Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[webke]

I probably posted this under the wrong topic, so I'll try it here.

I have a question, when I look at the water vapor loop the ridge to the north is being pushed east at an angle by the low pressure west of Fay, can this make Fay take a more northernly track.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

[MetroMike]

Tampa Bay models are both south of the NHC track. VIPIR takes it off in Hernando County and TITAN takes it off much farther south in Manatee County.

Yes, Local weather guesser Denis Phillips, says that was the 1st run of TITAN that showed it that far south.....WE shall wait for a trend........The trend is your friend.

[Ivanhater]

The 18z Nogaps has shifted a bit south, was keeping it inland as it moved west, now just off the coast, just a few miles will make all the difference



Hit active run if prompted to view

[hcane27]

HWRF is moving south ....

[DESTRUCTION5]

New 06Z GFDL is interesting...It brings fay N 50 miles the goes due west nips the gulf and then WNW ti Alabama...Key is if it don take that 1st jog N the due west part would put it in the Gulf...

[Ivanhater]

18 HWRF keeps it in the gulf

18Z HWRF Fay

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -80.50 LAT: 28.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -80.60 LAT: 29.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -80.80 LAT: 29.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -81.10 LAT: 29.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -81.50 LAT: 28.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -82.00 LAT: 28.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 28.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -82.60 LAT: 28.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 28.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -83.00 LAT: 28.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 26.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -83.60 LAT: 28.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 26.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -84.00 LAT: 28.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 27.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -84.50 LAT: 27.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -84.80 LAT: 28.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -85.10 LAT: 28.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 26.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -85.60 LAT: 28.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 26.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -86.30 LAT: 28.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 26.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -86.70 LAT: 28.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -87.00 LAT: 28.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -87.90 LAT: 29.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -88.70 LAT: 29.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 23.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -89.10 LAT: 30.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 20.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -89.30 LAT: 29.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 22.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -89.90 LAT: 29.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1011.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 20.00

[AL Chili Pepper]

New 06Z GFDL is interesting...It brings fay N 50 miles the goes due west nips the gulf and then WNW ti Alabama...Key is if it don take that 1st jog N the due west part would put it in the Gulf...

I was about to post that I bet the GFDL shifts south too being that the HWRF did. It seems that they both have had similar solutions in past runs. I read that the HWRF is supposed to replace the GFDL next year, so I'm guessing that it uses some of the same code. Just a random thought there.

[ronjon]

18Z HWRF and GFS have Fay pretty much near Cedar Key by 2 PM tomorrow. Yes, I saw our local weatherman Dennis Phillips show his "titan" model running Fay SW though Tampa Bay and into the GOM. Titan and Vipir - anyone know what code or platform these models are run off?

[Stormcenter]

18 HWRF keeps it in the gulf

18Z HWRF Fay

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -80.50 LAT: 28.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -80.60 LAT: 29.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -80.80 LAT: 29.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -81.10 LAT: 29.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -81.50 LAT: 28.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -82.00 LAT: 28.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 28.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -82.60 LAT: 28.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 28.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -83.00 LAT: 28.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 26.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -83.60 LAT: 28.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 26.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -84.00 LAT: 28.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 27.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -84.50 LAT: 27.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -84.80 LAT: 28.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -85.10 LAT: 28.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 26.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -85.60 LAT: 28.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 26.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -86.30 LAT: 28.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 26.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -86.70 LAT: 28.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -87.00 LAT: 28.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -87.90 LAT: 29.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -88.70 LAT: 29.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 23.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -89.10 LAT: 30.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 20.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -89.30 LAT: 29.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 22.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -89.90 LAT: 29.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1011.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 20.00

Off topic question but I have to ask. Is that you in the picture under your name?

[lonelymike]

New POS model run has the track now running over P'Cola and then hitting NO as a Cat 2

[Ivanhater]

Off topic question but I have to ask. Is that you in the picture under your name?

Lol, yeah

[HurricaneBelle]

18Z HWRF and GFS have Fay pretty much near Cedar Key by 2 PM tomorrow. Yes, I saw our local weatherman Dennis Phillips show his "titan" model running Fay SW though Tampa Bay and into the GOM. Titan and Vipir - anyone know what code or platform these models are run off?

Sounds like they ran those models in "Wishcast Mode".

[TSmith274]

New POS model run has the track now running over P'Cola and then hitting NO as a Cat 2

Hopefully POS means what I think it means.

[KWT]

Also note however the HWRF keeps it at a TD...also starts a touch too far SW but the general idea is for a sharper west, looks close tothe ECM...

Thinkthe NHC may have to adjust for a trackk slightly into the gulf if the 0z run agrees.

[DESTRUCTION5]

What did the 18z GFS do tonight? did not see it posted?

[Shawee]

New POS model run has the track now running over P'Cola and then hitting NO as a Cat 2

Hopefully POS means what I think it means.

and Brownie and his boys will be ready as usual!

[Ivanhater]

What did the 18z GFS do tonight? did not see it posted?

Runs the coast to Mississppi

[frederic79]

Just a bit of hurricane trivia... I checked NHC advisory archives from Katrina in 05 (referred to due to location and synoptics, not strength). predicted by each new graphic advisory to move wnw or nw even when it was actually moving wsw. The ridge apparently flexed its muscle and forced the wsw motion that ultimately affected both strength and landfall location. Remember Katrina was also a tropical storm entering the gulf. It didn't take that long to strengthen over very warm water moving slowly. The EMCWF model gives it 2-3 days in the gulf. Buoy data currently shows water temps up to 88 degrees in the area south of Dauphin Island, AL. My point is not to say Fay will do something like this; my point is it has happened before.

[Sabanic]

I was about 2 miles SSE of Dauphin Island Sunday fishing, and was getting temp readings of 84-87 DEG

[Shawee]

Just a bit of hurricane trivia... I checked NHC advisory archives from Katrina in 05 (referred to due to location and synoptics, not strength). predicted by each new graphic advisory to move wnw or nw even when it was actually moving wsw. The ridge apparently flexed its muscle and forced the wsw motion that ultimately affected both strength and landfall location. Remember Katrina was also a tropical storm entering the gulf. It didn't take that long to strengthen over very warm water moving slowly. The EMCWF model gives it 2-3 days in the gulf. Buoy data currently shows water temps up to 88 degrees in the area south of Dauphin Island, AL. My point is not to say Fay will do something like this; my point is it has happened before.

you make a great point... while we have lighter moments, i don't think anyone along the Gulf Coast is taking anything for granted with this system... the good thing IMHO is all of the frontal activity and all of the atmospheric commotion she has to deal with. Fay is kind of like a big pinball it seems.

I appreciate this board and all of the great posters for keeping us updated but realistic.

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