ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]

Oh Where is Miss Fay Going ?

[Category 5]

Oh Where is Miss Fay Going ?

Well at least it will be easy to answer in the form of a question.

[AdamFirst]

Seems like it's pushing a bit south in the last few frames on Melbourne radar

[HurricaneBelle]

I guess they wouldn't drop sondes over land, but wouldn't that be a most excellent coffee table conversation piece?

Got my baseball glove ready.

It would probably ending up plunking the windsurfer guy on the head as he was being discharged from the hospital.

[HurricaneBelle]

Sit and spin...

This is becoming Florida's version of Juan 1985. It would have been interesting to see how many pages/similar comments would have been made had Storm2K been around then. Of course it would have been called Storm1K since we were in the 20th century.

[Steve]

>>Bastardi cried uncle this morning too - said a piece of energy escaped to the NE and, with it, the chances of reforming and heading north.

Didn't see that, but I wasn't looking for it either. Usually when a piece of upper energy heads off NE/NNE you can watch it on IR or WV. Again, I missed it as it probably just went up through that trough. He's really stubborn sometimes to the point of lunacy. I realize Joe is one of the best, but he just latches onto something, sure he's right, and then just can't see other solutions because he is so convinced on how right he is. Initially, he had my idea except further north (North Carolina vs. NC/SC Border). Then he was determined it was heading straight up 81W. One of these days he's just going to have to learn that no matter what you think you know about tropical weather and fluid dynamics, the only safe bet is that there really isn't a safe bet - particularly mid-season.

>>He made mention of the fact that he can't find a track in history that conforms to the GFS depiction either.

Not with the intensity, none that I know of. Edouard in 2002 is the closest thing I can think of. Its remants eventually got entrained into Fay 2002 (See wikipedia. Link won't work, but if you google Tropical Storm Edouard 2002, link will come up to the wiki article).

Edouard was probably farther north than where Fay will begin her migration back, but it's similar. Another one I was thinking of was a storm that hit Florida/GA and then kind of rained itself out on the way back down into Louisiana (was that Alberto 1994???).

Anyway, I will be interested in what the GFS and Euro do on their 12z runs. I think the other models - the ones with somewaht of a Gulf bias - are indicating a hit somewhere between Walton County, FL (Mirarmar Beach/Destin) and Harrison County, MS (Long Beach/Pass Christian/Gulfport). Incidentally, that's been my target area for a big one this year, but I'm not so sure that Fay is really going to become all that wound up or strong. Some globals are trending weaker over time, so it's possible that despite her energy, Cat 1 might be top. Of course it might not either.

I don't have a call at this point. I want to see Fay actually get back to the Gulf, where she's at latitude wise, what happens with the strong upper low centered in the Dallas area (along with the front draping down from it) and what's happening with the high coming down from Canada. It should be fairly obvious by tomorrow or Friday who faces the greatest threat and how great of a threat Fay actually might be. I wouldn't suggest anyone get overly nervous at this point because no one really has any ideas what we might be dealing with. Possibilities include an inland rainstorm in the SE to a Hurricane in the Gulf.

This is not an official forecast and is the opinion of the poster only. Do not rely on this information to save either you or your family's lives or you might not live to regret it or send me hate mails.

Steve

[Category 5]

Looks like she's moving back toward water, I forecast weakening followed by rapid strengthening after landfall.

This is one of the strangest TC's I can remember.

[gboudx]

>>what happens with the strong upper low centered in the Dallas area (along with the front draping down from it)

FWIW, this Upper Low is causing flooding problems here and has been the drought buster we needed. However, it is weakening and is expected to move NE into the Plains. A piece of energy is expected to hang back over this area and continue some rain chances into the week. How that affects Fay, I have no idea.

[CronkPSU]

Sit and spin...

This is becoming Florida's version of Juan 1985. It would have been interesting to see how many pages/similar comments would have been made had Storm2K been around then. Of course it would have been called Storm1K since we were in the 20th century.

i had to look that one up...and yeah that one would have driven us nuts as well

[NativeFloridaGirl]

Is it really moving back south?

I don't know how much more rain Martin and St. Lucie counties can take. My whole neighborhood is a giant lake already.

~Beth~

[HurricaneBelle]

He's really stubborn sometimes to the point of lunacy. I realize Joe is one of the best, but he just latches onto something, sure he's right, and then just can't see other solutions because he is so convinced on how right he is.

He's been even moreso since Ivan. He had been calling for a Pensacola-Mobile hit while Ivan was in the Caribbean and the NHC had it going to Tampa. A day or so later, with the NHC track still aimed at Tampa, he changed his mind and agreed with them. No sooner than that happened the NHC started trending west with Ivan and sure enough, it made landfall where he had originally predicted before changing his mind.

He kicked himself for weeks after that, so now he ain't gonna change his thoughts until the storm just about makes landfall (or perhaps thereafter, given Fay!).

[Steve]

>>FWIW, this Upper Low is causing flooding problems here and has been the drought buster we needed. However, it is weakening and is expected to move NE into the Plains. A piece of energy is expected to hang back over this area and continue some rain chances into the week. How that affects Fay, I have no idea.

Assumed it would lift out and the trailing part would split back, but that was an assumption at best. Hope you guys are alright gboudx.

Steve

[Category 5]

Is it really moving back south?

I don't know how much more rain Martin and St. Lucie counties can take. My whole neighborhood is a giant lake already.

~Beth~

She appears to be moving east over the Cape now.

[CronkPSU]

where exactly is the LLC now...is it that huge empty spot in the middle or just a poorly organized spot near Satellite Beach that may or may not end up over water

tracking the "eye" last night, it should be near Sat Beach

[Category 5]

where exactly is the LLC now...is it that huge empty spot in the middle or just a poorly organized spot near Satellite Beach that may or may not end up over water

tracking the "eye" last night, it should be near Sat Beach

It looks like it's right over Cape Canaveral, we'll know when the advisory comes out in a few minutes.

[Steve]

I remember that Belle as I was still a subscriber that year. He did get the second part of the Ivan call (UKMET solution) and was right about it coming all the way back down through the Atlantic and Gulf. And I don't blame him. But at the same time, sometimes when something is right there before you, you accept it. The NHC has been doing a spectacular job this year FWIW.

Steve

[CronkPSU]

He's really stubborn sometimes to the point of lunacy. I realize Joe is one of the best, but he just latches onto something, sure he's right, and then just can't see other solutions because he is so convinced on how right he is.

He's been even moreso since Ivan. He had been calling for a Pensacola-Mobile hit while Ivan was in the Caribbean and the NHC had it going to Tampa. A day or so later, with the NHC track still aimed at Tampa, he changed his mind and agreed with them. No sooner than that happened the NHC started trending west with Ivan and sure enough, it made landfall where he had originally predicted before changing his mind.

He kicked himself for weeks after that, so now he ain't gonna change his thoughts until the storm just about makes landfall (or perhaps thereafter, given Fay!).

he does seem to go for the juggular though more than most forecasters and have storms hitting the most populated areas with a higher intensity forecast but hey, he is no worse at forecasting than these models

[gboudx]

>>FWIW, this Upper Low is causing flooding problems here and has been the drought buster we needed. However, it is weakening and is expected to move NE into the Plains. A piece of energy is expected to hang back over this area and continue some rain chances into the week. How that affects Fay, I have no idea.

Assumed it would lift out and the trailing part would split back, but that was an assumption at best. Hope you guys are alright gboudx.

Steve

Yeah, we're fine. I have no flooding concerns where I live. If my house flooded, just about the entire southern US from I-30 south would be underwater.

[tronbunny]

I guess they wouldn't drop sondes over land, but wouldn't that be a most excellent coffee table conversation piece?

Got my baseball glove ready.

It would probably ending up plunking the windsurfer guy on the head as he was being discharged from the hospital.

What do we need sondes for when she's sitting right on top of Canaveral/NASA/PAFB?
I think there would be a few WX instruments available there...

[hazmat]

steve...enjoy your opinion as always.
Somewhere on these pages was posted the rainfall est. for Fay. Could we really see more measureable rainfall from her?
We're soaked here in the boonies...we've had a few road closures...that are main arteries to civilization.
The cows are doing the backstroke.