ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[KWT]

Well the weakness looks like its gone too far east now, I've got to think that a westward motion to some degree is gonig to start, though note the high isn't right on top of the cylcone, there is enough give for a WNW motion there like the other models are expecting.

[rockyman]

Here's my fear...according to the NHC track, IF this system were to move into the Gulf, it would do so around 2am Friday morning. If it began to immediately strengthen, by 11am Friday, we could be looking at hurricane warnings for my area, with landfall predicted as early as Saturday afternoon. Not a whole lot of time to get ready. The silver lining, though, is that if the system is moving that quickly, it would likely not have time to become a significant hurricane.

[Sabanic]

Anyone who says she won't or can't has not been watching too many storms. I realize the way everything in the atmosphere sets up is what controls all steering currents, but I also know that these storms seem to do what was least expected as often as not.

[paintplaye]

We can probably all but forget her getting back in the gulf. The ridge does not look like there will be much due west steering for any long period of time. Also the UL over TX is not pulling up and moving out as fast as forecast allowing the high to expand more westward.

Look at the map above that was posted and you can tell that that ridge is pretty strong. This thing has a VERY good chance of it just going due west. Also a lot of times the models do underestimate how strong a particular ridge is. I would not be surprised to even see a little WSW movement here and there. This thing has a decent chance of going into the gulf.

[carversteve]

I think anyone who says she wont do this or she can't do that..Has apparently not watched her do pretty much what she wants to do for the past 5 days!!

[paintplaye]

Here's my fear...according to the NHC track, IF this system were to move into the Gulf, it would do so around 2am Friday morning. If it began to immediately strengthen, by 11am Friday, we could be looking at hurricane warnings for my area, with landfall predicted as early as Saturday afternoon. Not a whole lot of time to get ready. The silver lining, though, is that if the system is moving that quickly, it would likely not have time to become a significant hurricane.

Yes but you may get spared because it could go by y'all or hit before it gets to y'all.

[Javlin]

Here is the steering map right now...That ridge is not forecasted to budge for a while...This could VERY well push this due west into the gom.

I just noticed something Delta the proimity of or low(TX) to the High and how it is almost going NNE or will be soon.Does this kinda give an outline how far to the W of the High before something would feel the effects to travel North?

[LaunchGal]

Strong band coming through. Again.

Brevard county residents, let's all aim fans at Fay and blow her away ourselves.

[jinftl]

100% correct...but I can't see how it can not at least be viewed as encouraging that she has been gaining latitude. Anything is possible, but with every move north, she is making it harder for herself to find it back to the water...and the less water she would find if she did.

She could very well do something crazy like move SW, and if i lived anywhere on the Gulf Coast I would be watching like a hawk, but if she gets north of Penacola, Mobile, Biloxi, and New Orleans in latitude while still to the east of those cities, that is much better than a scenario where enters the Gulf off of Tampa.

If

Anyone who says she won't or can't has not been watching too many storms. I realize the way everything in the atmosphere sets up is what controls all steering currents, but I also know that these storms seem to do what was least expected as often as not.

[Dean4Storms]

THere still remains a possibility that Fay gets into the GOM, the EURO is not exactly a piece of trash model like a BAMM or something. It could very well be that the EURO gets it right and the others get it worng, it wouldn't be the First Time or does it go "Feels Like The First Time, Feels Like The Very First Time"?

It only takes a jog to the WSW for a short time to make all the difference in the world with this situation.

[tolakram]

Anyone who says she won't or can't has not been watching too many storms. I realize the way everything in the atmosphere sets up is what controls all steering currents, but I also know that these storms seem to do what was least expected as often as not.

I usually disagree but I think in this case it's perfectly legitimate to say I don't trust the models with this setup AT ALL.

3 day forecasts:







Everything was great until it hit Florida.

[KWT]

Note that if the low lifts rapidly north then we may see the high pressure build in further west as well, seen it so many times up here in the UK during winter its not even funny.

Also I still think this won't go due west, the high is centered just a touch too far north hence the slow motion as well expected.

[ocala]

Just watched a 14 hour radar loop starting when it was over the southern Cape to it's current point. It's amazing the transformation from a ragged TS to now.
It still looks like it's either stationary or drifting to the north.
Looks like late tonight and tomorrow we'll get our turn in Ocala.

[deltadog03]

The monkey wrench, if you wanna call it that, will be how that ULL effects FAY...Even if it does so, it won't be immediately.

[rockyman]

Looking at GRLevel3, Fay seems to me like she's beginning to drift west very slowly...anyone looking at the loop...notice how an hour ago, the coastline was only very slighly inside the "eye"...now about 15% of the "eye" seems to be over land

[tolakram]

Composite view is once again showing that curious circular feature.

[coreyl]

When will Fay start moving?

[Ground_Zero_92]

Looking at GRLevel3, Fay seems to me like she's beginning to drift west very slowly...anyone looking at the loop...notice how an hour ago, the coastline was only very slighly inside the "eye"...now about 15% of the "eye" seems to be over land

Yep, saw the same thing on my GRlevel3. Kinda hard to tell if it's a west movement or the storms around the jagged center forming and dissipating.

[Javlin]

The monkey wrench, if you wanna call it that, will be how that ULL effects FAY...Even if it does so, it won't be immediately.

Yea I seen that to the East out there while fairly good size just does not seem that intense,could the CCW flow of it move it WSW?might be the $64 question possibilily.Looking at the WV again it's a still aways out and maybe a WSW motion on it maybe.Remember the other one in front of Fay cross through Cuba at about 22'-24'.My brain can not see days out looking at loops much less 12hrs sometimes .

[KWT]

tolakram, wonder if thats a sign of the tighter center starting to emerge again, certainly does look like its rotating and its clsoe to where recon puts the center as well.