ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FAY...CENTERED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000
MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[KWT]

Convection flaring up with 94L yet again despite the pretty unfavorable pattern.

I really do think this has a chance further west, remember the way Dolly and Fay kept firing up conveciton depsite the poor set-up and both eventually developed thanks to that presistance.

Convection probably being enhanced by Dmax.

[fasterdisaster]

The thing is conditions aren't HOSTILE, they just aren't overwhelmingly FAVORABLE. Sure upper-level conditions aren't ripe at that longitude, but the acceptable SSTs and low shear should be enough to sustain 94L until it moves into the Caribbean.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Yep fasterdisaster the conditions just aren't condusive right now for a system to develop out of 94L just yet, do thin its going to be just a matter of time before it gets into better conditions, probably not much before the Caribbean however IMO.

[cycloneye]

This 0600 UTC update from dvorak was not posted so here it is.

21/0600 UTC 12.1N 45.8W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

[HURAKAN]

AL, 94, 2008082106, , BEST, 0, 121N, 455W, 25, 1007,

[KWT]

Lines up very well indeed!

also note the ULL is now moving a little WNW over the past 6hrs, will be interesting if that continues as it should mean the conditions slowly improve.

I think this will be one to watch in Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

794
ABNT20 KNHC 211141
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FAY...CENTERED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ABOUT 20
MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 975
MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

A SMALL 1007 MB LOW IS ANALYZED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 12N46W
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS TO THE W OF THE LOW WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 12N47W TO 14N52W.

[cycloneye]

12:00 UTC Best Track:

AL, 94, 2008082112, , BEST, 0, 122N, 472W, 25, 1007, LO, 34,

[Gustywind]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
21/1045 UTC 12.1N 47.0W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic Ocean
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[KWT]

Looks like convection is flaring up just to the west of the best track region but overall convection is increasing even if the placement of the convection isn't super great for development.

[Gustywind]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi
Latest from NRL site:
94L.INVEST, TRACK_VIS, 21 AUG 2008 1145Z
12,1 N 45,5 W 25 KTS 1007 hpa

[Gustywind]

Looks like convection is flaring up just to the west of the best track region but overall convection is increasing even if the placement of the convection isn't super great for development.

You're right nice flaring up here is a nice sat pic given by Meteo-France
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Whereas, we should continue to monitor it...

[KWT]

Yep and also still pretty much heading due west with a nice big high to the north I find it hard that its going to gain enough latitude to miss the Caribbean from this point given the synoptics.

[Gustywind]

Yep and also still pretty much heading due west with a nice big high to the north I find it hard that its going to gain enough latitude to miss the Caribbean from this point given the synoptics.

Absolutely KWT you're right ....the HIGH to the north shoud not allow for any recurve so this will cross the Eastern Carib or maybe the Northern Leewards as.... Invest or TD or much more ( should it verifies first) !

[Sanibel]

I was going to write last night that 94L is probably going to do what 92L and the wave behind it did. If you remember 92L was the weaker looking of the two and out ahead of the stronger-looking wave but was the one that developed after all was said and done. Looks like this is happening again. There's a subtle pattern where the weaker forward wave develops and the stronger rear wave dissipates. Also, the forward wave, like Dolly and Fay does some deep d-min phases where it looks like it is a goner but then bursts back in promising convection. Weird 2008 pattern. Deep pulses then form.

I would say flat-track into the Caribbean but the models seem to want to pull it up. The circulation is compressed W-E.

[HURAKAN]

666
NOUS42 KNHC 211430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THU 21 AUGUST 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z AUGUST 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-082

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM FAY -- TEAL 70
A. 23/0000Z
B. AFXXX 2706A FAY
C. 22/2200Z
D. 29.7N 84.1W
E. 22/2300Z TO 23/0500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 15.5N 59.0W AT 23/1800Z.

11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[tolakram]