ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[93superstorm]

Still impressive how there is still an eye on radar but not as good it was early but still holding on well. If it still has a well defined or even slightly ragged eye in open water, who knows what she willl do next

[cpdaman]

moved more in the last 20 minutes than it did in the last hour. east also btw

[RL3AO]

Because of the shape of the coast, it is about 29nm from water if it moves anywhere between 45 and 90 (NE to E). It is longer if it goes north of 45 degrees.

[txwatcher91]

Only about 25-30 miles from the ocean and moving E at 7kts over the last 30 minutes.

[tolakram]

Station east of center showing steady drop in pressure. Wobble, movement, stayed tune.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yeah Deltadog those two models clearly handling Fay the best right now, I was a little bit of a skeptic when i saw the HWRF exit at Vero Beach but it looks like it may have nailed it!

Yes i pointed this out earlier...IMO GFDL has been Golden with Fay all week

[Noah]

If she goes in the atlantic earlier than expected, then what?

[burasgal01]

If Fay gets back into GOM, where does GFDL have her going.

[RL3AO]

Looks to be moving due east now and appears to have picked up a little speed. I don't know what this storm is doing.

[jinftl]

If Fay doesn't gain the expected latitude before the time period when a turn back to the west is possible...couldn't that have huge implications down the road....

if she enters the Gulf (big 'if) at a latitude comparable to Orlando or Tampa....and it is a strong ridge that is causing her to move west....that would seem to shift the track much further west...how will she gain latitude so fast to hit the NE Gulf region when being steered by the ridge?

[cpdaman]

Looks to be moving due east now and appears to have picked up a little speed. I don't know what this storm is doing.

as of right now NOBODY does

[KWT]

Then Noah it probably will get more time to strengthen no matter what track it takes and possibly given the easterly track a better shot at getting into the gulf.

Heading towards the Atlantic as has been noted, also the eastern eyewall is now open, suggesting this is weakening as has been expected.

[Blown Away]

wunderground's radar loop has it move at a pretty decent clip again..looks like due east

I can tell you the E movement makes sense because the winds are again gusting over 30 mph now in Martin County.

[Harry Cane]

Slightly off topic, but how stupid can people be?
check the video.
http://www.wjno.com/cc-common/news/sections/newsarticle.html?feed=244038&article=4117332

[cpdaman]

across the bottom of my screen it says "tropical weathe statement" new information and that is it so far

perhaps they will extend the tropical storm wind warnings since this may head due east

and give palm beach some more winds tonite?

[LCfromFL]

This link shows radar for last 3 hours - and even has the official 'forecast path' to boot! (looks east to me in the last few frames - but hard to tell with the eye getting so rough looking)

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=3194,21328260,3194_21169358:3194_21178594:3194_21198343:3194_21198347&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

[OuterBanker]

Just a question. Between Bertha and Fay have we not equaled or bettered named storm days from the entire 2007 season. Seems this year they just want to last forever as opposed to last year when storms would form then die. I have to keep reminding myself it's only just past mid August.

[cpdaman]

Slightly off topic, but how stupid can people be?
check the video.
http://www.wjno.com/cc-common/news/sections/newsarticle.html?feed=244038&article=4117332

you know what i'm sorry if i'm out of line, but this guy is in critical condition (last i heard) and he was one of the hundreds upon hundred of wind surfers out, i think it would be better to stop insulting him as he lie in the hospital.

[KWT]

Eyewall now only half across on the western side so does look like weakening is still occuring.

Seems like foward motion is now about 5kts after picking up a little speed.

[RL3AO]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
926 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
GLADES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PALMDALE...MOORE HAVEN...LAKEPORT...

* UNTIL 1230 AM EDT

* AT 919 PM EDT...EMERGENCY OF OPERATION CENTER OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT
WATER WAS STARTING TO APPROACH HOMES IN THE MUSE...ORTONA...AND
PALMDALE AREAS. THEY ALSO REPORTED THAT WATER WAS STARTING TO COVER
PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 29...74 AND WEST 78.

DOPPLER RADAR WAS ALSO INDICATING THAT A RAIN BAND FROM TROPICAL
STORM FAY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT GLADES COUNTY THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON TOP OF
THE ALREADY OF THE 9 TO 11 INCHES THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1230 AM
EDT FOR GLADES COUNTY.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. THE WATER MAY OBSCURE DEEP CANALS OR PONDS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO A SAFER LOCATION IMMEDIATELY.

REPORT FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.