ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Blown Away]

Wow, talk about model agreement. If this verifies this will be a direct hit or close call for the CONUS .

[KWT]

Of course the thnig is I remember model agreement like that with Dolly but that ended up a heck of a lot further north. Still I think that track actually may not be all that far away from what happens, maybe a bit further west.

[DIDDLESBABE]

IF - this system develops and follows the path shown in diagrams above - what is the time frame?

Could it really be as close to Florida as it seems to show?
and at what strength?

[Blown Away]

Of course the thnig is I remember model agreement like that with Dolly but that ended up a heck of a lot further north. Still I think that track actually may not be all that far away from what happens, maybe a bit further west.

The BH ridge was virtually non existent when Dolly was out there.

[KWT]

Maybe but that didnt stop Dolly reaching border of Texas and Mexico blown away. The key is whether this forms further east, if at all before where Dolly did.

[Scorpion]

IF - this system develops and follows the path shown in diagrams above - what is the time frame?

Could it really be as close to Florida as it seems to show?
and at what strength?

The Euro and CMC would indicate a Cat 5 threat in about 8 days, but of course this will probably change.

[KWT]

Well maybe not cat-5 but the ECM pressure would certainly suggest somethin close to a major and thats just taking it at face value yet alone not taking into account the resolution issues.

[expat2carib]

Models keep going more and more west.

801
WHXX01 KWBC 201833
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1833 UTC WED AUG 20 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080820 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080820 1800 080821 0600 080821 1800 080822 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 43.5W 13.4N 46.2W 14.7N 49.1W 15.8N 52.3W
BAMD 12.5N 43.5W 12.9N 45.1W 13.4N 47.3W 14.1N 49.9W
BAMM 12.5N 43.5W 12.7N 45.6W 13.1N 48.0W 13.4N 50.6W
LBAR 12.5N 43.5W 12.7N 45.8W 13.4N 48.7W 14.2N 51.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080822 1800 080823 1800 080824 1800 080825 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.4N 56.1W 20.5N 63.1W 23.9N 67.9W 26.4N 68.8W
BAMD 14.7N 52.5W 15.7N 58.6W 17.0N 64.9W 18.4N 70.1W
BAMM 14.1N 53.7W 15.6N 60.0W 16.9N 66.0W 17.7N 71.4W
LBAR 15.5N 55.1W 18.5N 62.1W 21.9N 66.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 57KTS 71KTS 81KTS 87KTS
DSHP 57KTS 71KTS 81KTS 77KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 43.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 40.4W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 37.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Close to the Leewards Islands ( Guadeloupe) or just south near Dominica's channel, on this Cycloneye, not good news on this run, whereas we're a bit far away from a TD today, let's hope nothing more on that, but the probable path ( if 94L could be as a TD status first!) does not seems so pleasant for us in the islands as we're definitely approaching the heart of the season! Bear watching....

Models seem to show more and more consensus. That EURO model is a nightmare. IF and IF, what will be the ETA here in the Islands Gustywind?

I have to start learning to read those models.

[canegrl04]

If this verifies,looks like Gustav will be THE hurricane to remember of 2008

[93superstorm]

As soon Felix is out of the picture. models like Gfs will focus more on how this storm will play out

[Ola]

Models keep going more and more west.

801
WHXX01 KWBC 201833
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1833 UTC WED AUG 20 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080820 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080820 1800 080821 0600 080821 1800 080822 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 43.5W 13.4N 46.2W 14.7N 49.1W 15.8N 52.3W
BAMD 12.5N 43.5W 12.9N 45.1W 13.4N 47.3W 14.1N 49.9W
BAMM 12.5N 43.5W 12.7N 45.6W 13.1N 48.0W 13.4N 50.6W
LBAR 12.5N 43.5W 12.7N 45.8W 13.4N 48.7W 14.2N 51.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080822 1800 080823 1800 080824 1800 080825 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.4N 56.1W 20.5N 63.1W 23.9N 67.9W 26.4N 68.8W
BAMD 14.7N 52.5W 15.7N 58.6W 17.0N 64.9W 18.4N 70.1W
BAMM 14.1N 53.7W 15.6N 60.0W 16.9N 66.0W 17.7N 71.4W
LBAR 15.5N 55.1W 18.5N 62.1W 21.9N 66.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 57KTS 71KTS 81KTS 87KTS
DSHP 57KTS 71KTS 81KTS 77KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 43.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 40.4W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 37.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Close to the Leewards Islands ( Guadeloupe) or just south near Dominica's channel, on this Cycloneye, not good news on this run, whereas we're a bit far away from a TD today, let's hope nothing more on that, but the probable path ( if 94L could be as a TD status first!) does not seems so pleasant for us in the islands as we're definitely approaching the heart of the season! Bear watching....

Models seem to show more and more consensus. That EURO model is a nightmare. IF and IF, what will be the ETA here in the Islands Gustywind?

I have to start learning those models.

That run was like yesterday. You all realize there is nothing at that area right now? I dont think there is anything to initialize in the models. Any projection right now will probably be way off.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Quittin' time, just watched JB's 'Big Dog' video, he hadn't even seen the 12Z Euro yet, but he thought Euro idea of a monster could be right, but too far South, and 12Z Euro seems to match his ideas.

If the Canadian, with an attempted, but failed, recurve with a bend back West, or the Euro is right, 94L could be an Andrew or Hugo type storm for Florida or the Southeast.

Small difference at 10 days form Euro position or steering could even mean a Gloria or 1938 situation.

Too early to say, but stay tuned...

[expat2carib]

As soon Felix is out of the picture. models like Gfs will focus more on how this storm will play out

Felix????

[HUC]

Before the Conus,or Florida,it had to cross some territories!!!!!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

As soon Felix is out of the picture. models like Gfs will focus more on how this storm will play out

Felix?


GFS doesn't assign priorities on which systems to process most accurately, if I had to guess.

I've noticed a pattern before. When the GFDL stops losing invests well before 126 hours it is a sign conditions are becoming favorable for development. Also, if SHIPS keeps a disturbance initialized at 25 or 30 knots near steady strength for several days, that is its way of implying conditions aren't favorable for development.


This still looks disorganized. But some of the globals are sensing it has potential.


12Z UK Met doesn't start organizing this until the end of the six day run, but it seems the UK Met, like the NOGAPS, is a bit of the anti-Canadian, it plays systems down a bit.

[expat2carib]

That run was like yesterday. You all realize there is nothing at that area right now? I dont think there is anything to initialize in the models. Any projection right now will probably be way off.

Yesterday? http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_94.gif

[KWT]

I think the UKMO only really sees development of systems when the conditions are favorable, under marginally favorable conditions it tends not to do much, if it forecasts development then usually its got a good chance of doing just that.

[lonelymike]

The euro is a piece of junk when it comes to forecasting hurricanes.

[Ola]

That run was like yesterday. You all realize there is nothing at that area right now? I dont think there is anything to initialize in the models. Any projection right now will probably be way off.

Yesterday? http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_94.gif

The one you made reference to was:

1833 UTC WED AUG 20 2008

INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 43.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT

that is different from the link you provided now

[expat2carib]

That run was like yesterday. You all realize there is nothing at that area right now? I dont think there is anything to initialize in the models. Any projection right now will probably be way off.

Yesterday? http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_94.gif

The one you made reference to was:

1833 UTC WED AUG 20 2008

INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 43.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT

that is different from the link you provided now

Sorry for the misunderstanding but this was only a quote from another author. My point was that in the models of TODAY there was more consensus.

I should have said it more clear.