ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Sanibel]

See the big wobble the big eye did? Like a heave? Things are happening.


986 pressure could be past d-max fluxes.

[Frank P]

Notice the convection bands on the SE that "knife" in towards the center on a different angle than the others. This is sometimes the sign of a storm about to get stronger (not always but there's a good example happening right now if you are interested)

Yeah, shows up well with this loop.. look carefully and you can see the small center move off to the NNE at the end... very close to the NHC path ATTM... also notice the NHC forecast plot change during the run...

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

[Clipper96]

She's waiting until the last pro-met hits the sack.

[senorpepr]

Good news... I appear to have fixed the charts from plotting that extremely bogus observations. Basically, it was ingesting a CWOP (citizen's weather observation program) ob from University Village, FL that was reporting bad pressure data. I turned off CWOP data and we're golden.

[CrazyC83]

Maybe she'll suddenly speed up and race northward at 40 mph?

[Sanibel]

Sorry Bostonseminole. You might be right. On the better radar the center could be covered by the core convection on the south side and is actually moving more NE than NNE. This will only get it over water faster if correct.

[Clipper96]

12:46EST radar: small core eyewall reforming. It's a very tiny eye too.

Not a hint of shear on WV, so this would intend to imply quick re-strengthening offshore.

[bostonseminole]

Sorry Bostonseminole. You might be right. On the better radar the center could be covered by the core convection on the south side and is actually moving more NE than NNE. This will only get it over water faster if correct.

is hard to tell, but there may have been a small NNE wobble earlier, now back to NE it seems.. almost on the water now.

[njweather]

Maybe she'll suddenly speed up and race northward at 40 mph?

For what it's worth:

Hurricane Emily in 1987 set the speed record in the Atlantic hurricane basin, with a motion over 6 hours from 44.8 N 42.5 W to 49.0 N 36.0 W which is a motion of 70.3 mph

[Sanibel]

Setting alarm for 5am to check back in when this makes its move. Back then. This is really interesting and it's only a TS.

[baitism]

12:46EST radar: small core eyewall reforming. It's a very tiny eye too.

Not a hint of shear on WV, so this would intend to imply quick re-strengthening offshore.

Noticed that too.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

[paintplaye]

Looks to be moving due north. Watch out for a possible NW movement next.

[HURAKAN]

Sleeping time!! Later today it should be interesting.

[hiflyer]

Looks like 78-80 sst's nearshore....plenty of energy to feed from.....getting a thin feeder thru here back down in Broward...100 miles south....

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looking at radar, she'll be offshore before the next advisory. Let's see if her center can form deep convection like her NE feeder bands.

Edit: Sorry, I meant 3am. Is the NHC still doing those hourly advisories?

[CrazyC83]

Looking at radar, she'll be offshore before the next advisory. Let's see if her center can form deep convection like her NE feeder bands.

Edit: Sorry, I meant 3am. Is the NHC still doing those hourly advisories?

No since the eye disappeared at 11 pm.

[SunnyThoughts]

You know you are addicted to tropical weather when you are up at this time of night...watching a storm move OFF shore as opposed to ON shore.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The bigger eye is taking over and is centered on Melborne. It sould pull that smaller eye/center into the middle of it when it moves totally out into the Atlantic. Yes, it appears to be moving north-northeastward. Still believe that the nhc has this spot on, I can't believe how good they have gotten this year. It is almost like they have god come down in tell them what and where a storm is going.

Pretty amazing.

I expect it to follow fairly close to the nhc track. In my option expect this to become a 70 knot hurricane before making landfall in Northern Florida or Southern GA.

This is not offical forecast please pay attention to the amazing nhc.

[funster]

Pretty amazing how quickly Fay is filling in on radar. Might be partially offshore already.

[fasterdisaster]

This is getting...odd...to say the least.