ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

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jlauderdal
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#12381 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:05 pm

caneman wrote:I know RonJon mentioned this earlier but I'm a little bit unclear as to why Tampa/St.Pete isn't under TS Watch/Warning. In looking at radar and IR either the system is sinking/moving South or is expanding South. Winds have picked up here. Thoughts?


Its simple, NHC doesnt expect conditions that warrant watches/warnings, that could change later but if they thought it was required that would do it.
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paintplaye
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#12382 Postby paintplaye » Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:06 pm

caneman wrote:I know RonJon mentioned this earlier but I'm a little bit unclear as to why Tampa/St.Pete isn't under TS Watch/Warning. In looking at radar and IR either the system is sinking/moving South or is expanding South. Winds have picked up here. Thoughts?


They don't expect it to move any farther south. If it moves farther south I am sure you will go under one.
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Frank P
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#12383 Postby Frank P » Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:07 pm

cone wars.. let the battles begin

The great states of Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana are the only states ATTM who are completely in the cone... I might add that Alabama is also questionable as part of their cone is on the line in the NE section of the state.. if this were an Olympic track race they would have to be disqualified... :lol:
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#12384 Postby rockyman » Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:09 pm

Frank P wrote:cone wars.. let the battles begin

The great states of Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana are the only states ATTM who are completely in the cone... I might add that Alabama is also questionable as part of their cone is on the line in the NE section of the state.. if this were an Olympic track race they would have to be disqualified... :lol:


but we have a very believable fake birth certificate
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#12385 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:09 pm

paintplaye wrote:
caneman wrote:I know RonJon mentioned this earlier but I'm a little bit unclear as to why Tampa/St.Pete isn't under TS Watch/Warning. In looking at radar and IR either the system is sinking/moving South or is expanding South. Winds have picked up here. Thoughts?


They don't expect it to move any farther south. If it moves farther south I am sure you will go under one.


I will be happy to issue one for anyone that would like it, i can include massive flooding and power outages in my write up too for effect.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#12386 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:13 pm

rockyman wrote:
Frank P wrote:cone wars.. let the battles begin

The great states of Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana are the only states ATTM who are completely in the cone... I might add that Alabama is also questionable as part of their cone is on the line in the NE section of the state.. if this were an Olympic track race they would have to be disqualified... :lol:


but we have a very believable fake birth certificate


LOL! Good one!
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paintplaye
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#12387 Postby paintplaye » Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:16 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
paintplaye wrote:
caneman wrote:I know RonJon mentioned this earlier but I'm a little bit unclear as to why Tampa/St.Pete isn't under TS Watch/Warning. In looking at radar and IR either the system is sinking/moving South or is expanding South. Winds have picked up here. Thoughts?


They don't expect it to move any farther south. If it moves farther south I am sure you will go under one.


I will be happy to issue one for anyone that would like it, i can include massive flooding and power outages in my write up too for effect.



OOOO Write one for Houston haha :lol:
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#12388 Postby beachlover » Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:22 pm

Can someone please tell me where I should post a question about a specific area and forecasting from the pros here? I am co-chair of the beach restoration on Cape San Blas, Florida. I obviously am concerned about Fay's track. I also have a new webcam on the house here, which is 1000 feet from the active restoration point. We don't have ABS on it yet (my husband was bringing it down tomorrow but now he's waiting to see if we're stopped or delayed). I don't want to post a link unless that's approrpriate either. Anyway, where can I ask for professional opinions on what we'll see here? I do the blog for our restoration project and people will begin to ask me questions about what will happen and I want to be informed. I apologize if this is not where I should post. Thanks in advance for any asssitance. Laurel
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MetsIslesNoles
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Re: Florida Closings - Schools, businesses etc.

#12389 Postby MetsIslesNoles » Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:28 pm

fci wrote:
wmk7479 wrote:Leon schools closed tomorrow... county and state offices open... ought to be interesting...


Now, isn't that a weird combination?
Kids stay home while parents have to got owork for the county or state.
Wouldn't one think that they would synchronize the schedules a bit???


You're assuming common sense. :)
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#12390 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:29 pm

YAAAHH, are we going back out to sea??? looks like 6nm to splashdown??
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Re:

#12391 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:30 pm

deltadog03 wrote:YAAAHH, are we going back out to sea??? looks like 6nm to splashdown??


I wasnt gonna say it, but I think you might be right.
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#12392 Postby latemodel25 » Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:32 pm

Hmm sure looks like shes headed south despite the models. tells me maybe some of the lonesome ones (models) may have been correct afterall. guess we will wait and see how this plays out.
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Frank P
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#12393 Postby Frank P » Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:33 pm

I would prematurely speculate it is in a big NW wobble for an extremely small distance.
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Brent
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#12394 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:33 pm

I give up... again. Can't wait to see the NHC at 11. :P
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Re:

#12395 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:33 pm

deltadog03 wrote:YAAAHH, are we going back out to sea??? looks like 6nm to splashdown??



Huh? I got the center in SW Flagler County near 29.3N 81.4W
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Re:

#12396 Postby HurricaneQueen » Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:34 pm

caribepr wrote:Ok, Uncle!!!! I'm taking on the burden of Fay, not exactly sure how this works but it's something about asking you all to pay attention to us in the islands year after year, and now I'm in Orlando, where what has become Fey Fay followed me; where I've just asked my daughter if that truly is mold on my toes. I give!!! I'll have all mercy for you all forever more (thought I did already but apparently not).
Excuse me, I have to go back to the altar of appeasement. Lucky for me, the sacrificial wine is waiting. But to keep it on topic, I believe the new questioned heading of WSW...Fay is going to center right on this house and then be on her way. It's all clear to me now.



Funny post, MJ. So now we know who to blame for our visitor who over stayed her welcome (Fay, not you!). PLEASE don't consider coming here until Fay is long dissipated!

On topic: After suffering rain bands for the better part of the mid-day, things are finally getting quiet in SW FL. My thoughts are with all of you who are in the midst of her wrath! Stay safe!

Lynn
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#12397 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:35 pm

I got 29.2N and 81.1W either way she looks like she is about to run out of land AGAIN!!!
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#12398 Postby Shawee » Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:35 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

from this perspective, Fay seems to be caught in a sweeze-play from the NE dry air moving in and another from the NW pushing in across the plains. the gulf may be the path of least resistance, at least in the short term.... NOT A PRO... Just an observation.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#12399 Postby tailgater » Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:37 pm

Looks like it's NW of Stanford/Orland Airport.

Conditions at Aug 21, 2008 - 09:21 PM EDTAug 21, 2008 - 08:21 PM CDTAug 21, 2008 - 07:21 PM MDTAug 21, 2008 - 06:21 PM PDTAug 21, 2008 - 05:21 PM ADTAug 21, 2008 - 04:21 PM HDT
2008.08.22 0121 UTC
Wind from the SW (230 degrees) at 30 MPH (26 KT) gusting to 38 MPH (33 KT)
Visibility 1 3/4 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Heavy rain
Mist
Precipitation last hour 0.21 inches
Temperature 75 F (24 C)
Dew Point 71 F (22 C)
Relative Humidity 88%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.49 in. Hg (998 hPa)
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#12400 Postby HurricaneBelle » Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:38 pm

Shawee wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

from this perspective, Fay seems to be caught in a sweeze-play from the NE dry air moving in and another from the NW pushing in across the plains. the gulf may be the path of least resistance, at least in the short term.... NOT A PRO... Just an observation.


Heckuva job, Shawee. :D

(Sorry, had to say that given your avatar)
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