ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
93superstorm
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 79
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:41 am

#161 Postby 93superstorm » Thu Aug 21, 2008 6:17 pm

Wow srry, I meant fay. Just came back and have no idea how I typed felix
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#162 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 21, 2008 6:59 pm

Image

Fay 2, no thanks!
0 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneBelle
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1179
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:12 pm
Location: Clearwater, FL

Re:

#163 Postby HurricaneBelle » Thu Aug 21, 2008 7:40 pm

93superstorm wrote:Wow srry, I meant fay. Just came back and have no idea how I typed felix


Well, Fay has had what seems to be nine lives, just like a cat, and then there's Felix The Cat, so I can see how that might have happened. :)
0 likes   

User avatar
Ola
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 299
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2003 11:24 pm
Location: Dorado, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Central Atlantic Model Runs

#164 Postby Ola » Thu Aug 21, 2008 7:48 pm

expat2carib wrote:
Ola wrote:


The one you made reference to was:

1833 UTC WED AUG 20 2008

INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 43.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT

that is different from the link you provided now


Sorry for the misunderstanding but this was only a quote from another author. My point was that in the models of TODAY there was more consensus.

I should have said it more clear. :double:



NP! Didnt mean it ina bad way. Just got confused when I saw the model coords.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145285
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Central Atlantic Model Runs

#165 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:23 pm


WHXX01 KWBC 220038
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0038 UTC FRI AUG 22 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080822 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080822 0000 080822 1200 080823 0000 080823 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 50.1W 13.3N 53.0W 14.6N 56.1W 15.9N 59.5W
BAMD 12.2N 50.1W 12.9N 52.4W 13.8N 55.0W 14.6N 57.8W
BAMM 12.2N 50.1W 12.9N 52.6W 13.7N 55.2W 14.6N 58.2W
LBAR 12.2N 50.1W 12.9N 52.9W 13.8N 56.0W 15.0N 59.5W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080824 0000 080825 0000 080826 0000 080827 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 62.6W 19.2N 68.9W 21.5N 72.7W 23.4N 75.1W
BAMD 15.5N 60.8W 17.6N 66.2W 20.0N 69.7W 21.1N 72.1W
BAMM 15.7N 61.2W 17.8N 66.6W 20.0N 70.5W 21.4N 73.0W
LBAR 16.4N 62.7W 19.7N 68.3W 23.7N 70.8W 25.6N 70.7W
SHIP 57KTS 77KTS 88KTS 92KTS
DSHP 57KTS 77KTS 81KTS 85KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 50.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 47.2W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 44.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN


Image
0 likes   

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5194
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Central Atlantic Model Runs

#166 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Aug 21, 2008 9:15 pm

Yikes Cyclone, those model plots you just posted are not good...I mean, not good in the sense that may allow it to strengthen more due to less land interaction, but it is good for the islands, give them a breather, and it looks to be making a beeline for Florida/SouthEast Coast......It will be interesting to see what type of fluctuations we see in the models over the upcoming days.
0 likes   

jaxfladude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1249
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:36 pm
Location: Jacksonville, Fla

#167 Postby jaxfladude » Thu Aug 21, 2008 9:19 pm

Fay please tell you BFF Invest94L that you recommend a FISH cruise.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Central Atlantic Model Runs

#168 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 21, 2008 9:40 pm

lonelymike wrote:The euro is a piece of junk when it comes to forecasting hurricanes. :roll:


Didn't do too bad with Fay south of Florida.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Central Atlantic Model Runs

#169 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 21, 2008 11:10 pm

Anybody got the 0z run of the GFS handy for 94L?
0 likes   

User avatar
LaBreeze
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1497
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:57 pm
Location: SW Louisiana

Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Central Atlantic Model Runs

#170 Postby LaBreeze » Thu Aug 21, 2008 11:13 pm

I have family headed to the Bahamas on Sunday for the week. Anyone see 94L as being a big threat to the Bahamas?
0 likes   

Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Central Atlantic Model Runs

#171 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Aug 21, 2008 11:17 pm

It's just coming out...here is 108 hrs...

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
bahamaswx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1542
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:11 am
Location: Georgetown, Bahamas

Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Central Atlantic Model Runs

#172 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Aug 21, 2008 11:28 pm

LaBreeze wrote:I have family headed to the Bahamas on Sunday for the week. Anyone see 94L as being a big threat to the Bahamas?


Not if it's gotta run over Hispaniola to get here. We missed out on the rain from Fay and could really use this, but it looks like it'll be a caribbean tracker... that is if it even develops at all.
0 likes   

User avatar
LaBreeze
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1497
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:57 pm
Location: SW Louisiana

Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Central Atlantic Model Runs

#173 Postby LaBreeze » Thu Aug 21, 2008 11:36 pm

Thanks for the reply - you're right, we need to wait and see if it even develops. :)
0 likes   

fasterdisaster
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1868
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:41 pm
Location: Miami, Florida

#174 Postby fasterdisaster » Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:08 am

Well looks like this has potential (though I feel better being in the bullseye this far out) to be a BIG one for Miami.
0 likes   

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6108
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re:

#175 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:12 am

fasterdisaster wrote:Well looks like this has potential (though I feel better being in the bullseye this far out) to be a BIG one for Miami.

Dont feel too comfortable...guidance is tightly clustered, and amazingly, they all take the the path with the least amount of land interaction possible....right in between PR and DR
0 likes   

Scorpion

#176 Postby Scorpion » Fri Aug 22, 2008 1:05 am

Image
0 likes   

Scorpion

#177 Postby Scorpion » Fri Aug 22, 2008 1:10 am

UKMET

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Meso
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1609
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: South Africa
Contact:

#178 Postby Meso » Fri Aug 22, 2008 1:34 am

Here is the extended long range CMC 00z Run.

Image



Major Hurricane with a minimum pressure of 945, which then continues NW and makes landfall along the east coast near North Carolina
0 likes   

User avatar
Meso
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1609
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: South Africa
Contact:

#179 Postby Meso » Fri Aug 22, 2008 2:09 am

Image

Fish? (Well depending how strong it is before hitting the D.R)
Last edited by Meso on Fri Aug 22, 2008 2:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Central Atlantic Model Runs

#180 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Aug 22, 2008 2:09 am

GOOD!
0 likes   


Return to “2008”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests