ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[KWT]

Yeah you can see the clouds streaming into where the center is estimated to be on the best track, if the best track is right then we should expect this to go back upto code orange.

[Blown Away]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

Circulation is evident in the loop.

I agree 100% and with low shear and climatology maybe this will eventually become Gustav. I have a feeling this will be the next player and will be a cane.

[ConvergenceZone]

the thing is Jeff Masters is mentioning the horrible shear and dry air ahead of it and the chances of it developing are diminishing....Does that mean the he's seeing something that we aren't???

[cycloneye]

From the 94L model runs thread:

If SHIP is right,shear will not be a big problem down the road for 94L.

Code: Select all

SHEAR (KTS)        5     8     3     3     7     2     3     6    12     7    13    10    10

[KWT]

The problem is the models don't handle upper lows all that well, we saw that with Fay just recently so whose to say that there will or won't be shear about. I've got a good feeling this will do something down the line...

[cycloneye]

The latest pic: 94L looks like a little puppy in front of that bigger ITCZ disturbed area.

[KWT]

Yep convection isn't all that deep but its still deep enough to help sustain the system...

Also the thing is sometimes the smaller puppy ends up being the bigger dog!

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 202017
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
417 PM AST WED AUG 20 2008

THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED AT AROUND
40W...WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE NAM MODEL
BRING THE AXIS OF THE WAVE AND MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BETWEEN
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

[Canelaw99]

Yippee ^^^^ Just in time for me to be in Puerto Rico....so long as it stays just a wave and doesn't dump lots of rain, we'll be good LOL

[KWT]

I suspect this may end up going south of PR if it stays as a wave, given the way the system is moving at the moment and also given the strong high to the north.

[wxman57]

the thing is Jeff Masters is mentioning the horrible shear and dry air ahead of it and the chances of it developing are diminishing....Does that mean the he's seeing something that we aren't???

I suggest looking at a long-term WV loop and you'll see where the massive amount of shear is located. The only thing keeping 94L's convection going is being in the SE quadrant of the upper low. But that kind of flow isn't conducive to development. No chance of development until the upper low gets out of the way in 2-3 days. But by then, the wave may not have much convection, like the one now over the eastern Caribbean.

[Clipper96]

The GFDL does funny things with storms that aren't its focus.

See what it does with Fay in this 94 run:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Watch out, Cancun!

[KWT]

Will be very interesting to watch wxman57, but if it keeps up the convection then its going to have a better shot eventually. I do agree though I doubt anything comes before 60W...the set-up may end up being better for the system to the SE of it maybe?

[tolakram]

Central Atlantic water vapor loop

[KWT]

Looks like the ULL has been moving close to due west with 94L, seems like the conditions become much worse if you go north of 14-15N.

[Gustywind]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

Latest from NRL site: 12,5N 43,5W pressure 1007hpa
25 kts 2115 UTC

[Clipper96]

The system behind 94 looks considerably more impressive.

[fasterdisaster]

I'm expecting this to become a major hurricane down the line.

[fasterdisaster]

The system behind 94 looks considerably more impressive.

That's not a system, it's the ITCZ.

[cycloneye]

I'm expecting this to become a major hurricane down the line.

And your reasoning for that is?