stronger once over the Atlantic and if there will be a ridge pushing her back W/WSW across the peninsula...reminds me of a storm we had a few years ago. Not saying it will be just like THAT storm but just comparing the situation.

[KWT]

Yep CronkPSU, whilst not super warm they are easily warm enough to support a hurricane under this sort of upper conditions.

[LaunchGal]

OMG, when is this thing going to go away? 6 more hours... 6 more hours...

Raining horizontal now. Again.

Need a pulling-out-hair icon folks.

[CronkPSU]

Can someone please post the website that shows the spaghetti models together,or the most recent one if nothing else.

thanks

here is the latest GFS ensemble...no seriously it is

[wxman57]

2hr movement 2021Z-2221Z toward 28.9 degrees at 5 kts. It's 40nm from the water in this direction (8hrs).

[Just Joshing You]

PSU, I seriously hope that's a joke.

[CronkPSU]

2hr movement 2021Z-2221Z toward 28.9 degrees at 5 kts. It's 40nm from the water in this direction (8hrs).

do you think it will continue to slow down?

[wxman57]

Beware when looking at some of the Global models. For example, this morning's ECMWF initialized Fay near Key west at 12Z today. GFS was way too slow moving Fay northward today (12Z). 18Z run is better, but still appears too slow initially.

[AdamFirst]

This thing is crawling, fellas.

After an east drift, we have a northerly drift.

The flooding situation is getting more dire in PSL.

[CronkPSU]

PSU, I seriously hope that's a joke.

LOL nope, going over to the models thread...some funny comments over there about it

[tolakram]

Visible looks amazing:



Be sure to watch the loop before nightfall.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

On both satellite and radar Fay appears to have made a quick jump to the east / northeast.



I'm going to choose this station for the time being to monitor the progress of Fay

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MAR488

[KatDaddy]

Thats just crazy! Is really the GFS ensemble??

[Clipper96]

(LMAO at GFS spaghetti - pick your poison.)

On Melbourne close-range radar, I'm seeing a diminishing of echoes at the northeast edge of the screen that had been representing Fay's connection to the trough.

I'm left wondering if the more eastward and slower movement represents the beginning of a cyclonic wobble or loop south of the ridge before the expected west track begins.

[Jason_B]

Nearly looks stalled out on the last few frames of that radar loop, HUGE flooding concerns.

[Ivanhater]

Beware when looking at some of the Global models. For example, this morning's ECMWF initialized Fay near Key west at 12Z today. GFS was way too slow moving Fay northward today (12Z). 18Z run is better, but still appears too slow initially.

Well about the Euro, it still had the position correct at 72 hours . so from there on out looks good, and the high resolution Euro,I was told initialized just fine

[CronkPSU]

is this thing still doing so well because of the enormous heat of the everglades and Lake O...it is almost close enough to water again that I can't see the core collapsing too much over the next 8-10 hours

[KWT]

wxman57, pretty much bang on the GFDL foward speed, as you say other models are too slow and thus this will get a good bit further north and possibly east before it does eventually respond by heading back towards the west again.

Also the further east if gets the closer it gets to the warmer waters, got a feeling we could see a decent hurricane if the GFDL track is correct.

[RL3AO]

is this thing still doing so well because of the enormous heat of the everglades and Lake O...it is almost close enough to water again that I can't see the core collapsing too much over the next 8-10 hours

No. But it will collapse when it gets back over the Atlantic probably.

[jaxfladude]

Hey Jaxfldue, been since 64 since J-ville has seen a hurricane up close and personal. How do you think this area will fare. We did not do so well with Frances and Jean and those were only tropical strom force winds. I'm thinking things could be ugly up here with 70+ mph sustained winds. Lots of trees down.

Better that than a higher Cat hurricane....this okay all things considered....Better to have a home intact and w.o power than no home no power and no anything...