ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[sittingduck]

On the shear in 72 hours issue - I am curious - if Fay is projected to be inland in 72 hours - how does this apply to the intensification possibility in the Gulf? Is the NHC saying - that if for some reason Fay stays in the Gulf longer than projected then the shear becomes an issue?

[Sabanic]

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST WESTERLY SHEAR TO IMPACT FAY STARTING IN ABOUT 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD STOP INTENSIFICATION REGARDLESS OF WHETHER IT IS OVER WATER OR NOT.



That's 72 hours down the road. MONDAY, not while she skims the gulf.

[Noles2006]

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST WESTERLY SHEAR TO IMPACT FAY STARTING IN ABOUT 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD STOP INTENSIFICATION REGARDLESS OF WHETHER IT IS OVER WATER OR NOT.



That's 72 hours down the road. MONDAY, not while she skims the gulf.

Sabanic... the odds are firmly stacked against Fay strengthening even past 50 mph again... there is not much 'fuel' in the extreme NE GOM... and the land interaction will not help matters, either...

[Sabanic]

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST WESTERLY SHEAR TO IMPACT FAY STARTING IN ABOUT 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD STOP INTENSIFICATION REGARDLESS OF WHETHER IT IS OVER WATER OR NOT.



That's 72 hours down the road. MONDAY, not while she skims the gulf.

Sabanic... the odds are firmly stacked against Fay strengthening even past 50 mph again... there is not much 'fuel' in the extreme NE GOM... and the land interaction will not help matters, either...

I agree, but 45-50 with all that rain still ain't a walk in the park

[TideJoe]

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST WESTERLY SHEAR TO IMPACT FAY STARTING IN ABOUT 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD STOP INTENSIFICATION REGARDLESS OF WHETHER IT IS OVER WATER OR NOT.



That's 72 hours down the road. MONDAY, not while she skims the gulf.

Sabanic... the odds are firmly stacked against Fay strengthening even past 50 mph again... there is not much 'fuel' in the extreme NE GOM... and the land interaction will not help matters, either...

I agree, but 45-50 with all that rain still ain't a walk in the park

Compared to the storms the North GOM has seen the last 4 years, you'll barely notice a 45 mph wind. You'll have to pick up a couple limbs and rake your yard, but that'll be about it.

[Sabanic]

So I guess flooding and heavy rains will not be problem. Well guess I'll plan a day at the beach then.

[xironman]

I agree that there is not enough depth to super charge Fay in the NW gulf, but there is water about 82 degree there http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SGOF1.

[Noles2006]

So I guess flooding and heavy rains will not be problem. Well guess I'll plan a day at the beach then.

Nobody is saying that.

That said, I AM going to the beach today.

[TideJoe]

So I guess flooding and heavy rains will not be problem. Well guess I'll plan a day at the beach then.

You're going to get a lot of rain. I grew up in Baldwin county and remember the 30+ inches we got from Danny and the nearly 15 we got from Opal, but neither shut down the county. There will be localized flooding in low areas, but nothing catastrophic. Just be careful while driving and you'll be good to go.

[Sabanic]

So I guess flooding and heavy rains will not be problem. Well guess I'll plan a day at the beach then.

Nobody is saying that.

That said, I AM going to the beach today.

Have a good day Bro. I'd be speck fishing if I wasn't here at the office

[BigA]

Winds still sustained at 42 gusting to 55 at St. Augustine, which proves that this is a very broad windfield, though this was rather obvious already

[Noles2006]

So I guess flooding and heavy rains will not be problem. Well guess I'll plan a day at the beach then.

Nobody is saying that.

That said, I AM going to the beach today.

Have a good day Bro. I'd be speck fishing if I wasn't here at the office

I am going to do some surf fishing on Sunday (if the rain is gone)... I've heard that immediately after a weak storm (as long as the water isn't too dark and there isn't too much sea weed around), that surf fishing is pretty good... I guess I'll find out.

[jasons2k]

Yeah, I think it's clear the flooding threat is real. Especially if she (what's left of her) doubles-back east again.

[Clipper96]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

The upper-low/trough is falling apart, and Fay's upper-levels do not appear to be disturbed in the least. This implies her not weakening to TD quite as fast as expected.

[HURAKAN]

Lake Okeechobee water level as of Aug 22, 2008

12.52 ft.


About 2 ft. below historical average for this time of year.

THANKS FAY!

Lake O is coming back to normal and its water level should normalize in the following days as most of the run-offs from northern and central Florida arrive at the lake.

[cmdebbie]

Compared to the storms the North GOM has seen the last 4 years, you'll barely notice a 45 mph wind. You'll have to pick up a couple limbs and rake your yard, but that'll be about it.

Tell that to the 10,000 people in my county alone that are still without power. Also, to all of the people that are having to use boats to travel down their streets.

[Steve]

>>Lacking a core, there is not much low-level convergence at the center. This will make it a long, slow process to redevelop if the center was out over the Gulf.

Agreed. However, the flip side - to me anyway - would be the chance to pick up copious amounts more of moisture which seems to be the main threat for points west of Fay and east of me. Latest QPF I have access to still shows the potential for up to 21" (which I'm going to say - UNPROFESSIONALLY - is probably a little on the high side if in fact Fay moves out beyond 96-120 hours rather than finding herself within weak steering conditions {looking less likely but still not entirely out of the question}).

Steve

[TideJoe]

Compared to the storms the North GOM has seen the last 4 years, you'll barely notice a 45 mph wind. You'll have to pick up a couple limbs and rake your yard, but that'll be about it.

Tell that to the 10,000 people in my county alone that are still without power. Also, to all of the people that are having to use boats to travel down their streets.

No disrespect intended, but outside of the flooding threat, there will be little to worry about from Fay on the Northern GOM. Central Florida dealt with 60-65 mph winds and those are high enough to bring down some older/weaker trees, but we aren't going to see anything that high on the northern GOM.

[RL3AO]

No disrespect intended, but outside of the flooding threat, there will be little to worry about from Fay on the Northern GOM. Central Florida dealt with 60-65 mph winds and those are high enough to bring down some older/weaker trees, but we aren't going to see anything that high on the northern GOM.

The flood threat is everything. Flooding is what kills the majority of people in tropical cyclones.

[HURAKAN]

Compared to the storms the North GOM has seen the last 4 years, you'll barely notice a 45 mph wind. You'll have to pick up a couple limbs and rake your yard, but that'll be about it.

Tell that to the 10,000 people in my county alone that are still without power. Also, to all of the people that are having to use boats to travel down their streets.

No disrespect intended, but outside of the flooding threat, there will be little to worry about from Fay on the Northern GOM. Central Florida dealt with 60-65 mph winds and those are high enough to bring down some older/weaker trees, but we aren't going to see anything that high on the northern GOM.

No disrespect intended but most people that die during a storm die of drowning and not wind-related.