ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[fasterdisaster]

She's looking very healthy on radar! That eyewall's closing up. Recon should get back in there.

[hiflyer]

WTNT41 KNHC 210849
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT FAY IS NOT STRENGTHENING.
THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 850 MB FROM THE AIRCRAFT WAS 62
KT...CORRESPONDING TO SURFACE WINDS OF 50 KT...WITH PEAK ACTUAL
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF 50 KT FROM A DROPSONDE AND 51 KT FROM THE
SFMR. THE PRESSURE HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY AROUND 993-994 MB.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 50 KT.

AFTER DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD EARLIER TONIGHT...FAY IS NEARLY
STATIONARY AGAIN JUST A FEW MILES OFFSHORE. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF FAY...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CYCLONE'S CURRENT
STALL...IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD
WESTWARD AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTS OUT OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO TURN FAY SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. THERE HAS NOT BEEN A
GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THIS FORECAST
CYCLE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND NOW SHOWS A
TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND UKMET
GUIDANCE AND IS JUST A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE NET CHANGE IN THE RADAR PRESENTATION OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS ACTUALLY
DEGRADED SLIGHTLY WITH SOME EROSION NOTED IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. WHILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS STILL SUPPPORT SOME
INTENSIFICATION...THE BROAD STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE'S CORE WOULD
ARGUE AGAINST MUCH CHANGE IN STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ASSUMING
THAT THE TRACK FORECAST IS CORRECT IN KEEPING FAY INLAND AFTER
THAT...A GRADUAL WEAKENING WOULD BE EXPECTED. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...
HOWEVER...SHOULD FAY GO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 29.1N 80.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 29.4N 81.6W 50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 22/0600Z 29.6N 82.5W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 22/1800Z 30.0N 83.9W 30 KT...ALONG FL GULF COAST
48HR VT 23/0600Z 30.3N 85.1W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 24/0600Z 30.7N 87.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 25/0600Z 31.0N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/0600Z 31.0N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Emmett_Brown]

Much windier here in St Aug FL this morning. I would guess gusts to near TS. Wind jarred our door, and set off our burgler alarm at 5:05, so I am back to obsess over Fay.

[hiflyer]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
425 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

.DISCUSSION...

...FAY TO TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTY TODAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT WITH RAIN BANDS
AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER THROUGH FRIDAY...
...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY...

CURRENTLY...THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY IS JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST AT 3 AM. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN MELBOURNE AND THE TERMINAL DOPPLER IN
ORLANDO HAVE INDICATED A STRENGTHENING OF THE WIND FIELDS AROUND
2000 FT TO 60-65 KNOTS AROUND THE CAPE AND OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS THE CENTER OF FAY MOVING ONSHORE
ACROSS NORTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTY LATER THIS MORNING SO THERE SHOULD
BE LITTLE TIME FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.

TODAY...WITH FAY MOVING SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN RAIN BANDS THAT WRAP AROUND THE CENTER...LIKELY
CAUSING ADDITIONAL FLOODING. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN BANDS WILL ALSO CONTAIN WIND
GUSTS TO STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND NEAR
THE COAST THIS MORNING FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD AS FAY MOVES
ONSHORE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED MAINLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM KISSIMMEE TO MELBOURNE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS FAY MOVES FURTHER ONSHORE RAIN BANDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CENTER WILL AFFECT VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN BREVARD BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT ACROSS THE NORTH
TO 70 PCT FOR OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST WHERE RAIN BANDS MAY
INTENSIFY LATER TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING.

TONIGHT...THE CURRENT NHC TRACK HAS FAY MOVING WNW ACROSS MARION
COUNTY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...AND ESPECIALLY
LAKE COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP RAIN CHCS FOR
THE FAR NORTH AND WILL STILL KEEP LIKELY POPS SRN SECTIONS WITH SOME
RAIN BANDS REDEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.

FRI-SAT...
FCST WILL BE TIED TO THE FCST TRACK OF T.S. FAY. WHICH NHC TAKES
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE THRU 00Z SUN. MOTION OF THE STORM WILL BE
SLOW AND ERRATIC AS FAY IS BOXED IN BY A LARGE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
ERN U.S. THAT EXTENDS DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL GOMEX. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL REMAIN HIGH AS FAY DRAGS DEEP TRAILING MOISTURE IN FROM THE SW
ATLC/BAHAMA BANK ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. GIVEN FAY`S SLOW MOVEMENT
AND CLOSE PROXIMITY...WILL NOT TRY TO SPLIT HAIRS AS TO WHERE THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL OCCUR. WILL BLANKET THE CWA WITH 70% ON FRI AND
60% SAT.

EXTENDED...
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL PUSH OFF THE ERN SEABOARD SUN AND
MERGE WITH THE BERMUDA RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AS THE T.S. FAY (OR HER
REMNANTS) MOVES INTO THE LWR MS VALLEY. DEEP E/SE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE FL PENINSULA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TAPPING HIGH MOISTURE
AND PUSHING IT ACROSS THE CWA. DEEP E/SE FLOW IN A HIGH MOISTURE
ENVIRONMENT TYPICALLY RESULTS IN DECENT PRECIP COVERAGE FOR E FL.
FURTHERMORE...WITH UNCERTAINTY WRT THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS
OF FAY AFT MON...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT 50% THRU THE PD WITH
TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS TO IFR VSBYS IN RAINBANDS AROUND FAY
TODAY...AFFECTING NRN TERMINALS INCLUDING MCO/SFB/LEE AND DAB. HAVE
ISSUED AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING (AWW) THROUGH 22Z FOR DAB/MCO WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 25 KNOTS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35-45 KNOTS PSBL
MAINLY IN SQUALLS. SRN TERMINALS MLB/VRB...WILL SEE BETTER CHC OF
HEAVY RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH RAIN BANDS REDEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND SEAS OVER 10 FT OFFSHORE THE VOLUSIA
COUNTY COAST. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BY LATER TONIGHT AS FAY MOVES INLAND AND
WEAKENS. SCA WINDS/SEAS WILL LINGER INTO FRI OVER THE NRN OFFSHORE
LEG...BUT CONDITIONS WILL DROP BLO 20KTS/6FT OVERNIGHT FRI INTO SAT
AS T.S. FAY DRIFTS ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE. THE BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SW ATLC IN HER
WAKE. THE RIDGE WILL GENERATE A MODERATE E/SE BREEZE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SEAS IN THE 2-4FT RANGE NEARSHORE AND 3-5FT RANGE OFFSHORE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 84 77 86 76 / 100 80 70 50
MCO 84 75 88 75 / 100 80 70 50
MLB 86 77 87 76 / 90 70 70 50
VRB 87 76 86 74 / 80 60 70 50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MARTIN-OKEECHOBEE.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
RIVER-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST. LUCIE.

TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20
NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

[KWT]

Looks like the center is moving back over Florida.

I still will be surprised if it moves south enough to get into the gulf but a due west track then it may well get into the gulf waters near the panhandle briefly I reckon.

[Ground_Zero_92]

OMG I just woke up and Fay is still in the same spot. Unbelievable. My prayers are with my neighbors to the north. 14 inches of rain was enough for me. I can't imagine how much flooding this is causing you.

[Frank P]

THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...
HOWEVER...SHOULD FAY GO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.

uhhhhh summary
.. not sure exactly how stong she'll be but somebody somewhere probably to the west is going to get really really wet...

[KWT]

Well thats the thing Frank, it doesn't really matter even if it stays inland it seems like the biggest threat is for the rainfall still with such a slow moving system, some places in N/C.Florida have justbeen totally hammered with some pretty mental rainfall totals.

[hiflyer]

Looking closely at the aviation summary of the MLB discussion I realized that KMCO may be closed a lot today. Commercial jets start getting into crosswind limits about 20 kts and most are definitely out by 30-35 kts. Since KMCO only has N/S runways and no E/W ones the current conditions as of 6am eastern of west winds at 22 gusting to 30 already cuts some flights out.

This video is an example of an attempt with a reported 30-35 kt crosswind with an airbus aircraft in Hamburg recently.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxDVq2gGgaA

[fasterdisaster]

Melbourne has gotten upwards of 20 inches from Fay!

[Sihara]

OMG I just woke up and Fay is still in the same spot. Unbelievable. My prayers are with my neighbors to the north. 14 inches of rain was enough for me. I can't imagine how much flooding this is causing you.

Yeah, it's unreal, doesn't look as if it has moved much at all. Poor Melbourne looks miserable - some areas like Satellite Beach getting over 2 feet of rain! And the rain keeps coming. Must be purely awful, dealing with that.

And recent discussions can't rule out a more southwestward track. How likely is that, given the high building westward?

[KWT]

Wow 20 inches, thats really impressive rainfall!!

[stormy1970al]

No one knows what ole Fay is going to do and where she is going. I wake up this morning to check on this darn storm thinking that just maybe she is dying out and she is still going. Then I look at the new report and the computer models and it doesn't look good. Maybe my work place was onto something yesterday when they started getting our phone numbers and having us call the 1 800 emergency number. One thing I know is that we sold some water and batteries. I imagine if there is any chance that this system could get in the warm waters of the GOM the store is going to be very busy.

[Aric Dunn]

hey all im out chasing fay.. and have been at it all night here.. so far the worst is just getting here, im up here in ormond by the sea ....



wind gust to 59 mph so far.

[KWT]

Well I suspect its going to stay just a little too far north to get into the gulf though obviously due west would be enough to get it there at least for a short time.

[HURAKAN]

[O Town]

Well doesn't look like Fay moved too much over night.
Woke up to a lake in my back yard, luckily hubby thought ahead enough to bury a bucket in the low area and drop a sump pump in to pump to the front ditch, it will help alleviate it somewhat.
Those poor peeps in Melbourne, I saw a guy on an air mattress on the news trying to flee his home. They have gotten the fish and game out there with boats taking folks out of their homes this morning.
Fay its time to move on honey, play time over. Now beat it!

[Aric Dunn]

here with hurricanetrack.com , mark and jesse here just south of flagler beach winds gusting 65mph

[KWT]

Looks fairly messy on that IR but then again its mid range TS so thats to be expected I suppose.

The thing is look how much deep convection is sitll on the eastern side will have to come across florida at some point.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Would not be sure

Looks like the center is moving back over Florida.

I still will be surprised if it moves south enough to get into the gulf but a due west track then it may well get into the gulf waters near the panhandle briefly I reckon.

Would not be so sure KWT. Models have been trending southward quite a bit and the 4:00 nhc discussion even mentions the ridge building stronger west and south. One or two more shifts south and this thing will be moving wsw/ w through the entire northern gulf to wherever its next landfall location might be in the next couple of weeks