ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[carversteve]

A couple of the models,which grant it are most likely terrible..have fay in the gulf going towards..do i dare say it.....Louisiana..bad models maybe??? Bad Fay..most definately!!!!!The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS

[RL3AO]

If it followed the NHCs track, it would make two landfalls on the Florida peninsula.

[SouthFloridawx]

Nah.. before landfall there needs to be three more land eye wall replacement cycles, 6 center reformations, apparent deviations off track and resisting to come onshore. That's just as she's coming ashore... Wait till we see what she's got in store after she makes landfall.

We got landfall yet officially?

nope.

[Dean4Storms]

I think she be movin on.

Looks like Jax. to St. Aug. going to feel the brunt of this.

[Stratusxpeye]

Fay is one amazing looking TS right now.

[KWT]

High pressure seems to be really pushing down upon Fay now, it really shouldn't be long before this starts moving to the west and back onto Florida...again!

[KG4HPN]

Fay is one amazing looking TS right now.

I was looking at the IR on the psu e-wall and thought the same thing. She actually made my eyes bug out!

[Steve]

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php

Think the NWS SE Radar tells the story even if the surface obs haven't fallen in line yet. That's a big center of circulation, but you can see that it's not just "expanding on the west side" here. JMO, but clearly the motion has begun.

FWIW, those "bad models" do include the 00z runs of the GFS and UKMET, the latter of which portends heavy rain and possible training problems for anyone east of Lake Pontchartrain probably over to Santa Rosa/Okaloosa Counties. Didn't run the "rainfall rates" because I don't trust any global's handling of precip, but the setup is there.

Steve

[jdray]

Only a couple of inches so far of rain, wind is picking up to 20mph+ and higher gusts in some of the rain....


Pressure has dropped at my house 4mb in the past few hours. I would not be surprised to see Fay start moving west anytime now...

[jdjaguar]

I think she be movin on.

Looks like Jax. to St. Aug. going to feel the brunt of this.

Looks like the "eye" will be going directly over our house if Fay maintains a NW course as she moves ashore.

We are in St. Johns county due NW of St. Augustine.

I will post any interesting observations as she comes ashore. The good news is we are 23 miles inland, but that won't stop the rain.

May our power remain on...fingers crossed.

[KWT]

Agreed Steve I can see the westward motion as well starting tooccur, only slow but I can see it as well...

[wxman57]

Daytona Beach now reporting a west wind at 17 gusting 24 and a pressure of 998.4mb. I think the center is nearing the coast north of Daytona Beach.

[wxman57]

I think she be movin on.

Looks like Jax. to St. Aug. going to feel the brunt of this.

Looks like the "eye" will be going directly over our house if Fay maintains a NW course as she moves ashore.

We are in St. Johns county due NW of St. Augustine.

I will post any interesting observations as she comes ashore. The good news is we are 23 miles inland, but that won't stop the rain.

May our power remain on...fingers crossed.

Fay's center is a large area about 40-60 miles across of relatively light wind. The strong winds are well east and southeast of the center, as per the HRD Fay wind field analysis that I posted a page or two back. Here's the link:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour04.png

[cpdaman]

I'm really surprised that the NHC didn't post tropical storm warnings for the FL big bend and west coast from Tampa Bay north. I'm actually shocked. With the latest track adjusted slightly south, it seems pretty clear that Fay would still be a weak tropical storm - even the NHC says that if she stays over GOM she will not weaken. Why not be safe and hoist the TS warning? It appears that Fay's circulation is going to take a long time to wind down - and once she gets half way across, she be tapping into the heat of the NE GOM.

highest winds on NE side, and after she weakens i don't think there is a need for TS warning on her west side. At the rate she's moving she will be lucky to be a weak TS should she cross w-e and the strongest winds would be on her right side anyhow.

also they have time to wait a while, why issue them now if ever?

Well, look at it this way, the NHC has a tropical storm forecast for their 24 hr position just 20 miles from the gulf coast. With a TS wind field of what 140 miles now, does that make sense to you? Besides, I can bet that us residents on the south side of Fay on the gulf coast will be experiencing those west winds which will push storm tides above normal.

No not really, the wind field right now barely has tropical storm winds on the west side, as WXMAN's graphic shows, give it a day over land, and that wind field will become weaker.

In reality i think the winds you will experience by late friday or saturday, will actually be less than a strong winter cold front, and even less than they are now. up the coast 75 miles they may be close to a decent cold front. but the coastal flood watches /warnings i believe are up and that is all that's needed (should the w winds even get to there forecasted rates)

[Frank2]

It's beginning to appear that Fay is being shunted northward towards a weakness to it's NNW:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[Ground_Zero_92]

If Fay's "eye" gets much wider on radar, it will almost be the width of the state in the area it's going to be crossing.

[HURAKAN]

[mutley]

If Fay's "eye" gets much wider on radar, it will almost be the width of the state in the area it's going to be crossing.

That is one enormous eye. I wonder if it will tighten up any when over land? And would that mean a chance of slightly higher winds?

[funster]

I wonder if Fay will strengthen on her second trek across Florida. She has spent a long time packing her bags and now she's finally ready for another trip.

[Sabanic]

I'm really surprised that the NHC didn't post tropical storm warnings for the FL big bend and west coast from Tampa Bay north. I'm actually shocked. With the latest track adjusted slightly south, it seems pretty clear that Fay would still be a weak tropical storm - even the NHC says that if she stays over GOM she will not weaken. Why not be safe and hoist the TS warning? It appears that Fay's circulation is going to take a long time to wind down - and once she gets half way across, she be tapping into the heat of the NE GOM.

highest winds on NE side, and after she weakens i don't think there is a need for TS warning on her west side. At the rate she's moving she will be lucky to be a weak TS should she cross w-e and the strongest winds would be on her right side anyhow.

also they have time to wait a while, why issue them now if ever?[/quote]


Well, look at it this way, the NHC has a tropical storm forecast for their 24 hr position just 20 miles from the gulf coast. With a TS wind field of what 140 miles now, does that make sense to you? Besides, I can bet that us residents on the south side of Fay on the gulf coast will be experiencing those west winds which will push storm tides above normal.[/quote]

No not really, the wind field right now barely has tropical storm winds on the west side, as WXMAN's graphic shows, give it a day over land, and that wind field will become weaker.

In reality i think the winds you will experience by late friday or saturday, will actually be less than a strong winter cold front, and even less than they are now. up the coast 75 miles they may be close to a decent cold front. but the coastal flood warning i believe are up and that is all that's needed.[/quote]

If she follows the NHC track or anything south of that the only residents will be fish that live south of her