ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

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Dean4Storms
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#11521 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:28 pm

Check this long radar loop at wunderground and tell me if at the end you see a slight WSW movement of the storm?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11522 Postby CronkPSU » Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:29 pm

sure looks like that "eye" is tightening up quite a bit and the banding all around it is much better, we are getting some pretty good rain and wind here in NW Orange county right now from it
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11523 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:29 pm

I told ya'll it's coming to Cincinnati and finally a model believes me.

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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11524 Postby jacindc » Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:29 pm

wxman57 wrote:For those of you who are fans of the ECMWF, it's done pretty badly with Fay.

(...) Most likely, it'll move inland tomorrow morning and weaken to a depression by tomorrow night/Friday morning.


You tell kids there's no Santa Claus and Easter Bunny, too, don't you? :D
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11525 Postby Emmett_Brown » Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:31 pm

Stationary, and getting stronger. As a resident of St Johns county near St Aug FL, I am watching this closely.

From what i can see, everyone around here sort of forgot Fay today, especially when the H Watch was lowered. I think people have forgotten she is there, and most offices are business as usual tomorrow... How much more strengthening before landfalling is the question, and critical to NEFL is the angle of approach.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11526 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:32 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:
i don't have the ability to look at any high-res stuff now, but the 12z run i'm looking at on the web had fay nowhere near sarasota this morning (nor did yesterday's 00z run that i'm looking at). it had it near or just a bit south of melbourne at 12z.


I was looking at the EC Model data on the Penn State ewall site and there is a big difference between the EC on their "US Home" and the data on their "Tropical Atlantic" home. Take a look.

US Home - Fay near Cape Canaveral this morning
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/f00.gif

Tropical Atlantic page - near Sarasota this morning:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... 2z/f00.gif

Interesting, one is high res and the other isn't. We can't afford high-res EC data at work as it's tens of thousands of dollars.

The 12Z high-res Euro takes Fay north to just east of Jacksonville then westward across the Panhandle and then SW into the Gulf for a while where it intensifies Fay. But that track looks strange, given that there doesn't appear to be a ridge building north of Fay to shove it out into the Gulf. Looks like it should be turning NW not SW.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11527 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:33 pm

CronkPSU wrote:sure looks like that "eye" is tightening up quite a bit and the banding all around it is much better, we are getting some pretty good rain and wind here in NW Orange county right now from it

Yes, even on AVN images you can tell the center is becoming more organized. The convection on the east side is very impressive.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11528 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:35 pm

wxman57 wrote:
PurdueWx80 wrote:
i don't have the ability to look at any high-res stuff now, but the 12z run i'm looking at on the web had fay nowhere near sarasota this morning (nor did yesterday's 00z run that i'm looking at). it had it near or just a bit south of melbourne at 12z.


I was looking at the EC Model data on the Penn State ewall site and there is a big difference between the EC on their "US Home" and the data on their "Tropical Atlantic" home. Take a look.

US Home - Fay near Cape Canaveral this morning
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/f00.gif

Tropical Atlantic page - near Sarasota this morning:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... 2z/f00.gif

Interesting, one is high res and the other isn't. We can't afford high-res EC data at work as it's tens of thousands of dollars.

The 12Z high-res Euro takes Fay north to just east of Jacksonville then westward across the Panhandle and then SW into the Gulf for a while where it intensifies Fay. But that track looks strange, given that there doesn't appear to be a ridge building north of Fay to shove it out into the Gulf. Looks like it should be turning NW not SW.



Is it not possibly picking up the next ridge shown even on the GFS dropping down from Canada over the weekend and that is what the Euro picks up maybe stronger than the others?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11529 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:35 pm

Pearl River wrote:
There's no Santa or Easter Bunny? :cry:


NO! And there is no tooth fairy, either!

The Euro indicates a front dropping down to Missouri in 48 hours and high pressure moving off the east U.S. Coast. That's a setup for recurvature, not southwest movement.
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#11530 Postby catastrophic » Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:37 pm

myyard got flooded here and saposedly dow the roada few milesat a gasstation with a car under water with onley its hood ticking out
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11531 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:39 pm

The 00:00 UTC Best Track.50kts

AL, 06, 2008082100, , BEST, 0, 290N, 805W, 50, 993, TS, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 0,
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Re:

#11532 Postby LowndesCoFire » Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:39 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Check this long radar loop at wunderground and tell me if at the end you see a slight WSW movement of the storm?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad


IMO its the eye structure closing in.
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#11533 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:39 pm

As, Wxman said....(rains on many peoples parade) lol The euro usally does better with synoptic features, but usually lacks in the tropical cylone's positions. I still think it has a shot at gom, not the greatest..
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Re: Re:

#11534 Postby Mississippi Storm Magnet » Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:39 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Who says the Euro outperforms the other models? You have model verification proof?


Personally? No. But when a different PRO Met says

"i'm a huge fan of the ECMWF, as it has been far superior synoptically over the last year." then you tend to believe them.

I knew I should have continued my self imposed ban from Storm 2k after Katrina. Everyone knows everything about weather.

I was just asking a question.

Later all.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11535 Postby baitism » Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:40 pm

Heavy rain is rotating back into Melbourne too.... :(
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11536 Postby THead » Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:42 pm

I came down here last week for a visit, to see the Cubs play the Marlins over last weekend, and to check on my condo which is STILL being worked on and un-inhabitable from Wilma. I am staying with my elderly in-laws, and was planning on leaving Monday. Playing it safe, I decided to stay and help with their storm preperations, just in case it got out of control. Luckily Broward came out of Fay in great shape, I am as usual in awe of what it has done in Palm Beach county and points north, Brevard looks like a real mess with the flooding. I hope everyone is ok.

I am trying to time my escape back to Georgia, with minimal interaction with Fay, it looks like I will be driving back on Saturday.

I just want to say thank you, for the millionth time over the last several years, for all the great posts, maps, graphics, comic relief, and everything else that we have come to love about storm2k. I can't tell you all again how great it is to have this place to come to, to see familiar people, and hear everyone's opinions. Thanks to everyone on the board, and all the admins that keep it running so smooth. I will be making my yearly contribution when I finally make it back to Georgia.

Everyone stay safe!!
Thanks,
Jim
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11537 Postby UpTheCreek » Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:45 pm

carversteve wrote:Is it totally out of the question of a south or north carolina land fall??..Don't shoot me..just asking..But she has followed the models pretty well so far.. :lol:


Nothing is ever out of the question, especially with this storm! But I'd say highly unlikely! I wouldn't mind "some" rain though, but nothing like the FL folks have received THUS FAR. Hope it doesn't last too much longer for the folks down there!
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Re: Re:

#11538 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:46 pm

Mississippi Storm Magnet wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Who says the Euro outperforms the other models? You have model verification proof?


Personally? No. But when a different PRO Met says

"i'm a huge fan of the ECMWF, as it has been far superior synoptically over the last year." then you tend to believe them.

I knew I should have continued my self imposed ban from Storm 2k after Katrina. Everyone knows everything about weather.

I was just asking a question.

Later all.


Sorry, didn't mean to snap at you. I was just wondering if you'd seen any verification in the NHC post-season tally that showed the ECMWF outperforming the consensus models or other global models. I have observed the EC doing ok on some storms but not others, though I don't have any precise numbers for a comparison (average error at 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 hrs). So I'd like to see some verification if it exists.

Ask Derek his opinion of the ECMWF. ;-)
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#11539 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:46 pm

Yep indeed deltadog03, the ECM is probably the best synoptic model but it doesn't quite have the resolution to do tropical cyclones justice unless they are pretty strong.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11540 Postby ronjon » Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:47 pm

The Euro was the first model on to the more NE track across FL with Fay - the GFDL was close behind by 6 hrs. But all in all, I think the model spread with Fay has been larger than normal. Perhaps a MET might want to chime in on why that was the case? I noticed the 18Z GFDL has Fay at 29.5N at its 8 PM location - clearly too far north by 0.5 degree. If that track is adjusted south by that margin, its close to Cedar Key at 2 PM tomorrow - similar to the 18Z GFS. The 18Z HWRF takes Fay much further south - offshore Clearwater with a much weaker system.
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