ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[DESTRUCTION5]

The TAFB keeps 94L with the low through 72 hours and puts the low near PR & Hispanola, earlier the TAFB dissipated the low after 24 hours.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

TAFB must have taken a gander at the EURO ...LOL

[HURAKAN]

The TAFB keeps 94L with the low through 72 hours and puts the low near PR & Hispanola, earlier the TAFB dissipated the low after 24 hours.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

TAFB must have taken a gander at the EURO ...LOL

hwrf agrees.

[cycloneye]

Up to code Orange:

[Blown Away]

The convection dies off and the NHC puts 94L at code "Orange", just goes to show how much we know!
The convection starting to pop on the IR again.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[Blown Away]

The TAFB keeps 94L with the low through 72 hours and puts the low near PR & Hispanola, earlier the TAFB dissipated the low after 24 hours.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

TAFB must have taken a gander at the EURO ...LOL

hwrf agrees.

What is causing these models to go W and make hard right turns?? Recurve is one thing, but 90 degree turns??

[cycloneye]

From 8 PM Discussion:

A SMALL 1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 12N49W
MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 49W-53W.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[ConvergenceZone]

Hehe, yep, we knew Orange was coming!...As long as the convection is able to retire, this should be our next player....

[ConvergenceZone]

Blown_away, yea, those models showing a 90 degree right turn are pretty funny. That obviously isn't correct, but I think that's it's just because they have a hard time handling the general of invests....While most waves that come off Africa are fishes, I don't see this being a fish at all. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it misses the main islands to the south and goes just underneath PR as it enters the carib...

[HURAKAN]

Atlantic Loaded for Bear
Updated: Thursday, August 21, 2008 6:54 PM

The central and eastern Atlantic will remain a minefield for potential tropical development in the days ahead. Of course, that's the way it usually is this time of year. By late August, the ocean is as warm as it is going to get, plus any interference from the jet stream is usually minimal. These ripe conditions usually persist through much of September, when the frequency of tropical development reaches its peak.

This picture was taken earlier Thursday, and it shows that African wave train to be quite active. The wave train is nothing more than low pressure systems that form over Africa and drift westward into the Atlantic. A large number of these waves move off Africa every hurricane season, but only a handful mature into tropical storms and hurricanes.

The current situation does looks ripe though, and at least one of the cloud masses you see here will probably become the next named storm in the Atlantic.

Story By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist John Kocet.

Link: http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.a ... &article=3

[cycloneye]

The 00:00 UTC Best Track for 94L:

AL, 94, 2008082200, , BEST, 0, 122N, 501W, 25, 1007, LO, 34,

[SouthFloridawx]

This is a Bear Watch. The International Bear Forecasting Service has issued a Bear watch for the North Tropical Atlantic Basin. At 1:16 UTC, the Bears gathered and finalized a bear watch for the following locations:

Cape Verde Islands
Eastern and Central Atlantic
The Caribbean and all Islands and waters in and around them
The Gulf of Mexico, Including the BOC
The rest of the Northern Atlantic Ocean
The East Atlantic Coast of the United States
Central America and Mexico

Repeat At 1:16 UTC the International Bear Forecasting Service has issued a Bear Watch. Please tune into your Local, State and National Weather Bureaus for accurate forecast information.

Have a great evening!

King Bear

[HurricaneBelle]

This is a Bear Watch. The International Bear Forecasting Service has issued a Bear watch for the North Tropical Atlantic Basin.

This bear watch is for Sabanic:



But just so nobody gets the wrong idea, Go Gators!

[jlauderdal]

This is a Bear Watch. The International Bear Forecasting Service has issued a Bear watch for the North Tropical Atlantic Basin. At 1:16 UTC, the Bears gathered and finalized a bear watch for the following locations:

Cape Verde Islands
Eastern and Central Atlantic
The Caribbean and all Islands and waters in and around them
The Gulf of Mexico, Including the BOC
The rest of the Northern Atlantic Ocean
The East Atlantic Coast of the United States
Central America and Mexico

Repeat At 1:16 UTC the International Bear Forecasting Service has issued a Bear Watch. Please tune into your Local, State and National Weather Bureaus for accurate forecast information.

Have a great evening!

King Bear

that bear took a look at the euro for 94L and hightailed right back to cooler waters, geez if that euro comes close to verifying watch out

[ConvergenceZone]

HURAKAN, thanks for posting that interesting article about the Atlantic....Hmmm, right on time to as I look at the calendar...

[Patrick99]

Lot of stuff to watch closely, to say the least.

Somehow, looking at all these westward-trucking invests, and the pattern grudgingly changing into September, I have a distinct idea that Florida isn't done for the year. We will go from not enough water to way too much. And then there's October into November....

[Sabanic]

This is a Bear Watch. The International Bear Forecasting Service has issued a Bear watch for the North Tropical Atlantic Basin.

This bear watch is for Sabanic:



But just so nobody gets the wrong idea, Go Gators!

ROLL TIDE !!!!!!!

[tgenius]

Lot of stuff to watch closely, to say the least.

Somehow, looking at all these westward-trucking invests, and the pattern grudgingly changing into September, I have a distinct idea that Florida isn't done for the year. We will go from not enough water to way too much. And then there's October into November....

I am thinking the same..it is gonna be a bumpy ride from here on out..

[Sanibel]

Like Fay and Dolly, this is either one of these weird 2008 disappearing d-mins or dissipation. A little close to the bigger and better 95L catching up behind. The surface feature on 94L is not too robust.

Take notice of the convection inside the large circulation at 18N above 95L. It could be a third system developing.

[ConvergenceZone]

Sanibel, well, the thing is, 94L would clearly be winning the battle if conditions were better for its development, but as the NHC is saying, they will be better in the next couple of days, that's when I think 94L will leave potential 95L in the dust.... The TWO isn't saying anything at all about 95L developing.

[cycloneye]

The TWO isn't saying anything at all about 95L developing.

That is because the invest was activated after the 8 PM TWO was out.