Well.........here we go again

weatherlover427 · #21 Postby **weatherlover427** » Sun Jul 13, 2003 11:20 pm

Prayers going up from southern California tonight.

azsnowman · #22 Postby **azsnowman** » Mon Jul 14, 2003 7:05 am

OK......I've got a 5 minutes to post then we're out the door, the briefing has been moved up to 0600, it's now 0500.

The fire has been renamed to the Kinishiba Fire, it's at 2000+ acres now and moving NE at a high rate of speed, it's in Bear Canyon which opens up at the Rim, if the fire comes out of the canyon this morning, this will force the evacuation of Pinetop. As the crow flys, the fire is now 6 miles south of Pinetop. Last nights fire behavior was unlike anything ever seen by fire fighters, normally a fire lays down at night, the fire was still running in spite of the RH being over 40%..........this could be an indication of what the fire will do today.

Steve, Bill........thanks for the calls, stay in touch, 45 minutes till sunrise........weather forecast for today, WINDY and temps even HOTTER than they have been.

Dennis

#23 Postby **azskyman** » Mon Jul 14, 2003 9:40 am

Copied from my post on the OFF TOPIC board....

Latest update...after a call to Michelle this morning at 7:30 local time (+3 hrs for east coast, +2 for central), the news is ominous.

The fire is in an area of rugged terrain below the Rim and is spreading through the narrow rugged canyons on its way up the escarpment. Best estimate of the fire's location from Pinetop itself is somewhere near 13 miles. A flyover was scheduled now that daybreak has arrived to assess its new parameters.

It appears that Whiteriver's risk will be on the north side (where the hospital is located) but more will be known after the assessment is done. Winds are expected to pick up as the day progresses. Michelle mentioned there was little wind at this time yet the fire is aggressively moving north.

A pre-evacuation message has gone out to Pinetop. That alerts residents with health problems or other difficulties to consider leaving now. Next step would likely be a voluntary evacuation...with a mandatory evacuation to follow if necessary.

Finally..the silver lining is that the experience of last year's fires have set the stage for much better management of time and resources...as well as warning capability.

I expect to hear from our Front Porch firefighters later this day...and will check in on them if I do not hear again within the next 4 hours.

They ask that you continue your prayers and understand the rapid-changing nature of their time commitments on the board or with the phone.

They are indeed the very best neighbors to have if ever you were to find yourself in harms way.Back to top

raine · #24 Postby **raine** » Mon Jul 14, 2003 3:40 pm

Thanks Steve for being keeping us posted on what is happening to Dennis, Michelle and their neighborhood.

Give them our prayers, thoughts and love

Raine

Arizwx · #25 Postby **Arizwx** » Mon Jul 14, 2003 4:59 pm

******14:00 MST***** 14JUL03******Update from Mrs Snowman******
Sections of PINETOP,WHITERIVER,LAKESIDE,HONDAH....
EVACUATION ORDER ISSUED AT APPRX. 13:00 hrs for the areas above and surrounding..including ingrees rt 260..raodblocks to be set up by Michelle and Dennis WMAT..
*****EVAC for MAX TIME:4-6 hours from 13:00*****
I called Michelle and Dennis per request if I found anything unusual..I did.
Collapsing T-Strm over Payson,AZ to the WNW of Pinetop resulted per FLZ
88-D several Outflow Boundries with lines of potentially hi winds..I apprx 49+ to the W and SW on a line from the Show Low Municipal Airport AWOS site.FLZ refreshed to see massive outflow which in realtion to the fire..is SW incoming and W incoming...
Fire is moving 110degree at 1-2mph...IOW exploding NE up the rim ridge.
Any SW flow or W flow could magnify the 'Fanning Principle' and cause a 'Blow Out' or Pryo Explosion of the racing fire...Rh is down -7 from Yesterday.Haines index is HI.
Michelle said they were approx 10nm from the main fire area...however..
HVY SMOKE was causing her some discomfort.We spoke on Mobile as She pulled up NWS FLZ(Flagstaff) and agreed on the geographic situation as it related to a possible Outflow..They are apprx 23nm NE of Show Low site.Also mentioned 88D is retarded by 20+min...and approx the outflow movement to 20+kt.Suggested a call to Show Low Muni for incoming wind reports.Roger That.
BTW,where was Dennis?At the Dentist...hence I spoke with a very intelligent,charming and brave young woman..Michelle..Ya got a good one there Dennis!
Again:EVAC 4-6 hrs from approx 1pm MST for areas mentioned.
Dennis and Michelle have a fire break of mowed Grass and no trees near the Homestead...Also the k-9 unit is being mobilized.
End:15:00hrs
DJ

therock1811 · #26 Postby **therock1811** » Mon Jul 14, 2003 5:08 pm

So does this mean that there's a mandatory evac order?? Can you clarify that DJ??

#27 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Mon Jul 14, 2003 5:21 pm

from the dire situation in the Whites, but we have a wildfire SE of Sierra Vista (probably in the Riparian area and probably though not sure yet that it's a lightning start) of sufficient intensity and size and proximity to homes that they are using a heavy Slurry bomber on it. Will provide more info when it becomes available. Lots of smoke in the air today due to smoke drift and subsidence also less boomer activity (so far).

Steve

Arizwx · #28 Postby **Arizwx** » Mon Jul 14, 2003 5:35 pm

therock1811 wrote:So does this mean that there's a mandatory evac order?? Can you clarify that DJ??

Called Michelle at 15:15 hrs..first outflow verified to 40+mph....Fire crews pulled off temporarily...Slurry and Helos Grounded due to hi wiinds..Spot fires and erratic fire activity noted...also mentioned 'Crowning' may occurr at the upslope or downslope location due to hi winds and erratic movemnet...Pondersosa Pine are over 200' hi...so the incoming Outlflow at that elev..apporx 7,000ft will catch it hi like a sail on a Yacht
Michelle noted..NO Mandatoy YET...howver..expected by 18:00hrs...Current notification was from Navajo Co Sherrif Dept...
IOW..not mandatory yet...Thx for the question.rock..
DJ

nystate · #29 Postby **nystate** » Mon Jul 14, 2003 8:25 pm

Stay safe! My thoughts and prayers are with you! :o

#30 Postby **Stephanie** » Mon Jul 14, 2003 8:53 pm

Thank you so much DJ, Steve and Steve for all of the updates! I hope that if the fire comes a knockin' at the homestead that the fire break will hold it.

I just thought of the elk that visit Dennis in his backyard. I hope that they will be able to escape too.

breeze · #31 Postby **breeze** » Mon Jul 14, 2003 9:50 pm

I echo the big "thanks" for the updates on Dennis and Michelle's
situation, ArizWx and azskyman!

They're most assuredly in my prayers!

azsnowman · #32 Postby **azsnowman** » Mon Jul 14, 2003 10:58 pm

copied from Off topic....good night all, it's Zzzzzz time:

Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2003 8:57 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

No manditory evac as of yet, it's 1.2 miles from the *triggerpoint*, which has been changed.....this fire is moving SOOOOOOOO damn fast, even under the cover of darkness.....in less than 2 hours (since my last post 1915 hrs) it's now at 5920 acres and STILL making an upslope run. DJ'S *buddy* Larry Humphreys in now on scene, JERK!

Anyways......ol snowmans dead folks, went to bed at 0030 hrs this morning, up at 0345 and have been on the run ALL day................"that is all!"

Dennis

azsnowman · #33 Postby **azsnowman** » Tue Jul 15, 2003 7:03 am

As of 0450 the Kinishba Fire stands at 6250+ acres, the Gov has activated the Az National Guard to aid in the evacuation of Pinetop, Lakeside, Hondah and McNary.

The smoke here at the house is almost unbearable, heavy ash is falling.

There are now 4 leading heads to this fire, it HAS crowned, overnight temps did not drop like expected, RH values are extremly low and forecast winds out of the south could fan the flames into Pinetop by evening.

DJ......yes indeed, MeShell is ONE heckuva lady isn't she??? How in the world she picked me, I'll never know "LOL!" I'm justa plain ol redneck mountain man, God was watching out for me that's for dang sure!

Dennis

azsnowman · #34 Postby **azsnowman** » Tue Jul 15, 2003 7:16 am

BTW DJ......I wasn't at the dentist, I was at the docotrs office, as if the the fire situation isn't bad enough, I was bitten on the left hand by a *brown recluse spider* Sunday evening while pruning up a cottonwood tree, when it rains it pours don't it???

Dennis

#35 Postby **azskyman** » Tue Jul 15, 2003 7:40 am

Dennis...you are getting a heavy dose of nature's wrath. Spider bites and fires being just two. The best to you, family, and friends on this day...as this is a day for which events under only His watchful eye will determine your course.

raine · #36 Postby **raine** » Tue Jul 15, 2003 8:56 am

Indeed Dennis when it rains it pours, but it's the wrong kind of rain...keeping you and yours in prayer...and let's hope for the right kind of rain and right soon at that...

Blessings, Tom and Jackie

therock1811 · #37 Postby **therock1811** » Tue Jul 15, 2003 10:05 am

Arizwx wrote:
therock1811 wrote:So does this mean that there's a mandatory evac order?? Can you clarify that DJ??

Called Michelle at 15:15 hrs..first outflow verified to 40+mph....Fire crews pulled off temporarily...Slurry and Helos Grounded due to hi wiinds..Spot fires and erratic fire activity noted...also mentioned 'Crowning' may occurr at the upslope or downslope location due to hi winds and erratic movemnet...Pondersosa Pine are over 200' hi...so the incoming Outlflow at that elev..apporx 7,000ft will catch it hi like a sail on a Yacht
Michelle noted..NO Mandatoy YET...howver..expected by 18:00hrs...Current notification was from Navajo Co Sherrif Dept...
IOW..not mandatory yet...Thx for the question.rock..
DJ

Thank you for clarifying. I hope and pray that this does NOT happen today... or any other day. Dennis and Michelle, we're praying for your safety during this horrific time.

azsnowman · #38 Postby **azsnowman** » Tue Jul 15, 2003 12:40 pm

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well folks....we've been activated, no definite time set but non the less, the evac is now on the horizon. We have not 1, 2 but 3 plumes, one rising to over 46K and no shear...PC'S rising off the N-E-S flanks.

NOW, we have 3 MORE confirmed fires, all near Show Low The work of a confirmed arsonist, can you believe this STUPID S.O.B general thoughts amongst the law enforcement community, a resident of either Linden, Chenney Ranch, Timberland Acres.......someone who lost everything last year and has nuthin' to loose! I CANNOT BELIEVE THIS BULL

I will be offline for sometime, out of contact on the cell phone, land line also, our area of duty is out of cell phone contact, I will post when we're relieved of duty. Pray my friends, pray!

Dennis

therock1811 · #39 Postby **therock1811** » Tue Jul 15, 2003 12:46 pm

Oh this is bad!!!!!!!!

We'll keep praying Dennis!!!!!!

azsnowman · #40 Postby **azsnowman** » Tue Jul 15, 2003 1:28 pm

Check out this radar loop, notice the blip due south of Show Low, not the one to the east, straight down near the county line.........that's the towering Pyro over the house!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... kfsx.shtml

dennis

Well.........here we go again

Not to Detract

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