ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Sean in New Orleans]

Well Fay WAS moving an hour ago, she seems to have stopped again.

This is my concern...systems that stop generally are making a direction change. It's looking more evident this morning that the system will re-enter the GOM and follow the Coast West. Not sure when it will go inland, but, the most important thing is we certainly don't want to see SW jogs or changes in direction when it is in the GOM. But, I'm thinking it will re-enter the GOM via Florida panhandle. I'm watching very closely, like all, but, I'm having an even more difficult time seeing this storm on land anywhere in AL, unless it would be S of Mobile along Dauphine Island....

[tolakram]

Fay hates the water. I predict she'll appear to be heading back into the gulf but end up hugging the coast (mostly inland of course) all the way to New Orleans, then she'll take a sharp right turn and come up to Cincinnati, avoiding the rivers of course.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Fay hates the water. I predict she'll appear to be heading back into the gulf but end up hugging the coast (mostly inland of course) all the way to New Orleans, then she'll take a sharp right turn and come up to Cincinnati, avoiding the rivers of course.

As long as the system stays E of New Orleans and we remain on the W side, I'm fine with your thoughts. I don't care if I get one drop from this system. We've had rain every day this week at my house based on radar observations (I'm still out of town). We're good in New Orleans and don't really need the rain.

[stormy1970al]

This storm has a mind of her own. Oh wait...she is a woman. You know how we change our minds constantly. Maybe she has a bad case of PMS. :lol

Now on a serious note...Just my personal opinion....I think anyone along the Northern Gulf Coast needs to be on the look out. Even if this storm does not strengthen the amount of rain is going to be a lot. Those living in low lying areas need to start taking precautions. My biggest fear is that this storm will move over the GOM and restrengthen some and no one knows where she is going. Maybe she is going to skirt the Northern Gulf Coast from FL to LA. Who knows? I guess it is a wait and see game and when and I should say IF they put this are under warnings or watches I am going to be one busy person at the local Target...Working.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[

[Sabanic]

Well Fay WAS moving an hour ago, she seems to have stopped again.

This is my concern...systems that stop generally are making a direction change. It's looking more evident this morning that the system will re-enter the GOM and follow the Coast West. Not sure when it will go inland, but, the most important thing is we certainly don't want to see SW jogs or changes in direction when it is in the GOM. But, I'm thinking it will re-enter the GOM via Florida panhandle. I'm watching very closely, like all, but, I'm having an even more difficult time seeing this storm on land anywhere in AL, unless it would be S of Mobile along Dauphine Island....

If she were to come ashore on Dauphin Island take my word for it, Mobile would be hit head on.

[jhpigott]

i know we've got radar to track Fay, but take a look at this visible loop - looks like she is at a dead stop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[LaunchGal]

Not much in the way of wind damage to report in this part of the county. Everyone severely affected just south of me are in my thoughts.

Back yard in a much-desired lull of rain. Canal leads to the intracoastal waters. High tide is 2 1/2 hours out from the time this pic was taken this morning:


Watching Fay closely (still). I was hoping she would have put a little distance between herself and this area by now.

White flag is waving.

[TheBurn]

i know we've got radar to track Fay, but take a look at this visible loop - looks like she is at a dead stop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Almost looks like she jogs a bit back south at the end doesn't it!

[dixiebreeze]

NRL -- pressure dropping in Fay:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

[LaunchGal]

Hurricane/TS Agnes sat on me it seemed like for days here in PA:

http://www.lrp.usace.army.mil/pao/h-agnes.htm

June 23 [1972], Agnes was centered directly over the upper Allegheny basin and its rains were lashing the entire district. In three days as much as 11 inches of rain fell on parts of the district, averaging from 5 to 9 inches in a 50-mile band along the western slope of the mountains from a point south of Pittsburgh to New York state. Flood waters moving down swollen tributary streams on the way toward Pittsburgh and Wheeling would bring the region the greatest flood in its history.

[Ed Mahmoud]

065
URNT12 KNHC 201129
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062008
A. 20/11:16:50Z
B. 28 deg 24 min N
080 deg 41 min W
C. NA mb 1367 m
D. 42 kt
E. 048 deg 8 nm
F. 123 deg 046 kt
G. 015 deg 024 nm
H. EXTRAP 994 mb
I. 16 C/ 1527 m
J. 18 C/ 1526 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. E15/20/8
N. 12345/
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 2306A FAY OB 06
MAX FL WIND 46 KT NE QUAD 11:07:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
EYE OVER LAND

It has a closed eye as a 40 or 45 knot tropical storm?

[MGC]

NHC keep bending the forecast track southward. Would not be surprised if Fay moves back over the GOM but it will be a close call. I've enjoyed the nearly 3 years without a TC......MGC

[carversteve]

Is it just me or has she gotten stronger?? Really looks good on the visible!!

[O Town]

Thx for the advice guys.
By the time they had to go to school, 2 hours since my above post, things have calmed down alot. I sent them, I think it'll be alright. I drove mine as I always do and its only 3 minutes away, if. I don't believe she will strengthen by the time schools out, its early day today.

LCfromFL, I have 3 girls. Twins that are 10 in 5th grade and a 6YO in 1st grade.

[DESTRUCTION5]

She is drinking this morning based on that Sat imagery..

[gtalum]

I've enjoyed the nearly 3 years without a TC......MGC

The last one was kind of a big one, wasn't it?

[SouthFLTropics]

i know we've got radar to track Fay, but take a look at this visible loop - looks like she is at a dead stop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Almost looks like she jogs a bit back south at the end doesn't it!

Shame on you for saying that...We don't want her back...she has overstayed her welcome.

SFT

[Sabanic]

NHC keep bending the forecast track southward. Would not be surprised if Fay moves back over the GOM but it will be a close call. I've enjoyed the nearly 3 years without a TC......MGC

YEP HAS HER COMING STRAIGHT UP I-10 TO MOBILE FOR NOW. THAT COULD DROP FURTHER SOUTHWARD IF SHE STARTS TO TURN MORE TOWARDS THE WEST TODAY

[Ed Mahmoud]

065
URNT12 KNHC 201129
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062008
A. 20/11:16:50Z
B. 28 deg 24 min N
080 deg 41 min W
C. NA mb 1367 m
D. 42 kt
E. 048 deg 8 nm
F. 123 deg 046 kt
G. 015 deg 024 nm
H. EXTRAP 994 mb
I. 16 C/ 1527 m
J. 18 C/ 1526 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. E15/20/8
N. 12345/
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 2306A FAY OB 06
MAX FL WIND 46 KT NE QUAD 11:07:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
EYE OVER LAND

It has a closed eye as a 40 or 45 knot tropical storm?

I guess they wouldn't drop sondes over land, but wouldn't that be a most excellent coffee table conversation piece?

[NativeFloridaGirl]

We got a call last night around 7:30p that schools would be open here in Martin County, but we received another call at 11:00p that they changed their minds and would not open schools. Flooding is our big problem here.

~Beth~