ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[CronkPSU]

At 1100 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 28.6 north...longitude 80.6 west about 15
miles...20 km...north of Cape Canaveral Florida.


Fay is moving toward the north near 3 mph...6 km/hr. Fay is expected
to move very near the East Coast of North Florida today with a
gradual turn toward the northwest during the next 12 to 24 hours.


Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. These winds are occurring mostly over water well to the
east of the center. No significant change in strength is forecast
during the next 24 hours.


Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km
mainly to the east of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb...29.38 inches.

Fay is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches
over east-central and northeastern Florida...with 3 to 6 inches over
southeastern Georgia. Isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are
possible in Florida. Accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible
in the northwestern Bahamas. An unofficial report of near 16 inches
of rain was measured at Satellite Beach just to the northeast of
Melbourne Florida.

[AdamFirst]

The cows are doing the backstroke.

LOL

[CronkPSU]

from the discussion

A mid-level
ridge is forecast to develop north of Fay and this pattern should
steer the cyclone toward the west or west-northwest. This official
forecast keeps the center very near the East Coast of North Florida
for the next 24 hours and then moves the cyclone inland until it
becomes a remnant low. In the long range...some global models turn
Fay westward across North Florida and into the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico. This scenario is not likely to occur but I would not rule
out the possibility yet given the good performance of the global
models.

[tronbunny]

You know, Tom Terry of WFTV has gotten pretty bold, also.
He did actually tell everyone in Metro Orlando, back when Fay was over Key West, to relax.
We were not going to be in the NE quad. Fay was expected to track east well south of Orlando, and emerge near the Cape.
The NHC was going between a west coast northern trek and Ft. Meyers to J-ville NNE track.

At the time, I thought Tom had channeled Joe B. right into the studio.

[jlauderdal]

from the discussion

A mid-level
ridge is forecast to develop north of Fay and this pattern should
steer the cyclone toward the west or west-northwest. This official
forecast keeps the center very near the East Coast of North Florida
for the next 24 hours and then moves the cyclone inland until it
becomes a remnant low. In the long range...some global models turn
Fay westward across North Florida and into the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico. This scenario is not likely to occur but I would not rule
out the possibility yet given the good performance of the global
models.

executive summary: low track confidence

[hazmat]

well the discussion answered my rain question...isolated areas/20".
Guess the rain...along with her eye yesterday...will be her legacy.
We'll need boats.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I wonder why the NHC is setting the strength so conservatively. Based on recon data, Fay has strengthened to 60 mph.

[CronkPSU]

the ground reports at the Cape and Melbourne aren't supporting 60 mph winds so they probably went with that data

[TideJoe]

I wonder why the NHC is setting the strength so conservatively. Based on recon data, Fay has strengthened to 60 mph.

Historically, they try to remain cautiously conservative when they have little confidence in their forecast. I'm guessing they do it to keep down any media panic.

[Stormcenter]

Is it just me or does the NHC not sound too concerned about Fay's
future?

[HURAKAN]

Lake Okeechobee water level as of Aug 20, 2008

11.80 ft.

About 2 ft. below historical average for this time of year.

¡¡¡THANKS FAY!!!

The level was 11.34 ft. yesterday.

[Sabanic]

Is it just me or does the NHC not sound too concerned about Fay's
future?

I wouldn't say so much as not concerned, but rather uncertain. JMHO

[jlauderdal]

well the discussion answered my rain question...isolated areas/20".
Guess the rain...along with her eye yesterday...will be her legacy.
We'll need boats.

By jfaul4820

[CronkPSU]

Lake Okeechobee water level as of Aug 20, 2008

11.80 ft.

About 2 ft. below historical average for this time of year.

¡¡¡THANKS FAY!!!

The level was 11.34 ft. yesterday.

and that should go up even more as the runoffs make their way into the Lake plus the lake is still receiving some rain right now...that is a WHOLE lotta water in one day, that Lake is MASSIVE

[Stormcenter]

Is it just me or does the NHC not sound too concerned about Fay's
future?

I wouldn't say so much as not concerned, but rather uncertain. JMHO

I say that because the discussion is brief and mentions no concerns about major
reintensification. As matter of fact none of the models that put Fay back into
the GOM show a strong system.

[PurdueWx80]

Is it just me or does the NHC not sound too concerned about Fay's
future?

I wouldn't say so much as not concerned, but rather uncertain. JMHO

I say that because the discussion is brief and mentions no concerns about major
reintensification. As matter of fact none of the models that put Fay back into
the GOM show a strong system.

uh, except for the ECMWF, which shows rapid strengthening sunday.

[mesocyclone]

Is there a movie of Fay's landfall until now somewhere out there?

[cpdaman]

looks like a bit of a "bow" in the line of storm's racing across broward county ENE

probably effect s palm beach thru broward with some gust in the 40's

[Steve]

>>uh, except for the ECMWF, which shows rapid strengthening sunday.

Curious to see the 12z today and the 12z GFS which had previously been intensifying it a bit as well.

Steve

[wxman57]

I wonder why the NHC is setting the strength so conservatively. Based on recon data, Fay has strengthened to 60 mph.

Two reasons.

SFMR data are quite unreliable close to the coast, and there seems to be calibration issues remaining. So the SFMR values are suspect.

Another reason is that there are plenty of real-live surface observations around Fay that don't support 60 mph. Haven't even seen any 50 mph reports. Most reports around Fay's center indicate 30-40 kts.