ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[fasterdisaster]

Someone explain to me why the satellite IR images should the area to the south and southeast of the center almost devoid of convection, but the land based radar sites show storms building pretty quickly...

Motion looks NNW to me

IR doesn't record storm activity, it records the temperature of cloud tops. Usually this coincides almost perfectly with storm activity but not always.

As for NNW, have to disagree, as looking at those two frames she has definitely moved closer to water in the last two hours. Maybe you meant NNE?

[southerngale]

Why don't you all just upload the image to Imageshack or another program, then post it? When you post the image from the original source, the image will change eventually. It's nice to be able to see the correct image that matches the comments that go along with the post. That's especially handy once the thread is archived. Otherwise, there's nothing there.

[baitism]

It seems to be paralleling the coast. At least going by the radar at wunderground. It also seems to be trying to wrap convection around the smaller "eye."

[fasterdisaster]

It seems to be paralleling the coast. At least going by the radar at wunderground. It also seems to be trying to wrap convection around the smaller "eye."

Yeah that's true, wunderground's only over half an hour though so usually doesn't represent long term movement. I could be wrong (obviously) though.

[RL3AO]

Its too close to the radar to see anything usefull ciruclation wise. Its best to use surface observations. If the winds are from the north or northeast in Melbourne, then you know the circulation is off shore.

[Nexus]

Someone explain to me why the satellite IR images should the area to the south and southeast of the center almost devoid of convection, but the land based radar sites show storms building pretty quickly...

Motion looks NNW to me

You can slap a radar overlay onto this loop to see how they coincide:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Melbourne International Airport
Lat: 28.11 Lon: -80.63 Elev: 35
Last Update on Aug 20, 2:53 am EDT


Rain Fog/Mist

77°F
(25°C) Humidity: 90 %
Wind Speed: SW 9 MPH
Barometer: 29.34" (993.6 mb)
Dewpoint: 74°F (23°C)
Heat Index: 78°F (26°C)
Visibility: 2.50 mi.


It is now north of Melbourne. Even if it where to turn within the next 18-24 hours or less to force it into the gulf. There would not be much of a cyclone lefted to move into the gulf.

[fasterdisaster]

Melbourne International Airport
Lat: 28.11 Lon: -80.63 Elev: 35
Last Update on Aug 20, 2:53 am EDT


Rain Fog/Mist

77°F
(25°C) Humidity: 90 %
Wind Speed: SW 9 MPH
Barometer: 29.34" (993.6 mb)
Dewpoint: 74°F (23°C)
Heat Index: 78°F (26°C)
Visibility: 2.50 mi.


It is now north of Melbourne. Even if it where to turn within the next 18-24 hours or less to force it into the gulf. There would not be much of a cyclone lefted to move into the gulf.

No it is not north of Melbourne. The last advisory had it 15 miles SSE and frankly I highly doubt it's moved 15 miles NNW since then.

[Clipper96]

Fay really does hate the water - she got a whiff, and is now heading NNW on a parallel track just inland along the coast.

[fasterdisaster]

I really don't see the NNW you guys are coming up with. It looks to me that right now it's not doing much of anything, it's just sitting.

[Downdraft]

Fay definitely doesn't like water does she? I'd say she did wobble slightly NNW but if anything right now she's hugging coast and trying to make up her mind if she wants to get her feet wet. Never saw a tropical system that loved land so much.

[mpic]

I'm glad she doesn't like water especially if she re-emerges into the GOM. Am I correct in assuming that the storms we are having in SE TX will keep her away from here?

[Deb321]

I personally hope she doesn't get back in the water. They could use the rain in Atlanta so maybe she would like to go to Atlanta.

[fasterdisaster]

Dang, she's in the exact same spot she was an hour ago.

[Ad Novoxium]

Fay definitely doesn't like water does she? I'd say she did wobble slightly NNW but if anything right now she's hugging coast and trying to make up her mind if she wants to get her feet wet. Never saw a tropical system that loved land so much.

Arthur? At least Fay had operational advisories while over water. Arthur didn't have ONE...til post-season.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_pres.html

Pressures are rising across the mid Atlantic states. Also cloud tops at near 32-33 north are becoming flaten. That means the high is starting to build slowly.

[Deb321]

Still learning here, so what does that mean exactly Matt? Pardon my ignorance but it is so much info to learn .

[KWT]

So looks like Fay has decided to stay onland and become a mere shadow of what it could have been over water, the system really is starting to look increasingly ragged as you'd expect being inland for so long.

The only question now is does the WNW/W motion kick in straight away or does it continue to drift northwards pretty much sealing its fate?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Still learning here, so what does that mean exactly Matt? Pardon my ignorance but it is so much info to learn .

Look at a IR loop and you will see the clouds start to flaten to the north over GA. Also the pressures are rising over the mid Atlantic states....Just look at the 3 hour pressure trends. Clearly we are starting to get some ridging forming.

[Deb321]

Ok thanks Matt