ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[tolakram]

tolakram, wonder if thats a sign of the tighter center starting to emerge again, certainly does look like its rotating and its clsoe to where recon puts the center as well.

it quickly faded last time, it might just be some kind of a vortex or whatever the proper weather term is.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm detecting a westward movement on RadarLab HD at WeatherTap as well.

[paintplaye]

Note that if the low lifts rapidly north then we may see the high pressure build in further west as well, seen it so many times up here in the UK during winter its not even funny.

Also I still think this won't go due west, the high is centered just a touch too far north hence the slow motion as well expected.

I have to agree I think if it does get in the gulf it is the low that will be the deciding factor. It does seem like the low weakens quite a bit over the next few days and lifts to the north but we shall see.

[Janie2006]

The monkey wrench, if you wanna call it that, will be how that ULL effects FAY...Even if it does so, it won't be immediately.

Won't it be lifting to the north and east, around that ridge, as Fay makes her way west to northwest? Still, I suppose that's one of the headaches in forecasting this mess. What if one feature is faster than the other?

Questions still abound!

[KG4HPN]

The last time I saw rain bands reaching for her center like this, she wrapped rain around her west side. Could she be trying to beuild a new... I hesitate to call it an eye. A tighter CoC?
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... g=0&fire=0

[PurdueWx80]

The monkey wrench, if you wanna call it that, will be how that ULL effects FAY...Even if it does so, it won't be immediately.

i agree. right now, it seems most likely to me that whatever weakness is left behind over the arklatex is what will eventually draw fay northwards. until then, anything between WSW and WNW seems reasonable given the building ridge. i guess there's always a chance fay gets stuck again if the ridge remains strong enough and the trough passing through the great lakes this weekend misses it (as an occasional global model shows).

i'm a huge fan of the ECMWF, as it has been far superior synoptically over the last year. obviously, if its last few runs verify, there are huge implications for the central gulf coast next week.

[sweetpea]

this is what I have been told - treat them like everything is normal. Don't tell them everything will be alright - that will only re-enforce their fear they are already having. You can also give them a benedryl if you have any. Our 51 lb. dog can take 2 every 4 hours as needed per the vet. This helps them to calm down and sleep through the worst of it if need be. Hope this helps.

Thanks Artist. We don't baby him, even though it is hard not to. Actually did some research and ran across a couple of sites that say to rub him with a dryer sheet. I did that last night and again this morning and it seems to be working. It has something to do with the electricity and pressure changes that dogs feel. I was skeptical but it is working so far, which I am glad, I am not crazy about giving him any drugs without talking to the vet.

[tolakram]

Composite view is once again showing that curious circular feature.

Something funky is going on, that's for sure. The eastern convection is breaking apart. Dry air entrainment?

[JonathanBelles]

My cat actually wanted out tonight before it rained. I took him out and he was fine with it.

[Sabanic]

The monkey wrench, if you wanna call it that, will be how that ULL effects FAY...Even if it does so, it won't be immediately.

i agree. right now, it seems most likely to me that whatever weakness is left behind over the arklatex is what will eventually draw fay northwards. until then, anything between WSW and WNW seems reasonable given the building ridge. i guess there's always a chance fay gets stuck again if the ridge remains strong enough and the trough passing through the great lakes this weekend misses it (as an occasional global model shows).

i'm a huge fan of the ECMWF, as it has been far superior synoptically over the last year. obviously, if its last few runs verify, there are huge implications for the central gulf coast next week.

That's what worries me a tad

[Noles2006]

Is that tiny circulation possibly a mesoscale vortex? I didn't think they occurred in tropical storms...

[tolakram]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 170215.GIF

The visual loop appears to show increasing convection, but you wouldn't know it by looking at the radar.

[paintplaye]

The monkey wrench, if you wanna call it that, will be how that ULL effects FAY...Even if it does so, it won't be immediately.

i agree. right now, it seems most likely to me that whatever weakness is left behind over the arklatex is what will eventually draw fay northwards. until then, anything between WSW and WNW seems reasonable given the building ridge. i guess there's always a chance fay gets stuck again if the ridge remains strong enough and the trough passing through the great lakes this weekend misses it (as an occasional global model shows).

i'm a huge fan of the ECMWF, as it has been far superior synoptically over the last year. obviously, if its last few runs verify, there are huge implications for the central gulf coast next week.

Ut oh haha. Yea I live in Houston and i know we are not expected to get hit or anything but you always have to worry for that next Katrina type situation. Are the models predicting the ridge to be to weak? Do they predict it to strong? A lot of questions.

[DeanDaDream]

Is that tiny circulation possibly a mesoscale vortex? I didn't think they occurred in tropical storms...

...FAY BACK OVER WATER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Just got our first 5 minute sprinkle here on T.I. Just enough to barely dampen the ground. Conversely, the good breeze that we have had for the last two days has virtually stopped.

[Over my head]

Somebody asked the question a couple days ago on another thread but I didn't pay attention. I think it depended on whether it was divided into thirds or something. Now I am kicking myself in the butt.
Am I in considered the "Central Gulf" in Southeast Texas ?

[DeanDaDream]

Is that tiny circulation possibly a mesoscale vortex? I didn't think they occurred in tropical storms...

...FAY BACK OVER WATER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER...

MOVEMENT...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH

[deltadog03]

The monkey wrench, if you wanna call it that, will be how that ULL effects FAY...Even if it does so, it won't be immediately.

i agree. right now, it seems most likely to me that whatever weakness is left behind over the arklatex is what will eventually draw fay northwards. until then, anything between WSW and WNW seems reasonable given the building ridge. i guess there's always a chance fay gets stuck again if the ridge remains strong enough and the trough passing through the great lakes this weekend misses it (as an occasional global model shows).

i'm a huge fan of the ECMWF, as it has been far superior synoptically over the last year. obviously, if its last few runs verify, there are huge implications for the central gulf coast next week.

I totally agree with the EURO comment...Usually a much much better model than the GFS (synoptically) With that said, my error's with fay have been like most peoples. The euro was an outlier for much of this track, until now...Lone and behold the EURO might end up nailing this from a couple of days ago.

[Noles2006]

I'm detecting a westward movement on RadarLab HD at WeatherTap as well.

Dean - I know you all are ready, just in case... I must say... I'm hoping for it to retain TS status the whole way across the State... I don't think the potential is there for anything more serious than what we're already going to get with the ridiculous amount of rainfall (tropical systems never seem to strengthen in the NE GOM... and, in fact, usually lose most of their steam... then again, the only time they are typically in the NE GOM is when they are being pulled NE by fronts and at the same time being sheared badly)... I'm hoping for a TS because I want FRIDAY OFF OF WORK, lol, so I can be home with my wife and 1 year old daughter!

[Mattie]

With all the hurricane like characteristics of this tropical storm - I'll be it "goes into review" after all is said and done.