ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[CronkPSU]

is this thing still doing so well because of the enormous heat of the everglades and Lake O...it is almost close enough to water again that I can't see the core collapsing too much over the next 8-10 hours

No. But it will collapse when it gets back over the Atlantic probably.

LOL!!! probably!

[deltadog03]

Beware when looking at some of the Global models. For example, this morning's ECMWF initialized Fay near Key west at 12Z today. GFS was way too slow moving Fay northward today (12Z). 18Z run is better, but still appears too slow initially.

Well about the Euro, it still had the position correct at 72 hours . so from there on out looks good, and the high resolution Euro,I was told initialized just fine

Hey, bud... you can't say that...we are not out to 72 hours from 12z this morning.

[KWT]

By the way say it does take the GFDL track, has it got enough time and good enough conditions for RI towards at least a decent cat-2/3?

[MiamiensisWx]

Better that than a higher Cat hurricane....this okay all things considered....Better to have a home intact and w.o power than no home no power and no anything...

In a major hurricane, the majority of the populace typically experiences Cat 1/2 winds. Only a very narrow radius along the coast experiences Cat 3+ conditions. Cat 1 winds toppled thousands of pines and destroyed residences in interior Mississippi during Katrina (see Hattiesburg as an example).

I'm not so sure that you should downplay Cat 1 winds... take it from a person who went through Wilma.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Better that than a higher Cat hurricane....this okay all things considered....Better to have a home intact and w.o power than no home no power and no anything...

In a major hurricane, the majority of the populace typically experiences Cat 1/2 winds. Only a very narrow radius along the coast experiences Cat 3+ conditions.

I'm not so sure that you should downplay Cat 1 winds... take it from a person who went through Wilma.

Listen to Miami you dont want to be holding up you sliding glass windows for 4 hrs straight...<man i screwed that up>

[tolakram]

I can't understand how people can downplay tropical storm force winds much less hurricane. I knwo when we gets winds around here of 40 to 50 MPH it's a big deal.

[Ivanhater]

Beware when looking at some of the Global models. For example, this morning's ECMWF initialized Fay near Key west at 12Z today. GFS was way too slow moving Fay northward today (12Z). 18Z run is better, but still appears too slow initially.

Well about the Euro, it still had the position correct at 72 hours . so from there on out looks good, and the high resolution Euro,I was told initialized just fine

Hey, bud... you can't say that...we are not out to 72 hours from 12z this morning.

True Chris, I meant in relation to the model consensus

[jaxfladude]

Will a 3/4 strike with the same Named Tropical System within the same state be enough for retirement due to unusual activity of said Named Tropical System regardless of not being a major hurricane during the life said of said Named Tropical System ?

[KWT]

Yep cat-1 conditions are very powerful, here in the UK we get lows that have cat-1 force gusts and they are really powerful, I remember getting 85mph gusts and it slamming my window shut so hard i thought the glass would shatter, also took some tiles off my roof as well!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Melborne is the check point, if it moves north of that then you can forget it ever getting back into the gulf of Mexico. If it goes south of that then we have to watch it carefully.

Below Melborne
1# If it slows down and moves out over the ocean in 24 hours, it won't strengthen and won't have a lot of time to do so, but that would be the highest chance of a track into the gulf.

2# Faster movement out into the ocean, possible stronger storm, but the chance it could get to far north.

This post is unoffical and made by a none pro, please see the nhc.

[CronkPSU]

Will a 3/4 strike with the same Named Tropical System within the same state be enough for retirement due to unusual activity of said Named Tropical System regardless of not being a major hurricane during the life said of said Named Tropical System ?

depends on the damage done...i say it is getting much closer to reaching that point...especially if it strengthens to a cat 2 and crosses over already flooded areas

[cpdaman]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

seems like fay is in pretty weak steering and the periphey (err those lines off the east coast of fl (going ssw/NNE) have moved about 75 miles east during the day. not sure if this gives her a little more room off the coast?

[AL Chili Pepper]

I can't understand how people can downplay tropical storm force winds much less hurricane. I knwo when we gets winds around here of 40 to 50 MPH it's a big deal.

I don't think it's as much downplaying 40 to 50 mph as thankful that they're not a lot higher.

[MiamiensisWx]

Keep in mind that forward speed and duration of winds can greatly enhance or decrease damage. If Fay becomes a strong TS/Category 1 hurricane and moves slowly inland near the Florida/Georgia border, areas would experience TS winds (with Cat 1 "streaks") for a sustained period of time. If a TC moves faster, damages are typically reduced over a broad area. Minimal TS winds are typically minor issues, but they produced extensive vegetative damage and some structural damage when Frances moved extremely slowly across east-central Florida.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Looking at the gom wv loop looks like the trof is starting to pull away leaving fay behind. Notice the outflow building much further west in the gulf then earlier today. That would explain gradual slow down over the last several hours. Also what kind of impact if any will the high centered south of LA in the gulf have on Fay? Could it actually merge with the ne high?

[MiamiensisWx]

I can't understand how people can downplay tropical storm force winds much less hurricane. I knwo when we gets winds around here of 40 to 50 MPH it's a big deal.

I don't think it's as much downplaying 40 to 50 mph as thankful that they're not a lot higher.

I was referring to Category 1 winds and strong TS (65-70 mph) conditions...

Honestly, people would have a different perspective if they encountered Cat 1 conditions; I went through Wilma's eyewall. Most people do not realize that they may grossly overestimate winds at their location, so they truly underestimate the intensity of Cat 1/2 winds (and ESPECIALLY major hurricane conditions). The media hype isn't a remedy; uninformed reporters often estimate winds of hurricane force when they are actually experiencing low end/moderate TS conditions.

[KWT]

Matt this wil lbe off the coast in about 9-12hrs time easily, current motion suggests just 8hrs or so but may slow down just a touch more.

The latest GFDL gives it a good 2 days over the waters in the Atlantic before finally making its landfall, plenty of time given its presentation to become a hurricane.

[deltadog03]

Oh, I know!

[jabber]

I can't understand how people can downplay tropical storm force winds much less hurricane. I knwo when we gets winds around here of 40 to 50 MPH it's a big deal.

I don't think it's as much downplaying 40 to 50 mph as thankful that they're not a lot higher.

Right... I will take 40 to 50 over 100+ like we had with Wilma... the 300 roof tiles I lost did not like that.

[ronjon]

Fay looks like she's primed and ready to intensify once she reaches the Atlantic - superb outflow - spiral feeder band developing on SE side -anticyclonic flow at the upper levels.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html