ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[gatorcane]

The 12z GFS is already too slow in Fay's current movement. At Fay's current speed and heading, it should be near the coast in 9-11 hours, much earlier than the GFS is showing.

Agreed. This will be out over water later this evening...not tomorrow at 12Z like the GFS is showing.

AFM..hmmm.I disagree so we shall see what happens

Hey AFM had to go back and look at our "when it would be over water debate" from about noonish yesterday recall I forecasted appx early this morning or today....want some crow ?

[jhpigott]

i know we've got radar to track Fay, but take a look at this visible loop - looks like she is at a dead stop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Almost looks like she jogs a bit back south at the end doesn't it!

i didn't want to say it . . .

mets, seeing the models have been trending further south . . . is it out of the realm of possibility to see Fay push a little futher off shore then move WSW to W across south-central Florida across the state and out to GOM

[tronbunny]

Mine's in High School, and we're in NW Osceola.
I took him to the bus stop. It's an early release day.
It may not be a good idea for folks in Kenansville or Yeehaw, but I have no issue with this section of Orange-Osceola being business as usual.

[LaunchGal]

I guess they wouldn't drop sondes over land, but wouldn't that be a most excellent coffee table conversation piece?

Got my baseball glove ready.

[TideJoe]

i know we've got radar to track Fay, but take a look at this visible loop - looks like she is at a dead stop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Almost looks like she jogs a bit back south at the end doesn't it!

i didn't want to say it . . .

mets, seeing the models have been trending further south . . . is it out of the realm of possibility to see Fay push a little futher off shore then move WSW to W across south-central Florida across the state and out to GOM

I think their silence on the matter is a good indication that there's too much uncertainty right now to answer that question. Derek has probably overheated his brain trying to come up with his next forecast...... he was starting to sound pretty frustrated on his last one.

[PurdueWx80]

in taking a look at a 6-hour WV loop this morning, i'm thinking there will probably be some erratic motion through the morning hours as the trough over the northeast fights the building ridge across the mid-atlantic states. however, the powerful trough approaching british columbia is already pumping the ridge over central north america, so a W or WSW motion looks like it'd take hold later today as the easterlies rebuild (as the 00Z ECMWF indicates). you can already see this happening in the outflow that is expanding west over the GOM a little more quickly now.

eventually, fay will turn north once it feels the weakness left behind by the plains upper low, but i could see the storm being in the central gulf once that happens, especially if it stays farther south, becomes stronger, and in turn, pumps the ridge a bit more to the north.

[capepoint]

You know what is the cause of all of this strange behavior. The laws of nature were written using 9 planets. Now that Pluto is only a rock, it is throwing everything out of whack!

[AdamFirst]

Oyy, this thing is still here

[TideJoe]

in taking a look at a 6-hour WV loop this morning, i'm thinking there will probably be some erratic motion through the morning hours as the trough over the northeast fights the building ridge across the mid-atlantic states. however, the powerful trough approaching british columbia is already pumping the ridge over central north america, so a W or WSW motion looks like it'd take hold later today as the easterlies rebuild (as the 00Z ECMWF indicates). you can already see this happening in the outflow that is expanding west over the GOM a little more quickly now.

eventually, fay will turn north once it feels the weakness left behind by the plains upper low, but i could see the storm being in the central gulf once that happens, especially if it stays farther south, becomes stronger, and in turn, pumps the ridge a bit more to the north.

So what you're saying is similar to the EURO and GFS....... back to the GOM and possibly a Northern GOM landfall? Not good for those folks....... they've taken a beating over the last decade.

[jhpigott]

in taking a look at a 6-hour WV loop this morning, i'm thinking there will probably be some erratic motion through the morning hours as the trough over the northeast fights the building ridge across the mid-atlantic states. however, the powerful trough approaching british columbia is already pumping the ridge over central north america, so a W or WSW motion looks like it'd take hold later today as the easterlies rebuild (as the 00Z ECMWF indicates). you can already see this happening in the outflow that is expanding west over the GOM a little more quickly now.

eventually, fay will turn north once it feels the weakness left behind by the plains upper low, but i could see the storm being in the central gulf once that happens, especially if it stays farther south, becomes stronger, and in turn, pumps the ridge a bit more to the north.

interesting. i'm sitting here in NE Palm Beach County and while I doubt Fay would track far enough south to bring her center of circulation back over me, i'm beginning to think i could see the southern edge of her core rain field . . . . . . again

[DESTRUCTION5]

in taking a look at a 6-hour WV loop this morning, i'm thinking there will probably be some erratic motion through the morning hours as the trough over the northeast fights the building ridge across the mid-atlantic states. however, the powerful trough approaching british columbia is already pumping the ridge over central north america, so a W or WSW motion looks like it'd take hold later today as the easterlies rebuild (as the 00Z ECMWF indicates). you can already see this happening in the outflow that is expanding west over the GOM a little more quickly now.

eventually, fay will turn north once it feels the weakness left behind by the plains upper low, but i could see the storm being in the central gulf once that happens, especially if it stays farther south, becomes stronger, and in turn, pumps the ridge a bit more to the north.

interesting. i'm sitting here in NE Palm Beach County and while I doubt Fay would track far enough south to bring her center of circulation back over me, i'm beginning to think i could see the southern edge of her core rain field . . . . . . again

Agree she is eraticly driftin SE it appears and the rainshield is expanding SWD....
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... B&loop=yes

[AdamFirst]

interesting. i'm sitting here in NE Palm Beach County and while I doubt Fay would track far enough south to bring her center of circulation back over me, i'm beginning to think i could see the southern edge of her core rain field . . . . . . again

You are...it's drifting southward

[tolakram]

Sit and spin...

[Steve H.]

And look at the convection building to the NE of her, heading NW. She seems to be close enough to water to gain strength, and with a ridge building over, the conditions i believe are getting more favorable....so she has a support system.

[CronkPSU]

can not believe how she stopped right when she hit the coast and is now just sitting there...what a crazy storm

[AdamFirst]

And look at the convection building to the NE of her, heading NW. She seems to be close enough to water to gain strength, and with a ridge building over, the conditions i believe are getting more favorable....so she has a support system.

Or maybe she latched onto land and is getting better organized again

[crazycajuncane]

And look at the convection building to the NE of her, heading NW. She seems to be close enough to water to gain strength, and with a ridge building over, the conditions i believe are getting more favorable....so she has a support system.

Or maybe she latched onto land and is getting better organized again

I'll take that explanation for $500!

[LaunchGal]

[tropicwatch]

[So what you're saying is similar to the EURO and GFS....... back to the GOM and possibly a Northern GOM landfall? Not good for those folks....... they've taken a beating over the last decade.[/quote]

Here in the panhandle the timing would be bad. The past week and a half we have had drenching rains every day except for today. The ground is soaked which would make it easier for trees to uproot. In 2004 I had an oak tree come down and fell on my neighbors house. In 2005 my neigbors oak tree came down on my house. Don't need anymore of that!

Tropicwatch

[Sanibel]

Now the trough edge is venting directly W-E. The High must be right on top of it now.

GFDL did poorly. I expected more water for the center than this stall. It's been a long time since we had a stationary stall like this. I don't pretend to know the science behind GFDL but I suppose it overestimates intensity and deals with hurricane-level dynamics instead of subtle systems with weaker dynamics. This is interesting but will probably fade overland as the High wins and pushes it west. Nothing to spend all day looking at here. TWC channel track did well last night.

Still have 15mph from the west here and thin band like clouds overhead with warm sun.