ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

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jaxfladude
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Peninsula

#10821 Postby jaxfladude » Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:04 pm

Track moved south a bit...stay well south Fay....better yet just go poof...
Sorry to those down south but I am not ready to get my fair share of getting a hurricane...
Prayers to all 8-)
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fasterdisaster
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#10822 Postby fasterdisaster » Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:04 pm

She should be on the shore by about 3:30 AM. Her speed is really erratic though so it's just a guess.
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NFLnut
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Peninsula

#10823 Postby NFLnut » Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:05 pm

capepoint wrote:
lonelymike wrote:NHC just issued a hurricane watch for the California Coast from LA to SF. Also just issued tropical storm watch for London. :ggreen:


ut-uh. Jim Cantore starts live reports from the mouth ot the Thames River in the morning....... :cheesy:
And Mike Sidell is headed to Capetown.




Where's Stephanie Abrams?! :eek:

As soon as someone finds out, I'm jumping in the car and taking my camera! :P
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Sanibel
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Peninsula

#10824 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:05 pm

Clue:

The deep band heading into Canaveral has started to orient in a different arc towards a center closer to shore than the other overland bands. A sign of intentions to redevelop.
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CYCLONE MIKE
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#10825 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:07 pm

Clipper 96, by all forecasts around here, that is supposed to hang around for tomorrow then start to pull north and weaken and move away being replaced by high pressure. Will have to wait and see.
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fasterdisaster
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#10826 Postby fasterdisaster » Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:07 pm

Yes indeed sanibel which is why it really is reminiscent of an ERC.
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#10827 Postby LowndesCoFire » Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:07 pm

NHC 11:00pm forecast track shows a depression in my area (South GA) Friday at 8:00pm. NHC Intensity Probability Table showing 33% TS and 25% TD for same time frame. :?:
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lonelymike
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Peninsula

#10828 Postby lonelymike » Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:07 pm

NFLnut wrote:
capepoint wrote:
lonelymike wrote:NHC just issued a hurricane watch for the California Coast from LA to SF. Also just issued tropical storm watch for London. :ggreen:


ut-uh. Jim Cantore starts live reports from the mouth ot the Thames River in the morning....... :cheesy:
And Mike Sidell is headed to Capetown.




Where's Stephanie Abrams?! :eek:

As soon as someone finds out, I'm jumping in the car and taking my camera! :P


Jim Cantore in drag :eek: Seen her up close don't waste the gas.
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txwatcher91
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Re:

#10829 Postby txwatcher91 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:08 pm

fasterdisaster wrote:Yes indeed sanibel which is why it really is reminiscent of an ERC.


Would this be a first if it begins and completes an ERC over land?
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jaxfladude
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Peninsula

#10830 Postby jaxfladude » Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:08 pm

Sanibel wrote:Clue:

The deep band heading into Canaveral has started to orient in a different arc towards a center closer to shore than the other overland bands. A sign of intentions to redevelop.


NO! WE want a storm cancel.....Fay *Spears* has officially overstayed her welcome....MRS. Spears come back in six and just take a FISH tour in 2014...
Last edited by jaxfladude on Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Peninsula

#10831 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:08 pm

Image

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 30
MILES... 45 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA.
Last edited by tolakram on Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Derek Ortt

Re: Re:

#10832 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:08 pm

wxman57 wrote:
shah8 wrote:Well, there's Isidore, but what about Wilma? She had looked pretty ragged but still put on a show after leaving Florida.


Wilma was interacting with a cold front and transitioning to an extratropical cyclone after leaving Florida.


the only chance this has of doing anything significant is through the UL divergence over the system
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lonelymike
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Re:

#10833 Postby lonelymike » Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:09 pm

LowndesCoFire wrote:NHC 11:00pm forecast track shows a depression in my area (South GA) Friday at 8:00pm. NHC Intensity Probability Table showing 33% TS and 25% TD for same time frame. :?:


Pity the Carolinas won't see this they need the rain bad. Course I'm sure Fla will be happy to dontate some.
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#10834 Postby funster » Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:09 pm

Wow. Fay already looks to be making a minor comeback on radar. Very likely to become a hurricane IMHO. Truckloads of crow are being made ready for those foolish enough to doubt Fay. She has longed to be a hurricane her whole life.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Peninsula

#10835 Postby LaunchGal » Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:13 pm

Northern Brevard County

Statement as of 10:52 PM EDT on August 19, 2008


... Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect...


... New information...
a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the offshore marine waters
from Sebastian Inlet to Flagler Beach... from 20 to 60 nautical
miles.

Residents of east central Florida... and all marine interests in
the area... are strongly advised to remain informed of the latest
forecast with Tropical Storm Fay. Given the inherent uncertainties
in the forecast... additional hurricane watches may be needed
overnight or in the morning.

Tropical Storm Fay is moving slowly and somewhat erratically as
it heads toward the East Coast of south Brevard and Indian River
County. It is forecast to move offshore during the overnight
hours.

Fay is forecast to gradually strengthen as it moves offshore...
later approaching minimal hurricane strength. Once offshore... the
confidence in Fays forecast track and intensity is low. As a
result... a Hurricane Watch has been issued... on top of the current
Tropical Storm Warning... for the offshore waters from Sebastian
Inlet to Flagler Beach... from 20 to 60 nautical miles from the coast.

Elsewhere... tropical storm warnings continue for all of east central
Florida inland counties... coastal counties... and marine areas.


... Next update...
the next local statement will be issued shortly and provide
important details regarding the developing threat of each tropical
cyclone hazard... and the nature of their potential impact upon the
area.
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CrazyC83
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Re:

#10836 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:14 pm

funster wrote:Wow. Fay already looks to be making a minor comeback on radar. Very likely to become a hurricane IMHO. Truckloads of crow are being made ready for those foolish enough to doubt Fay. She has longed to be a hurricane her whole life.


If Fay holds an eye when she emerges, look out.

Yeah I wasn't sure if the trend was temporary, since she had been going up and down at times today.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Peninsula

#10837 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:14 pm

The turn to the east and the quicker pace was not forecast. No blame, but to me it indicates the models might be missing something. Looks like she'll be over water in 2 hours ... of course it's silly for me to predict anything about this storm. :)
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#10838 Postby Just Joshing You » Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:15 pm

A good rule of thumb when dealing with Fay is to predict the exact opposite of what is likely to happen.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Peninsula

#10839 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:17 pm

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MAR488
Image

I might get lucky with another close pass here.
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Raebie
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#10840 Postby Raebie » Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:17 pm

Any chance at all this will go to the Carolinas?
Last edited by Raebie on Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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