ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Sanibel]

If shear is weak I'd give it a go even at 39W with that convection. Think we have another slow to get going system here.

[Scorpion]

Black spots on IR. Should develop in the next few days.

[Praxus]

Hmm convection looking great at the moment, that's for sure.

[CrazyC83]

And the NHC continues to be really conservative on this. Maybe they are too busy eating crow as a result of Fay?

Actually I think they have done a pretty darn good job with Fay. What's your damage with them?

They have done a good job considering the circumstances, but NO ONE could have predicted Fay strengthening over land.

[Weatherfreak000]

Is this a joke? That's NOT a Tropical Depression? Or at least Red on the TWO?


NHC is really fooling around...if that convection expands this may intensify to a TS before they even give it notice.

[cheezyWXguy]

Is this a joke? That's NOT a Tropical Depression? Or at least Red on the TWO?


NHC is really fooling around...if that convection expands this may intensify to a TS before they even give it notice.

It looks nice, but im not sure the llc still exists at this time. Its kinda hard to see any rotation at the surface anymore. I still think development is possible over the next 36 to 48 hours, but it is not to be rushed and shear is still marginal over the area.

[RL3AO]

What can you do. Buoys show a closed circulation for two days now. Quikscat has shown a closed ciruclation for two days now. The NHC just doesn't want to deal with it because they must assume it will dissipate within a couple days.

[Gustywind]

Interresting TWD....


AXNT20 KNHC 200556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 38W S OF 17N WITH
A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N DRIFTING W NEAR 5 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS
INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION S OF 15N WITH A WELL DEFINED
MID LEVEL LOW OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LOW CENTER.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 12.5N BETWEEN
40W-42W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 37W-40W.

[Gustywind]

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 38W HAS BEEN HELD BACK DUE TO
THE LOW CENTER THAT IS NOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE BUT IT
APPEARS THE WAVE HAS LEFT THE LOW BEHIND AND WILL BE RELOCATED
CLOSER TO 46W AT 20/0600 UTC.

[Jason_B]

I don't think they are "fooling around", they're probably just more concerned with Fay right now and 94L is in the middle of nowhere so it's not like it's that big of a deal to put it on the back burner for now. If it starts to crank up once it gets closer to the islands then I'm sure they'll make a move.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 200549
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
1000 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[RL3AO]

125N, 400W, 25, 1006, LO,

Changed from DB to LO.

[cheezyWXguy]

125N, 400W, 25, 1006, LO,

Changed from DB to LO.

Well i notice another mb down, but what do lo and db mean?

[RL3AO]

DB = distrubance
LO = low

Normally it goes directly from DB to TD. Usually LO is for the remants of a system that still has a closed low but doesn't have the convection needed to be a TD.

[fasterdisaster]

This is stupid.

[cheezyWXguy]

This is stupid.

excuse me?

[fasterdisaster]

This is stupid.

excuse me?

I mean the fact that the NHC doesn't upgrade this let alone give it red on the TWD. It's not going away, it's been stable for 2 days, quikscat says closed, so it is pretty dumb.

[cheezyWXguy]

This is stupid.

excuse me?

I mean the fact that the NHC doesn't upgrade this let alone give it red on the TWD. It's not going away, it's been stable for 2 days, quikscat says closed, so it is pretty dumb.

Oh I thought this was one of those pessimistic posts against 94 that says theres no way it will develop. Another misunderstanding, lol. I must be very tired right now.

But yeah it does look very good. It should have a red by now though. I know why they didnt though. Current path forecasted by the nhc on tafb i believe suggests increased shear, while the more southern path is less prone to shear, and at this point is beginning to look more likely. And the reason its not a td yet is because the nhc wants consistency. It fits the definition of a td right now, but so did it last night, and convection fizzled by morning. If convection maintains organization tomorrow, then I would predict a td either late tomorrow or thursday.

[bahamaswx]

Quite a bit bigger than the last time I checked on it. QS and buoy obs certainly seem to indicate the presence of a well-formed LLC. No idea why this hasn't been classified yet.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Quite a bit bigger than the last time I checked on it. QS and buoy obs certainly seem to indicate the presence of a well-formed LLC. No idea why this hasn't been classified yet.

I don't know of a reason my self. But maybe they went to wait 12 more hours to see if it can hold onto its convection.

We will all have to see.