ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[KWT]

I'm not sure its so much an eye just a large area of calm winds with convection displaced thanks to the large amount of land interaction its had IMO.

[Thunder44]

It's beginning to appear that Fay is being shunted northward towards a weakness to it's NNW:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Looks to me, more like outflow is expanding to the NW. The center is still moving west.

[fasterdisaster]

Uh...I think she stopped again guys.

[Sabanic]

It's beginning to appear that Fay is being shunted northward towards a weakness to it's NNW:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Looks to me, more like outflow is expanding to the NW. The center is still moving west.

That's what I was thinking

[Jason_B]

It's beginning to appear that Fay is being shunted northward towards a weakness to it's NNW:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

I don't see any northward motion on that.

[Noles2006]

Uh...I think she stopped again guys.

I think she's still slowly moving WNW-ward...

[cpdaman]

frank nice work, possibly

i just don't see how this get's across the state with steering currents so low, and that UL eroding the western side of the ridge, with the SW flow moving into the west-central gulf, perhaps she will just ride the coast for a loooong time.

waiting on the new 500-850 cimss steering charts (15 Utc)

[deltadog03]

It's beginning to appear that Fay is being shunted northward towards a weakness to it's NNW:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

I agree...The steering map I posted shows there is an opening to head more NW...Also, looks like the center is just NE of daytona beach...

[cpdaman]

Savanah, GA anyone lol

but seriously Brunswick Ga/ St. simons island

[KWT]

Radar pretty much shows its drifting very slowly towards the west again, I think that weakness though is part of the reason why I think this will head WNW rather than W like some models expect.

[Sabanic]

Savanah, GA anyone

Hmmm . . . Little too much to the north JMHO

[deltadog03]

KWT, I think radar may very well be a bit missleading...That is one big ring though!! lol

[jdjaguar]

I think she be movin on.

Looks like Jax. to St. Aug. going to feel the brunt of this.

Looks like the "eye" will be going directly over our house if Fay maintains a NW course as she moves ashore.

We are in St. Johns county due NW of St. Augustine.

I will post any interesting observations as she comes ashore. The good news is we are 23 miles inland, but that won't stop the rain.

May our power remain on...fingers crossed.

Fay's center is a large area about 40-60 miles across of relatively light wind. The strong winds are well east and southeast of the center, as per the HRD Fay wind field analysis that I posted a page or two back. Here's the link:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour04.png

that is sobering. I was not aware the wind field was limited to that quadrant.

I very much appreciate that link.

[deltadog03]

Also, that Radar beam is looking up at 3500 feet from the jax radar site...and 5000 from MLB.

[cpdaman]

Savanah, GA anyone

Hmmm . . . Little too much to the north JMHO

ya , just checked the map , brunswick looks like a better shot

[KWT]

I think its too hard to really know the exact direction using an IR that zoomed out given we are talking of motions of less then 2-3kts, not to mention its clearly still a messy storm.

[deltadog03]

I think its too hard to really know the exact direction using an IR that zoomed out given we are talking of motions of less then 2-3kts, not to mention its clearly still a messy storm.

very true!

[Ground_Zero_92]

With a center that big, if it goes west, it's going to get fed from the gulf waters and the Atlantic Ocean.

[Sabanic]

Think I'll just watch ole Fay and see what she does. Seems to have a mind of her own.

[Dean4Storms]

Clearly moving west now.