ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[rockyman]

Using GRLevel3, she appears to have moved north by about 20 miles since 6am this morning (she's about 20 miles closer to the JAX radar site than she was 3 hours ago).

[mutley]

Using GRLevel3, she appears to have moved north by about 20 miles since 6am this morning (she's about 20 miles closer to the JAX radar site than she was 3 hours ago).

Does it also look like the eye feature has expanded?

[Dean4Storms]

Storm Spotter report that boards on the Jax. Bch. Pier are lifting off.

[Sanibel]

Yeah, that N tick is just enough to put it over the cooler upwelling waters N of Canaveral. But Fay probably has its energy spread further out in the bands that are still being conveyor belt-fed by the moving Gulf Stream that brings fresh warm water under Fay continuously.

[rockyman]

Using GRLevel3, she appears to have moved north by about 20 miles since 6am this morning (she's about 20 miles closer to the JAX radar site than she was 3 hours ago).

Does it also look like the eye feature has expanded?

yes...but it doesn't appear to be just eye expansion...because the southern extent of the eye is now located where the center of the eye was 3 hours ago (so it's moved by "half an eyes-length" to the north)

[rockyman]

if it moves much further north, Jacksonville will get into the "eyewall"

[tolakram]

Jacksonville

[cpdaman]

Using GRLevel3, she appears to have moved north by about 20 miles since 6am this morning (she's about 20 miles closer to the JAX radar site than she was 3 hours ago).

i concur , this may put the kibbash on the GOM threat

Dean the fetch pointed toward jacksonville must be producing some of the biggest surf there in a long while

pressure's falling off of St. auggie and rising in daytona (north move , north move!) prob NNNW

[Sabanic]

Beginning to wonder if the high is ever going to have any influence on her at all

[tolakram]

Well if Fay gets much bigger she'll be affecting the gulf without ever getting there.

[Steve]

Wanted to say that for those who were dissing the ECMWF in discussion last night, here's a run from 12z on Wednesday, August 13, 2008. I'd like to see anyone produce a model from that far out that approached the solution. FWIW, hopefully anyone so inclined will spare the proverbial "blind squirrell" idea because it would be wrong. Caveats are prior or immediate subsequent runs did not do the same thing and the move toward Jacksonville at the end didn't occur.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

Push the play button on the "step" side.

Steve

[KG4HPN]

Using GRLevel3, she appears to have moved north by about 20 miles since 6am this morning (she's about 20 miles closer to the JAX radar site than she was 3 hours ago).

I don't have any fancy radar, but I live at 29.2 N 81.0 W and, based on my nifty flag on wundermap, she really doesn't seem to have moved off due east of my house.

[cpdaman]

saint auggie bouy temp 78.4 vs. canaveral 76.3 also near shore water's at st. auggie are cooled but still 78.6, could support another 5mph IMO

not sure the water are getting cooler sanibel

[tailgater]

I saw A bit of northeast jog earlier and now a westward jog or the start of her treback across Fla.

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

78 degrees is beneath the 80 degrees needed to support tropical development and is by definition "cool".

But the deep eastern band is being fed by the 86 degree Gulf Stream.

[fasterdisaster]

Hi - Hi! We're your Weather Girls - Ah-huh -
And have we got news for you - You better listen!
Get ready, all you lonely invests
and don't leave those umbrellas at home. - Alright! -

Humidity is rising - Barometer's getting low
According to all sources, the street's the place to swim
Cause tonight for the thousandth time
Just about half-past eternity
For the billionth time in history
It's gonna keep raining Fay.

It's Raining Fay! Halle-no-jah! - It's Raining Fay! Amen!
I'm gonna go out to run and let myself get
Absolutely soaking wet!
It's Raining Fay! Halle-boo-jah!
It's Raining Fay! Every Century!
Droll, long, stopped, and seen
Rough and tough and strong and mean

We ticked Mother Nature, she's a crazy woman too
She took off to Florida and she did what she had to do
She taught every raindrop to rearrange the street
So that each and every person could find a perfect boat
It's Raining Fay! Halle-no-jah! - It's Raining Fay! Amen!
It's Raining Fay! Halle-boo-jah!
It's Raining Fay! Ame---------nnnn!

I feel stormy weather / Moving on already begun
Hear the thunder / I've already lost my head
Rip off the roof and stay in bed

We ticked Mother Nature, she's a crazy woman too
She took off to Florida and she did what she had to do
She taught every raindrop to rearrange the ocean
So that each and every person could find a perfect boat
It's Raining Fay! Yeah!

Humidity is rising - Barometer's getting low
According to all sources, the street's the place to swim
Cause tonight for the thousandth time
Just about half-past eternity
For the billionth time in history
It's gonna keep raining Fay.

It's Raining Fay! Halle-no-jah! - It's Raining Fay! Amen!
It's Raining Fay! Halle-boo-jah! - It's Raining Fay!

It's Raining Fay!
It's Raining Fayyyyyy!
It's Raining Fay!

[Sanibel]

Tropical storm with a somewhat hurricane-like Dvorak and pressure.

[jasons2k]

I think she's beginning her trek WNW now

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

At one point wasn't Bertha over 75F water? I thought at that time that the NHC said that 75F was the coolest it could be with out it weakening. I could be wrong but I don't think so.