ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[carversteve]

not yet in the navy site...

there it is


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Is that the center or eye maybe..right off shore??

[N2Storms]

[quote="Dean4Storms"]If she fails to make much more movement today to the north then she will make it into the GOM IMO and be a player for the upper Gulf Coast.[/quote]



I think M Watkins concurs with that thinking Dean...if you read his post in the Trop Analysis forum he mentions that he thinks the GFS has been the best performer with Fay and he doesn't see much more northern latitude gained...regardless it looks like it will be a rainy weekend for us.

[wxman57]

Question for those in the know.
I'm located in Ocala which is about 80 miles WNW of the center. As the rain bands approach my location they all seem to fizzle out. The same goes for most of the bands on the northern periphery.
Why is that?

That's very common for rain bands on the periphery of a storm. They weaken as they move out. They should have more staying power by this afternoon.

[gboudx]

>>Looks like New Orleans is out of the concern zone. GOOD! Hopefully we'll get some fronts down soon and we won't have any more system concerns for 2008. Have a good one!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

What in the world was alon looking at?

[chris_fit]

What a nightmare for Melbourne and nearby areas. Look at the total precip estimates so far:

That's an understatement... I have been through Jeanne and Frances in 2004... There is MUCH more flooding than in those storms from what I can see. Only minor wind damage this time though, still, For the first time ever I don't think people know how bad it really is the Eau Gallie, 192, Palm Bay Rd areas (Central & South Brevard County) We are getting clobbered.

[HURAKAN]

A strong band just passed producing a gust of 22 mph and 0.13 inches of rain.

So far from Fay: 5.29 inches of rain.

[Wthrman13]

The outflow pattern is absolutely stunning. From a meteorological point of view, I can't help but thinking what a waste of a good upper level environment!

[baitism]

The small center ("eye") seems to be trying to form pretty much right over Cape Canaveral from what I can tell.

[jhpigott]

The outflow pattern is absolutely stunning. From a meteorological point of view, I can't help but thinking what a waste of a good upper level environment!

how far off the coast would Fay need to get to tap into this near perfect outflow pattern and what are its chances of doing so??

[Ed Mahmoud]

>>Looks like New Orleans is out of the concern zone. GOOD! Hopefully we'll get some fronts down soon and we won't have any more system concerns for 2008. Have a good one!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

Lili was an October storm, and might have been a big one if it hadn't lingered over the Yucatan. The name 'Juan' sounds familiar as well. The one (barely, Jerry, 1989) hurricane in sixty years in October rule for Texas doesn't apply to Louisiana.

[Sean in New Orleans]

>>Looks like New Orleans is out of the concern zone. GOOD! Hopefully we'll get some fronts down soon and we won't have any more system concerns for 2008. Have a good one!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

What in the world was alon looking at?

Models are starting to pick up on it and I'm not that concerned anymore--once it gets to AL/MS it is going to get picked up and shoot NE. With New Orleans being on the W or SW side, I'm not concerned. In fact, it should provide for a beautiful weekend. Hopefully, once the system gets close enough it will pull down some dry air for New Orleans.

[Dean4Storms]

The outflow pattern is absolutely stunning. From a meteorological point of view, I can't help but thinking what a waste of a good upper level environment!

I was thinking the same thing, if she gets well enough off the coast for a day I see no reason why she couldn't gain hurricane status.

[CronkPSU]

i don't have a map in my bookmarks here at work but I believe it is right at the edge of where the cooler waters right onshore end (they claim upswelling is making the water cooler on the beaches this summer but only down so far on the coast)...probably doesn't need to go much further though

would help with less land interaction as well in getting reorganized if it made up about 50 miles off the coast

[cpdaman]

appears more pronounced curled banding feature Se of cape canaveral

just an obserbation of radar trends, not sure if this is a meso cyclone developing or her LLC shifting

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... b&loop=yes

but probably some of the highest gusts near this feature

[Dean4Storms]

appears more pronounced curled banding feature Se of cape canaveral

just an obserbation of radar trends, not sure if this is a meso cyclone developing or her LLC shifting

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... b&loop=yes

but probably some of the highest gusts near this feature

I've noticed that too, look like she is pushing East or ESE a bit toward that deeper convection to her SE offshore if that indeed is the LLC.

[HURAKAN]

After all, it's a beautiful storm.

[wxman57]

A tight cluster of surface obs near the center identifies the center near 28.5N/80.7W. Pressure at the Cape 998mb with a light NE-ENE wind.

[Sean in New Orleans]

After all, it's a beautiful storm.

That's impressive. If this baby was over a good chunk of water real estate, it would really blossom. The outflow is nice, as well. Hope everyone in Florida has done well and I'm sure you've had your share of rain. These types of slow systems can really drop the water and they sure have gotten it in Florida.

[AJC3]

That's an understatement... I have been through Jeanne and Frances in 2004... There is MUCH more flooding than in those storms from what I can see. Only minor wind damage this time though, still, For the first time ever I don't think people know how bad it really is the Eau Gallie, 192, Palm Bay Rd areas (Central & South Brevard County) We are getting clobbered.

Really bad over here in West Melbourne, too. The whole area toward I-95 is hurtin'. There's massive flooding on the south side of 192 near NY, Milwaukee, all those other state name roads are (One of the mets at our office lives over there). I live just off of John Rodes Blvd and it's bad over here too...though not in my sub. The north end of John Rodes Blvd is rapidly turning into a lake (the elevation drops off as you head W-NW toward Lake Washington). Lamplighter Village, the subdivision whose back end went under about 4 feet of water during Erin in '95, is flooding already. So is that whole area around he Dow Road industrial complex. THat's the way I go into work...and luckily for me my truck has really good ground clearance or I wouldn't have been able to make it home last night.

My pool pump takes out at least 1"/hour if not a tad more. The pool started out about 5-6" from the top on Monday night, was up a little when I left for work early Tuesday morning, and was brimming when I got home around 11:30 PM. The pump has been running since I turned it one shortly thereafter, and my pool is down only 6". I figure we got about 6" (give or take) before I got home last night, and about another 6" since last night.

Frogs are loving life around these parts right now.

[Dean4Storms]

I think the north movement is over and from a stall or slight drift to the east I don't see her making a N to NNW to NW to WNW movement once she moves westward after the ridge begins to push her west. She could make a bee line westward for the Gulf IMO.