ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[ROCK]

Note that the H5 cutoff low over the Midwest is clearly deeper than originally progged by the operational GFS. This is resulting in a mid level weakness along the western flank of the downstream H5 ridging to the east.

18Z operational GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_000l.gif

Reality:

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_500.html

I've personally been leaning against a Gulf entry throughout the life of this TC, and I'm staunchly maintaining my original position, personally.

didnt she technically reach the GOM on her second landfall? The first being Key West.

I made an unintentional mistake - I was referring to the prospects of a second Gulf entry.

I know....just messin with ya...

[paintplaye]

I think we just might have a drift going...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

look at the NW edge of the center advancing and now it look like the SE edge of the center might also be moving.. I might will this thing to move...

the rain shield has moved quite a bit away from the D in Daytona... and the back SE side just might be following it..

It "looks" like a slow WNW drift may have started. IMO

I think she is still stationary. You may be seeing the convection around it moving and getting smaller and bigger.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Why are so many people saying she won't become a Hurricane? Just another 15mph increase in winds and she is a 75mph Hurricane. She has a fully closed eyewall now looking at radar and so she should be good to go if she stays out over water.

[PTPatrick]

Was it Frances or Jeanne that had the Huge eye? This eye reminds me of that one.

[rockyman]

Definitely appears to be moving WNW on GRLevel3

[Frank P]

I think we just might have a drift going...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

look at the NW edge of the center advancing and now it look like the SE edge of the center might also be moving.. I might will this thing to move...

the rain shield has moved quite a bit away from the D in Daytona... and the back SE side just might be following it..

It "looks" like a slow WNW drift may have started. IMO

I think she is still stationary. You may be seeing the convection around it moving and getting smaller and bigger.

maybe, maybe not.. here is another radar loop... eventually this thing has to move...

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... w&loop=yes

[cpdaman]

Why are so many people saying she won't become a Hurricane? Just another 15mph increase in winds and she is a 75mph Hurricane. She has a fully closed eyewall now looking at radar and so she should be good to go if she stays out over water.

cause the water at that warm mid /upper 70's near shore

[PTPatrick]

I agree, either a drift W or slightly WNW based on what I can see on radar. A lot of I 94 and even some of I 4 are now in the eye...compared to a while ago, none of them were


I know this sounds crazy, but Its actually pretty noticable if you watch the frames load(or at least on my mac it is), the all sort of overlap, and you can actually see where the old boundry of the W eye wall as moved a good 15 miles inland.

[Frank P]

radar loops continue to hint of a WNW motion... get this thing a moving

[timeflow]

This is like the greatest hits of tropical storms all under a single name. It's now taking on some kind of massive UFO looking eye... huge like Wilma or something. What have we done to deserve this?

[paintplaye]

radar loops continue to hint of a WNW motion... get this thing a moving

I think west really the WNW was the eye expanding northward.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Why are so many people saying she won't become a Hurricane? Just another 15mph increase in winds and she is a 75mph Hurricane. She has a fully closed eyewall now looking at radar and so she should be good to go if she stays out over water.

cause the water at that warm mid /upper 70's near shore

Well I think it has a shot. We will just have to wait and see. Pressure should start to fall again now that it has a closed eyewall (yes it is a true eyewall since recon reported it on the last center fix but it was open on the SW side but appears to be closed now.)

[Frank P]

ON FURTHER REVIEW...

maybe the center is just flattening out from north to south, causing the east and west to expand? I can't tell if the east side of the center is actually moving.. west certainly is...

geesh

[Stormcenter]

Why are so many people saying she won't become a Hurricane? Just another 15mph increase in winds and she is a 75mph Hurricane. She has a fully closed eyewall now looking at radar and so she should be good to go if she stays out over water.

But she is about to go back inland and remain there for at least 24 hours. Yeah I know she strengthened over land yesterday but I don't believe that will happen again.

[catastrophic]

i know this grid was made for 94L but i thought i saw fay offthe coast of floriada. Im not sure if im looking at this yight but it looks like this shows fay back in thr yucatan channel
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Stormcenter]

I still believe she is now moving wnw ever so slowly.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... w&loop=yes

[Ground_Zero_92]

ON FURTHER REVIEW...

maybe the center is just flattening out from north to south, causing the east and west to expand? I can't tell if the east side of the center is actually moving.. west certainly is...

geesh

I know exactly how you're feeling.

[HURAKAN]

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Why are so many people saying she won't become a Hurricane? Just another 15mph increase in winds and she is a 75mph Hurricane. She has a fully closed eyewall now looking at radar and so she should be good to go if she stays out over water.

But she is about to go back inland and remain there for at least 24 hours. Yeah I know she strengthened over land yesterday but I don't believe that will happen again.

I said if she can stay over water. Shes not moving in land yet so as long as shes over water she has a chance to become a Hurricane IMO

[Noles2006]

i know this grid was made for 94L but i thought i saw fay offthe coast of floriada. Im not sure if im looking at this yight but it looks like this shows fay back in thr yucatan channel
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

you said it yourself in your first sentence...