ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[AdamFirst]

Rain shield seems to be drifting south.

[salescall]

I know someone out there will think I'm -removed- but I'll say this anyway, I would not be a bit surprised if Fay started moving a little south of due west. No science involved just seems like I've seen this scenario before. I'm sorry for yall in Fla. but also very happy that the peninsula is there.

If you look at the water vapor loop, http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html, it looks to be moving wnw. I also can't help but wonder what that ridge over TX/LA is going to do to Fay. Looks like it will send her north through AL and TN. I don't see that in any of the models, but it sure looks like the path of least resistance.

[NFLnut]

She will probably get fully organized once she is completely over land.

I don't think it usually works that way. What happened when Fay first crossed Fl.
was a fluke. Tropical systems weaken over land. They don't strengthen.

Not a fluke - I'd say it is a trend and it seems to be happening more frequently. More storms seem to be hanging in there longer than expected or intensifying over land. Maybe it has to do with something weird like global warming and the fact that nighttime temperatures have been much warmer on average the past 10 to 20 years or something but who really knows. Maybe it happens a lot and we just didn't notice until it recently. Whatever the reason - it does and is happening and it is no fluke.

Global warming .. ??

Sheesh!

Just wait until this winter when we have record low temps AGAIN and get back to me on that "warming" thing!

(Sorry folks .. just had to .. Now back to your regularly scheduled programming ..)

[MetsIslesNoles]

Leon schools closed tomorrow... county and state offices open... ought to be interesting...

[ronjon]

Higher octane fuel just ahead in the NE GOM.

[tolakram]

How slow can she go!

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

I'm still seeing a west/sw movement on radar (I know!) and honestly I'm probably wrong.

[Mattie]

Not a fluke - I'd say it is a trend and it seems to be happening more frequently. More storms seem to be hanging in there longer than expected or intensifying over land. Maybe it has to do with something weird like global warming and the fact that nighttime temperatures have been much warmer on average the past 10 to 20 years or something but who really knows. Maybe it happens a lot and we just didn't notice until it recently. Whatever the reason - it does and is happening and it is no fluke.

If that were the case then we have tropical systems forming on land all over the U.S. Please read the latest NHC discussion in reference to what will happen to Fay when her center is completely over land.[/quote]


We know what is SUPPOSE to happen, but Faye has not followed the rules - so we are expecting the unexpected.

[tailgater]

I know someone out there will think I'm -removed- but I'll say this anyway, I would not be a bit surprised if Fay started moving a little south of due west. No science involved just seems like I've seen this scenario before. I'm sorry for yall in Fla. but also very happy that the peninsula is there.

If you look at the water vapor loop, http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html, it looks to be moving wnw. I also can't help but wonder what that ridge over TX/LA is going to do to Fay. Looks like it will send her north through AL and TN. I don't see that in any of the models, but it sure looks like the path of least resistance.

That ULL trough is suppose to lift out in the next day or two but if Fay would hurry up she could catch it and send her on northward,

[Dean4Storms]

She will probably get fully organized once she is completely over land.

I don't think it usually works that way. What happened when Fay first crossed Fl.
was a fluke. Tropical systems weaken over land. They don't strengthen.

What happened with FAY is just another confirmation of the "Everglades Effect." Same thing happened with WILMA. Thing is .. north central Florida has no "Everglades."

.. and yet .. as I'm typing, the rain and winds are kicking up just north of Orlando again BIG time!

DIE FAY. DIE!!

Give Fay Time and she'll make her own Everglades over North Florida.

[NFLnut]

How slow can she go!

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

I'm still seeing a west/sw movement on radar (I know!) and honestly I'm probably wrong.

It is still moving West and even a little NW.

Remember that the radar pic you are looking at is oriented to make it easier to see. The peninsula of Florida actually sits at a slight NW to SE cant. Look at something like Google Earth or a U.S. map occasionally to orient the storm's proper movement.

[Dean4Storms]

I see an ever so slight South of due west movement, if she keeps that up she would emerge in the GOM near Cedar Key.

[jdray]

Give Fay Time and she'll make her own Everglades over North Florida.

Wouldn't take long, she has a good start with all of the swamps anyways.

[KWT]

Looks pretty much due west looking at that radar motion but its a little hard to tell given it has such a large circulation still.

[Dean4Storms]

How slow can she go!

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

I'm still seeing a west/sw movement on radar (I know!) and honestly I'm probably wrong.

It is still moving West and even a little NW.

Remember that the radar pic you are looking at is oriented to make it easier to see. The peninsula of Florida actually sits at a slight NW to SE cant. Look at something like Google Earth or a U.S. map occasionally to orient the storm's proper movement.

I've got RadarLab HD from WeatherTap and it does show a slight WSW movement on radar and yes it is oriented correctly.

[ronjon]

I see an ever so slight South of due west movement, if she keeps that up she would emerge in the GOM near Cedar Key.

That's where several of the models had her at 2 PM tomorrow. Of course, with a 40-60 mile wide eye like feature, probably some part will be touching Ceday Key.

[paintplaye]

I have to agree about the WSW movement.

[cpdaman]

it was the almost perfect upper level conditions including the silly amount of divergence that was present after she made landfall in naples that allowed her to strengthen on her way to Lake OKeechobe, perhaps you guys also remember that weak tropical system that all of a sudden strengthened in OKlahoma a year or two ago, same sort of deal, exceptionally favorable atmospheric conditions. not everglades, although obviously a lack of mountains helps.

you know it would have been so much better had she raced east of florida that early morning when she had that surpising acceleration thru central cuba.

[Ivanhater]

The Big "Eye" will be contracting in the coming hours and converging on the actual center on the southern side of the circulation...

[Steve]

>>Just wait until this winter when we have record low temps AGAIN and get back to me on that "warming" thing! Sorry folks, just had to.

Specious at best and I don't even believe in it. IMHO, no you didn't.
------------------------
Link to Super High Res Gulf SST's.

http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/averag ... _multi.png

Steve

[carversteve]

I have to agree about the WSW movement.

And correct me if i'm wrong..don't believe any of the models called for a w or wsw movement!! If this does get into the gulf at this slow speed...would this not streghten to possible hurricane status?? No bashing..just a question!