ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Sabanic]

That IS interesting.......not focusing on the line......nearly half the 11PM NHC cone is in the gulf, fwiw.

Focus on the cone . . . Not the line

[jaxfladude]

Freaky, Crazy, Lazy, Dizzy, Fay please just go west already...

[Ivanhater]

Going to have to take a break..Gold medal match womens beach volleyball!

[Sabanic]

Going to have to take a break..Gold medal match womens beach volleyball!

Same here. See yall in the AM.

Peace Out & God Bless

[Ivanhater]

Going to have to take a break..Gold medal match womens beach volleyball!

Same here. See yall in the AM.

Peace Out & God Bless

See you later sabanic

[jaxfladude]

Just be sure to actually look at the volleyball and not just the players....

[ROCK]

the ull in the plains is eroding the SW corner of the mid level high to fay's north

causing the periphery of the high to be oriented in a more WNW motion (you can see the change in the last 3 hours)

it seems what looked like a 50-50 shot yesterday just changed to about 20-80

i would also like to know what influene that pesky East coast trough may have by digging a bit more southward on the mid level high?

are you looking at the 500-850 heights? Western edge is fairly unchanged from what I can tell....very subtle if anything....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Got a question about the low near the arklatex region. As it moves ne out of the area is there any possibilities of the ridge building back west and south? Or will the ridge weaken and move off to the east?

[Frank P]

I think we just might have a drift going...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

look at the NW edge of the center advancing and now it look like the SE edge of the center might also be moving.. I might will this thing to move...

the rain shield has moved quite a bit away from the D in Daytona... and the back SE side just might be following it..

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Going to have to take a break..Gold medal match womens beach volleyball!

HAHAHAHA!!! You go Buddy!

Gotta love the bikinis.

[paintplaye]

OMG HOUSTON IS IN THE CONE! haha

[cpdaman]

rock, i sure am ..........focus on Central Alabama and look at the 3 hours trends you can see a bit of erosion

[MiamiensisWx]

Note that the H5 cutoff low over the Midwest is clearly deeper than originally progged by the operational GFS. This is resulting in a mid level weakness along the western flank of the downstream H5 ridging to the east.

18Z operational GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_000l.gif

Reality:

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_500.html

I've personally been leaning against a Gulf entry throughout the life of this TC, and I'm staunchly maintaining my original position.

[ROCK]

rock, i sure am ..........focus on Central Alabama and look at the 3 hours trends you can see a bit of erosion

got it.....I see what you mean...

[HURAKAN]

Convection continues to increase.

[bahamaswx]

There is a bit of logical inconsistency here between "don't focus on the line!" and "she won't make it into the gulf."

[Stormcenter]

That IS interesting.......not focusing on the line......nearly half the 11PM NHC cone is in the gulf, fwiw.

I noted as most others probably did that in the 11pm discussion that NHC strengthens Fay only up to TS if she
does if fact travel further south into the GOM. I'm assuming this means conditions probably won't be ideal for any
significant strengthening before she makes landfall again.

[ROCK]

Note that the H5 cutoff low over the Midwest is clearly deeper than originally progged by the operational GFS. This is resulting in a mid level weakness along the western flank of the downstream H5 ridging to the east.

18Z operational GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_000l.gif

Reality:

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_500.html

I've personally been leaning against a Gulf entry throughout the life of this TC, and I'm staunchly maintaining my original position, personally.

didnt she technically reach the GOM on her second landfall? The first being Key West.

[Stormcenter]

I think we just might have a drift going...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

look at the NW edge of the center advancing and now it look like the SE edge of the center might also be moving.. I might will this thing to move...

the rain shield has moved quite a bit away from the D in Daytona... and the back SE side just might be following it..

It "looks" like a slow WNW drift may have started. IMO

[MiamiensisWx]

Note that the H5 cutoff low over the Midwest is clearly deeper than originally progged by the operational GFS. This is resulting in a mid level weakness along the western flank of the downstream H5 ridging to the east.

18Z operational GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_000l.gif

Reality:

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_500.html

I've personally been leaning against a Gulf entry throughout the life of this TC, and I'm staunchly maintaining my original position, personally.

didnt she technically reach the GOM on her second landfall? The first being Key West.

I made an unintentional mistake - I was referring to the prospects of a second Gulf entry.