ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[LowndesCoFire]

Time for my nightly broken record...have a goodnight and cant wait to see what new tricks the morning might hold in store.

P.S. Where did Invest 95L come from? Just saw that one.

[MiamiensisWx]

Actually, TS Warnings/Watches were not issued for the entire Florida coastline; the region from Anna Maria Island to Aripeka (in the general vicinity of Tampa Bay) did not receive them.

Secondly, a single TC does not influence the outcome for a particular region during the rest of the season. The 1950 analogy is false, in my view.

Thirdly, Fay produced EXTREMELY prodigious precipitation across east-central Florida. There were confirmed totals in excess of +20 inches near Melbourne. If the data is confirmed, according to this sourced list, Fay will likely join the top ten "wettest" tropical cyclones to affect Florida.

Finally, the Tampa Bay shield (and the "overdue" concept) is a dangerous MYTH. No region is "protected", and the probabilities of a TC strike remain unaltered every season.

[Mattie]

the conditions in the GOM might not be favorable right now, but what about 2 weeks from now when fay finally emerges into the GOM?

I think Fay will be gone within a week.

Well, don't think so hard. Fay has been so unpredictable - that anything is up for grabs as far as I can tell. (which isn't much)

[MiamiensisWx]

Actually, TS Warnings/Watches were not issued for the entire Florida coastline; the region from Anna Maria Island to Aripeka (in the general vicinity of Tampa Bay) did not receive them.

Secondly, a single TC does not influence the outcome for a particular region during the rest of the season. The 1950 analogy is false, in my view.

Thirdly, Fay produced EXTREMELY prodigious precipitation across east-central Florida. There were confirmed totals in excess of +20 inches near Melbourne. If the data is confirmed, according to this sourced list, Fay will likely join the top ten "wettest" tropical cyclones to affect Florida.

Finally, the Tampa Bay shield (and the "overdue" concept) is a dangerous MYTH. No region is "protected", and the probabilities of a TC strike remain unaltered every season.

Bump...

[Stormcenter]

You know, it appears possible that this makes a third AND FOURTH landfall in Florida.

That is VERY likely in my opinion but with storm like this anything is possible so please don't
hold me to that prediction. I still can't believe she is only moving at 2mph.

[sfwx]

Java plot so far, PLENTY more to come.....

http://hurricane.terrapin.com/ATL-06A/JavaPlot.html

[Janie2006]

Great. NHC guidance suggests (and discussion actually states) that Fay stalls out again in 72 hours.

[MiamiensisWx]

This is WONDERFUL news. We may see Fall very early this season. Anyway I think is safe to say the 2005 record season will stand for another season. I don't see 22 storms in the next 3 months.

Honestly, 2005 was an EXCEPTIONALLY rare season like 1933, and Fay's heavy precip has adeptly demonstrated that it only takes ONE TC...

[JonathanBelles]

Actually, TS Warnings/Watches were not issued for the entire Florida coastline; the region from Anna Maria Island to Aripeka (in the general vicinity of Tampa Bay) did not receive them.

Secondly, a single TC does not influence the outcome for a particular region during the rest of the season. The 1950 analogy is false, in my view.

Thirdly, Fay produced EXTREMELY prodigious precipitation across east-central Florida. There were confirmed totals in excess of +20 inches near Melbourne. If the data is confirmed, according to this sourced list, Fay will likely join the top ten "wettest" tropical cyclones to affect Florida.

Finally, the Tampa Bay shield (and the "overdue" concept) is a dangerous MYTH. No region is "protected", and the probabilities of a TC strike remain unaltered every season.

All of Pinellas County had a TS Warning and a Hurricane Watch

[HurricaneBelle]

Actually, TS Warnings/Watches were not issued for the entire Florida coastline; the region from Anna Maria Island to Aripeka (in the general vicinity of Tampa Bay) did not receive them.

Not quite.

The Tampa Bay area was in a Hurricane Watch:
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
2100 UTC SUN AUG 17 2008

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH ON THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO TARPON SPRINGS.

and then a TS warning:

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
2100 UTC MON AUG 18 2008

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO TARPON
SPRINGS. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

Actually, as of this moment, the only Florida coastline that hasn't received any TC watches/warnings is from north of Tarpon Springs to the mouth of the Suwanee River.

[LaunchGal]

hmmm, now fay's stall near daytona beach is making more sense to me... SPRING BREAK!!!!

LOL!

You made me think of something though. The two places she hung around the most were Kennedy Space Center and Embry Riddle Aeronautical University.

If a more accurate forecast on her next vacation spot is desired, forget computerized algorithms and past experience. Just look along the northern Gulf coast in the aerospace industry.

But don't tell her that we're finally on to her...

[MiamiensisWx]

Thanks for the clarifications!!!

[Stormcenter]

Great. NHC guidance suggests (and discussion actually states) that Fay stalls out again in 72 hours.

We may be still talking about Fay into September at this rate.

[JonathanBelles]

Governor Charlie Crist today announced that Florida has received an Emergency Declaration from the President of the United States, through the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), as a result of the flooding rains and severe weather caused by Tropical Storm Fay August 18, 2008 and continuing.

“We are grateful to President Bush and Administrator Paulison for their
timely response in granting this request,” said Governor Crist. “Nearly all of our
67 counties will have been impacted by the time Fay leaves our state and these
funds will help our local and state partners recoup the costs of keeping Floridians
safe.”

The initial request, submitted by the Governor on August 20, is specifically
for disaster assistance through the Public Assistance program, in categories A
and B to cover the costs of debris removal and protective measures taken by the
counties and state agencies to ensure the safety of their residents during the
landfall and trek of Tropical Storm Fay across the state.

http://floridadisaster.org/index.asp

[HurricaneBelle]

Thanks for the clarifications!!!

No problem. Your analyses have been most welcome and informative. And even this post did educate me in one manner - despite living in the Tampa Bay area since 1976, I had no idea where the heck Aripeka was. Now I know it's just south of Spring Hill. Although I believe the NHC actually uses Bayport, just north of Spring Hill, as a breakpoint for watches/warnings.

EDIT: I stand corrected. According to the official list, Aripeka is a breakpoint and Bayport isn't. This must have been a recent change because I distinctly recall Bayport being used in the past. Chassahowitzka is the next breakpoint north. Although I never understood why both Tarpon Springs and Anclote Key are both breakpoints, given that they're within about a mile or two of each other.

Full list of breakpoints is at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/breakpoints_table.shtml for anyone interested.

[amanda]

does anybody know the longest period of time that a named storm has existed? maybe fay will break that record when it's all said and done. you all should know that i am in no way hoping for that though. i'm ready to shift to invest 94, but fay just won't go away!

[tailgater]

Seems to really light up the last few frames.
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... flanim.gif

[tampawx]

There are still areas of Florida not directly affected by Fay (yet). If watches end up being issued for the extreme western panhandle, I believe this storm will have caused watches/warnings for all of the coastline

All but a small part of the Gulf Coast....Tarpon Springs to Aripeka has not been under any watch/warning during Fay.

[Sihara]

Actually, TS Warnings/Watches were not issued for the entire Florida coastline; the region from Anna Maria Island to Aripeka (in the general vicinity of Tampa Bay) did not receive them.

Secondly, a single TC does not influence the outcome for a particular region during the rest of the season. The 1950 analogy is false, in my view.

Thirdly, Fay produced EXTREMELY prodigious precipitation across east-central Florida. There were confirmed totals in excess of +20 inches near Melbourne. If the data is confirmed, according to this sourced list, Fay will likely join the top ten "wettest" tropical cyclones to affect Florida.

Finally, the Tampa Bay shield (and the "overdue" concept) is a dangerous MYTH. No region is "protected", and the probabilities of a TC strike remain unaltered every season.

This is such a good point. I've heard this before, that Tampa Bay "doesn't get" hurricanes - which is baloney. In terms of sheer number of storms, obviously S. FL and NC are going to get the lion's share, simply due to their location. But we all know the cliche "it only takes one." Sooner or later, Tampa Bay is going to get hammered.

And I can't even begin to imagine what this place would look like if it got as much rain as Melbourne is getting.

You mentioned the 1950 analogy - do these so-called analogies hold up? Because in order to be the slightest bit comparable to a current system, the entire atmospheric set-up would have to be the same, wouldn't it?

Also, you said the area north of Anna Maria Island to Aripeka wasn't under TS watches/warnings. Actually, hurricane watches were briefly put up from Anna Maria all the way north to Tarpon Springs.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Actually, TS Warnings/Watches were not issued for the entire Florida coastline; the region from Anna Maria Island to Aripeka (in the general vicinity of Tampa Bay) did not receive them.

Secondly, a single TC does not influence the outcome for a particular region during the rest of the season. The 1950 analogy is false, in my view.

Thirdly, Fay produced EXTREMELY prodigious precipitation across east-central Florida. There were confirmed totals in excess of +20 inches near Melbourne. If the data is confirmed, according to this sourced list, Fay will likely join the top ten "wettest" tropical cyclones to affect Florida.

Finally, the Tampa Bay shield (and the "overdue" concept) is a dangerous MYTH. No region is "protected", and the probabilities of a TC strike remain unaltered every season.

This is such a good point. I've heard this before, that Tampa Bay "doesn't get" hurricanes - which is baloney. In terms of sheer number of storms, obviously S. FL and NC are going to get the lion's share, simply due to their location. But we all know the cliche "it only takes one." Sooner or later, Tampa Bay is going to get hammered.

And I can't even begin to imagine what this place would look like if it got as much rain as Melbourne is getting.

You mentioned the 1950 analogy - do these so-called analogies hold up? Because in order to be the slightest bit comparable to a current system, the entire atmospheric set-up would have to be the same, wouldn't it?

Also, you said the area north of Anna Maria Island to Aripeka wasn't under TS watches/warnings. Actually, hurricane watches were briefly put up from Anna Maria all the way north to Tarpon Springs.

I hope you people don't really believe that anyone really believes that myth? Certainly it is obvious to anyone in their right mind that Tampa Bay doesn't have a force field around it. Folks in Tampa Bay know it and joke about it, but certainly don't believe it in the slightest.

We get our fair share of tropical systems each year. We just haven't had a big one in a long time. Lucky for us so far, but not impervious.

Would you believe me if I said that Darth Vader himself has a house in Clearwater and is using the Force to deter any tropical systems?! Let's keep it real folks.