ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[paintplaye]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=MLB&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

About a third of her eye is already over land. That being said, convection is deepening all around and her eye is still very well defined. Maybe Fay needs a land AND water at the same time to strengthen.

Also, I think her track will have to be moved a little more south. A west movement is very evident on radar.

100% agree. I wonder if it will start moving south west a little later.

[jcool]

Frank P , I see the westward wobble too, She's been stationary for hours and I have heard that can indicates a change in direction is about to occur. I'm sure many people would like to see Fay move... too much rain on them already.

[artist]

what would the possibility be of her relocating her center over the gulf stream there?

[PTPatrick]

Just my take on things so far IN GENERAL with the GFS. Given its a low resolution model, if you shake out the track with an average...that is take out the WSW initial movement and the jump northward to Lake city and various near landfalls from Appalachicola to New Orleans...the track comes out hair above Due west to MS LA but Sunday and sitting there.


That is the best track of the 0z GFs would look to be from Volusia/Brevard line straight to Levy/Citrus line exiting and barely touching Apalachicola(ala Elena), and heading in somwhere around Between Biloxi and New Orleans sometime Monday night.


update: finally 144 hrs came in...it actually has it sit due south of Biloxi and meander from about 84 hrs to 144 hrs... FINALLY moving inland over MObile at 144 hrs...craziness

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=MLB&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

About a third of her eye is already over land. That being said, convection is deepening all around and her eye is still very well defined. Maybe Fay needs a land AND water at the same time to strengthen.

Also, I think her track will have to be moved a little more south. A west movement is very evident on radar.

100% agree. I wonder if it will start moving south west a little later.

Already looks like a little south of west to me.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

what would the possibility be of her relocating her center over the gulf stream there?

Not very likely IMO. She has a very well established core right now which would have to greatly weaken in order for her to relocate her center.

[Frank P]

Frank P , I see the westward wobble too, She's been stationary for hours and I have heard that can indicates a change in direction is about to occur. I'm sure many people would like to see Fay move... too much rain on them already.

jcool, the radar tells the story.. loops still looks like a west motion continues... just keep watching to see if it continues.. not like you need recon or anything else to tell you...

[ROCK]

Just my take on things so far IN GENERAL with the GFS. Given its a low resolution model, if you shake out the track with an average...that is take out the WSW initial movement and the jump northward to Lake city and various near landfalls from Appalachicola to New Orleans...the track comes out hair above Due west to MS LA but Sunday and sitting there.


That is the best track of the 0z GFs would look to be from Volusia/Brevard line straight to Levy/Citrus line exiting and barely touching Apalachicola(ala Elena), and heading in somwhere around Between Biloxi and New Orleans sometime Monday night.


update: finally 144 hrs came in...it actually has it sit due south of Biloxi and meander from about 84 hrs to 144 hrs... FINALLY moving inland over MObile at 144 hrs...craziness

18z GFS operational runs depicted something similar to this track. Havent seen the 0z yet...

[artist]

what would the possibility be of her relocating her center over the gulf stream there?

Not very likely IMO. She has a very well established core right now which would have to greatly weaken in order for her to relocate her center.

on water vapor she is looking rather strange. Though she has been a strange creature from the get go hasn't she?!? Thanks for your answer.

[paintplaye]

Just my take on things so far IN GENERAL with the GFS. Given its a low resolution model, if you shake out the track with an average...that is take out the WSW initial movement and the jump northward to Lake city and various near landfalls from Appalachicola to New Orleans...the track comes out hair above Due west to MS LA but Sunday and sitting there.


That is the best track of the 0z GFs would look to be from Volusia/Brevard line straight to Levy/Citrus line exiting and barely touching Apalachicola(ala Elena), and heading in somwhere around Between Biloxi and New Orleans sometime Monday night.


update: finally 144 hrs came in...it actually has it sit due south of Biloxi and meander from about 84 hrs to 144 hrs... FINALLY moving inland over MObile at 144 hrs...craziness

18z GFS operational runs depicted something similar to this track. Havent seen the 0z yet...

100 hrs of strengthening= very bad.

[Innotech]

I'm convinced right now that Fay is moving WEST... you can finally see the back end (east side) of the center now moving along with the west ....

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

it might only be a temporary wobble to the west or something more.. who knows

what you are seeing is an illusion. Looking further east, the rainbands have not moved west at all. Similarly, looking at the exact location of Ocala and the I94 marker, neither one shows the rainbands moving west of it. In Ocalas case the rainbands are exactly even with it and spinning in a broad circle.

[RL3AO]

Just throwing it out there, but could we be looking at the second tropical storm to get retired? That much rain over Florida is going to rack up the damage numbers.

[PTPatrick]

OMG...just noticed tonight HWRF...GOES SW to almost due west of Tampa...THEN WNW...that doesnt look good...we wont pay attention to that!

[paintplaye]

Just throwing it out there, but could we be looking at the second tropical storm to get retired? That much rain over Florida is going to rack up the damage numbers.

there is a good chance and if this thing strengthens to a hurricane in the gulf, I would say that it almost certainly would.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

OMG...just noticed tonight HWRF...GOES SW to almost due west of Tampa...THEN WNW...that doesnt look good...we wont pay attention to that!

lol then if we aren't going to pay attention to it then why did you bring it up?

[Frank P]

could be an illusion but earlier in the evening I posted that the leading edge of the west side of the center was at the A in DAYTONA... so the western edge of the center has move quite a bit since then.. its no where near that now... agree that the east side has not followed as it should... maybe it has a split personality center...

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[Frank P]

like watching grass grow... wet grass at that

[SunnyThoughts]

Looks as though I better take my Hurricane mad money fund (evacuation purposes) and buy a canoe to use as the people in melbourne are having to do, if those rain totals are correct that is.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'm afraid for my friends right now in Sanford, FL. They just told me that school will be open for them in Seminole County tomorrow. Unfortunately, her eye/eyewall will be over them mostly tomorrow. I just think it's dangerous to reopen school at a time like this. Like, what are winds over there? 40 - 50 mph? That's enough to tip buses on their sides.

[Frank P]

the SW quad is just dumping a ton of rain.. this is incredible... non stop raining.. this thing better start moving and soon