ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Dean4Storms]

I'm detecting a westward movement on RadarLab HD at WeatherTap as well.

Dean - I know you all are ready, just in case... I must say... I'm hoping for it to retain TS status the whole way across the State... I don't think the potential is there for anything more serious than what we're already going to get with the ridiculous amount of rainfall (tropical systems never seem to strengthen in the NE GOM... and, in fact, usually lose most of their steam... then again, the only time they are typically in the NE GOM is when they are being pulled NE by fronts and at the same time being sheared badly)... I'm hoping for a TS because I want FRIDAY OFF OF WORK, lol, so I can be home with my wife and 1 year old daughter!

Gotcha there, nothing like Time with the family. I'm ready for whatever and can certainly handle a TS, but a hurricane causes me concern cause I'm only a mile from the coast as a bird flies and only 300 yds from Choctawatchee Bay. Here's hoping for a TS passing to the north or TD more than likely.

[HURAKAN]

[wxman57]

For those of you who are fans of the ECMWF, it's done pretty badly with Fay. For example, last evening's run had Fay near 27.2N/82.3W at 00Z tonight (now). That's south of Sarasota, FL and about 135nm SW of Fay's actual position. This morning's ECMWF initialized Fay near 27.3N/82.3W, or about the same area south of Sarasota, which is 110+ miles WSW of where Fay actually was at 12Z this morning. It kept Fay in the same place until 12Z tomorrow (near Sarasota on the west coast) and only moved it north to Tampa Bay on Friday morning. Clearly, the one model bringing Fay out into the Gulf is pure garbage.

Oh, and how'd last night's GFS run do compared to the EC? It had Fay near 28.9N/81.1W, just a little west of where it is now. I think I'd put my money on any model BUT the ECMWF for Fay.

To get into the Gulf and have any significant time over water, Fay would have to track toward 275 degrees or less from its current location. A track of 279 degrees takes it over water briefly between the peninsula and the panhandle. A track toward 285 degrees keeps the center inland. So the chances of Fay entering the Gulf for anything but a brief period are quite low. Most likely, it'll move inland tomorrow morning and weaken to a depression by tomorrow night/Friday morning.

[tolakram]

AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LATITUDE
29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST ABOUT 45 MILES...75 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

[LaunchGal]

Kayaking down the street in Brevard County this evening:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4738usG1Ig

People are advised to stay out of the flood waters due to fecal contamination, chemicals, snakes, fish and alligators.

[KWT]

That microwave imagery shows that Florida has left this with a huge center region with convection well flung out from the region of lowest pressure...

It reminds me an awful lot of Bertha when it had stalled actually.

[Dean4Storms]

993mb and 60mph winds, uh oh!

[Dean4Storms]

For those of you who are fans of the ECMWF, it's done pretty badly with Fay. For example, last evening's run had Fay near 27.2N/82.3W at 00Z tonight (now). That's south of Sarasota, FL and about 135nm SW of Fay's actual position. This morning's ECMWF initialized Fay near 27.3N/82.3W, or about the same area south of Sarasota, which is 110+ miles WSW of where Fay actually was at 12Z this morning. It kept Fay in the same place until 12Z tomorrow (near Sarasota on the west coast) and only moved it north to Tampa Bay on Friday morning. Clearly, the one model bringing Fay out into the Gulf is pure garbage.

Oh, and how'd last night's GFS run do compared to the EC? It had Fay near 28.9N/81.1W, just a little west of where it is now. I think I'd put my money on any model BUT the ECMWF for Fay.

To get into the Gulf and have any significant time over water, Fay would have to track toward 275 degrees or less from its current location. A track of 279 degrees takes it over water briefly between the peninsula and the panhandle. A track toward 285 degrees keeps the center inland. So the chances of Fay entering the Gulf for anything but a brief period are quite low. Most likely, it'll move inland tomorrow morning and weaken to a depression by tomorrow night/Friday morning.

True enough.

[tolakram]

Looking at the radar image and the latest position you can see that the center of circulation is, if the fix is accurate, to the upper right of the big swirl of convection. I wonder if this is why it appears to be re-organizing on radar.




pressure at Daytona continues to fall.

[Mississippi Storm Magnet]

I totally agree with the EURO comment...Usually a much much better model than the GFS (synoptically) With that said, my error's with fay have been like most peoples. The euro was an outlier for much of this track, until now...Lone and behold the EURO might end up nailing this from a couple of days ago.

This question may need to be in the models thread but:

Why does the EURO seem to consistently outperform the other models like GFS/GFDL etc? Newer? Use better data input?

[KWT]

[quote="wxman57"] Clearly, the one model bringing Fay out into the Gulf is pure garbage.

[quote]

Thats the point its not the only model, the GFS DOES bring it into the gulf, granted its also very close to the coast...

However I agree with you I still don't think this is going to get int othe gulf, indeed the fact the motion seems to be drifting just a little to the NE still IMO with possibly a tighter ciruclation setting up further east?

[PurdueWx80]

For those of you who are fans of the ECMWF, it's done pretty badly with Fay. For example, last evening's run had Fay near 27.2N/82.3W at 00Z tonight (now). That's south of Sarasota, FL and about 135nm SW of Fay's actual position. This morning's ECMWF initialized Fay near 27.3N/82.3W, or about the same area south of Sarasota, which is 110+ miles WSW of where Fay actually was at 12Z this morning. It kept Fay in the same place until 12Z tomorrow (near Sarasota on the west coast) and only moved it north to Tampa Bay on Friday morning. Clearly, the one model bringing Fay out into the Gulf is pure garbage.

Oh, and how'd last night's GFS run do compared to the EC? It had Fay near 28.9N/81.1W, just a little west of where it is now. I think I'd put my money on any model BUT the ECMWF for Fay.

To get into the Gulf and have any significant time over water, Fay would have to track toward 275 degrees or less from its current location. A track of 279 degrees takes it over water briefly between the peninsula and the panhandle. A track toward 285 degrees keeps the center inland. So the chances of Fay entering the Gulf for anything but a brief period are quite low. Most likely, it'll move inland tomorrow morning and weaken to a depression by tomorrow night/Friday morning.

i don't have the ability to look at any high-res stuff now, but the 12z run i'm looking at on the web had fay nowhere near sarasota this morning (nor did yesterday's 00z run that i'm looking at). it had it near or just a bit south of melbourne at 12z.

[Dean4Storms]

It is getting better organized the last few hours, lets hope it gets ashore soon.

[jlauderdal]

Kayaking down the street in Brevard County this evening:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4738usG1Ig

People are advised to stay out of the flood waters due to fecal contamination, chemicals, snakes, fish and alligators.

downed power lines can be a little problem too,

[Ivanhater]

Wxman, I wouldnt say quite low with the the GFS, Euro, Nogaps, hwrf showing gulf and now GFDL coming a lot more south "quite low"...of course it may not get in the gulf, but I would say the chance is on par with staying over the panhandle

[wxman57]

I totally agree with the EURO comment...Usually a much much better model than the GFS (synoptically) With that said, my error's with fay have been like most peoples. The euro was an outlier for much of this track, until now...Lone and behold the EURO might end up nailing this from a couple of days ago.

This question may need to be in the models thread but:

Why does the EURO seem to consistently outperform the other models like GFS/GFDL etc? Newer? Use better data input?

Who says the Euro outperforms the other models? You have model verification proof?

[carversteve]

Is it totally out of the question of a south or north carolina land fall??..Don't shoot me..just asking..But she has followed the models pretty well so far..

[KWT]

Well at the mid latitude its definatly does wxman57, followed by the 12z GFS as you'd probably expect.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I totally agree with the EURO comment...Usually a much much better model than the GFS (synoptically) With that said, my error's with fay have been like most peoples. The euro was an outlier for much of this track, until now...Lone and behold the EURO might end up nailing this from a couple of days ago.

This question may need to be in the models thread but:

Why does the EURO seem to consistently outperform the other models like GFS/GFDL etc? Newer? Use better data input?

Who says the Euro outperforms the other models? You have model verification proof?

Ask XY-no how bad the EURO did when he gets done eating his shorts...

[HURAKAN]