ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

Scorpion · #101 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:56 am

For what its worth, the HWRF is finally on board for development.

Scorpion · #102 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Aug 21, 2008 2:03 am

I don't know if this is 94L or the one behind it.. but impressive.

Wx_Warrior · #103 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Thu Aug 21, 2008 2:04 am

Very....Don't like that I dont see a H over me (SETX). Wonder why GFS is bullish.

Meso · #104 Postby **Meso** » Thu Aug 21, 2008 3:19 am

Heads into the Caribbean then turns North, then in the long range has the ridge building back and the storm moving into the gulf as a strengthening major with a pressure of 966, as well as (with what could be possible future invest 95l) to the NE

KWT · #105 Postby **KWT** » Thu Aug 21, 2008 4:35 am

CMC looks very much like the ECM by 240hrs, good agreement between the two of a powerful hurricane near Cuba.

#106 Postby **RL3AO** » Thu Aug 21, 2008 4:48 am

The Euro run is 94L. The area behind it would have to move 43kts to get there in 72 hours.

KWT · #107 Postby **KWT** » Thu Aug 21, 2008 4:49 am

Yeah exactly I thought so, very interesting to see what the Euro does with this system, makes into a pretty powerful hurricane.

#108 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 21, 2008 7:55 am

Where is the shear?

Code: Select all

       *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL942008  08/21/08  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    29    33    36    45    54    64    71    78    85    90    91
V (KT) LAND       25    27    29    33    36    45    54    64    71    78    85    61    46
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    29    31    37    44    52    62    71    82    62    41

SHEAR (KTS)        2     7     8     3     3     3     9     6     4     7     2     6    10
SHEAR DIR        142   122   177   191     1   238   358    92    30   162   315   204   300
SST (C)         28.2  28.2  28.3  28.4  28.5  28.4  28.3  28.5  28.6  28.8  28.8  28.9  29.2
POT. INT. (KT)   140   139   141   143   145   144   143   146   147   150   149   150   155
ADJ. POT. INT.   141   137   140   143   146   146   145   146   145   146   143   142   145
200 MB T (C)   -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1
TH_E DEV (C)      10    10    10    10    10    11    10    11    11    12    12    13    13
700-500 MB RH     63    56    55    58    58    52    55    49    53    49    52    44    45
GFS VTEX (KT)      0  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    81    66    49    34    33    22    29    13    22     2    -6   -29   -39
200 MB DIV         3    -2    16    30    13     0    19    -3    -3    -8    11   -19   -13
LAND (KM)        993   949   917   882   852   785   552   524   310    77    15   -47     0
LAT (DEG N)     12.2  12.4  12.6  12.8  13.0  13.7  14.5  15.5  16.4  17.3  18.0  18.8  19.3
LONG(DEG W)     47.2  48.2  49.2  50.4  51.6  54.4  57.6  60.6  63.5  66.2  68.8  70.8  72.8
STM SPEED (KT)    12    10    11    12    13    15    16    15    14    13    11    10    10
HEAT CONTENT      46    48    50    58    65    60    67    62    72    79    79  9999    12

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15      CX,CY: -14/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  664  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  29.3 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  42.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   2.   5.  11.  18.  23.  28.  32.  35.  38.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   2.   4.   6.   9.  11.  12.  14.  15.  16.  16.  16.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   5.   6.   6.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       2.   4.   8.  11.  20.  30.  40.  47.  53.  60.  65.  68.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.  -2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      2.   4.   8.  11.  20.  29.  39.  46.  53.  60.  65.  66.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008     INVEST 08/21/08  12 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   4.7 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  1.5
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  12.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.3
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 116.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.0
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  70.6 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  28.9 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.3
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  53.4 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    21% is   1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     3% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008     INVEST 08/21/08  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

Gustywind · #109 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:05 am

cycloneye wrote:Where is the shear?

Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 08/21/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 45 54 64 71 78 85 90 91 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 45 54 64 71 78 85 61 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 52 62 71 82 62 41 SHEAR (KTS) 2 7 8 3 3 3 9 6 4 7 2 6 10 SHEAR DIR 142 122 177 191 1 238 358 92 30 162 315 204 300 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 141 143 145 144 143 146 147 150 149 150 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 137 140 143 146 146 145 146 145 146 143 142 145 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 700-500 MB RH 63 56 55 58 58 52 55 49 53 49 52 44 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 66 49 34 33 22 29 13 22 2 -6 -29 -39 200 MB DIV 3 -2 16 30 13 0 19 -3 -3 -8 11 -19 -13 LAND (KM) 993 949 917 882 852 785 552 524 310 77 15 -47 0 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.7 14.5 15.5 16.4 17.3 18.0 18.8 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 47.2 48.2 49.2 50.4 51.6 54.4 57.6 60.6 63.5 66.2 68.8 70.8 72.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 11 12 13 15 16 15 14 13 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 46 48 50 58 65 60 67 62 72 79 79 9999 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 20. 30. 40. 47. 53. 60. 65. 68. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 8. 11. 20. 29. 39. 46. 53. 60. 65. 66. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/21/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 08/21/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

How to read the shear Cycloneye? Where should i put my eyes to have the shear values please?

#110 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:15 am

GFS 500MB 10 day also showing something suspicious near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola (Re: Fay Redux). It may be 94L or something behind it. Regardless, with several models bringing something near the NE Leewards, maybe 94L, its quite possible we'll have something there in the 7-10 day timeframe to closely watch.

KWT · #111 Postby **KWT** » Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:17 am

shear (kts) its the top value below the strength of the system, as you can see the SHIPS keeps the shear below 10kts pretty much the whole way across...but this hasn't exactly been very good at forecasting that recently.

Gustywind · #112 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Aug 21, 2008 9:10 am

KWT wrote:shear (kts) its the top value below the strength of the system, as you can see the SHIPS keeps the shear below 10kts pretty much the whole way across...but this hasn't exactly been very good at forecasting that recently.

Tkanks a lot KWT i appreciate

#113 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:16 pm

I wont say anything about this run from 12z CMC.See it yourself.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

DESTRUCTION5 · #114 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:24 pm

cycloneye wrote:I wont say anything about this run from 12z CMC.See it yourself.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Crazy uncle does it again!!!!

Wx_Warrior · #115 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:30 pm

LOL...Never thought I would say this but CMC did well with FAY.

Scorpion · #116 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:32 pm

12Z Euro does something similar

KWT · #117 Postby **KWT** » Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:36 pm

Very interesting set-up from the CMC, reminds me somewhat of a certain M storm from 1995 :eek:

Still that all depends on whether the upper high weakens to the extent the CMC shows, got a sneaky feeling its rather over doing that!

Scorpion · #118 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:40 pm

The Euro wipes the Bahamas off the map.

SWFLA_CANE · #119 Postby **SWFLA_CANE** » Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:42 pm

Scorpion wrote:The Euro wipes the Bahamas off the map.

Do you have a link??
Thx

Praxus · #120 Postby **Praxus** » Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:45 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:I wont say anything about this run from 12z CMC.See it yourself.

Note the other low its showing near barbados at the end of the loop..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2008082112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

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