ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[carversteve]

Looks like the center is moving slowly west in northern Levy County - about 20-30 miles north of Cedar Key. Nice convective burst over the west side of the center in the NE GOM - she's getting close now - maybe 20 or 30 miles from water. Overall oblong shape (W-E) of circulation seems to showing how hard high pressure is pushing down on Fay from the north.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southeast_loop.php

Ok shoot me for asking..did i see a slight sw movement on this last loop??

[rockyman]

Some suggestion on GR3 that the center might be consolidating on the western side of that hole...right on the Gulf Coast near 83.3W (storms to the west of the 11am center are now starting to move NW instead of S)

[Jason_B]

Looks like the center is moving slowly west in northern Levy County - about 20-30 miles north of Cedar Key. Nice convective burst over the west side of the center in the NE GOM - she's getting close now - maybe 20 or 30 miles from water. Overall oblong shape (W-E) of circulation seems to showing how hard high pressure is pushing down on Fay from the north.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southeast_loop.php

Ok shoot me for asking..did i see a slight sw movement on this last loop??

I saw the same, but that could be an illusion.

[Frank P]

interesting radar presentation, looks west to me as well and awful close to the coast

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

[Enzo Aquarius]

Looks like the center is moving slowly west in northern Levy County - about 20-30 miles north of Cedar Key. Nice convective burst over the west side of the center in the NE GOM - she's getting close now - maybe 20 or 30 miles from water. Overall oblong shape (W-E) of circulation seems to showing how hard high pressure is pushing down on Fay from the north.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southeast_loop.php

Ok shoot me for asking..did i see a slight sw movement on this last loop??

From the looks of it, possibly a very slight movement to the sw.

[Dean4Storms]

As much as Fay loved those warm Everglades I'm afraid she is going to love it when she gets to those 85 degree GOM waters, I think the NHC maybe underestimating this situation a bit.

[Frank P]

I saw the SW effect too but most likely all part of the wobbleing process... you would expect some if a system was moving west... just a SWAG on my part however...

[carversteve]

As much as Fay loved those warm Everglades I'm afraid she is going to love it when she gets to those 85 degree GOM waters, I think the NHC maybe underestimating this situation a bit.

She still looks decent and at this speed over those warm gulf waters

[rockyman]

Looks like the center is moving slowly west in northern Levy County - about 20-30 miles north of Cedar Key. Nice convective burst over the west side of the center in the NE GOM - she's getting close now - maybe 20 or 30 miles from water. Overall oblong shape (W-E) of circulation seems to showing how hard high pressure is pushing down on Fay from the north.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southeast_loop.php

Ok shoot me for asking..did i see a slight sw movement on this last loop??

From the looks of it, possibly a very slight movement to the sw.

I would think a WSW movement is possible for the next few hours as the bigger storms forming on the west side of the system (moving SOUTH) could "yank" the system south of due west until the center gets offshore

[mutley]

As much as Fay loved those warm Everglades I'm afraid she is going to love it when she gets to those 85 degree GOM waters, I think the NHC maybe underestimating this situation a bit.

If you look at that growing heavy band in the gulf, I'd say she changed her mind and now LIKES water.

[Frank P]

IF she could fill in the NE quad area just off the COC with some convection she would look quite interesting...

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

[Enzo Aquarius]

.AT 1100 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES NORTHEAST
OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...THEN MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES MAINLY
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SEVERAL STATIONS OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA
CONTINUE TO REPORT WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER OF FAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

[masaji79]

How many rounds is Fay gonna go? She's like a boxer. Keeps getting beat up, but keeps going.

[Sabanic]

How many rounds is Fay gonna go? She's like a boxer. Keeps getting beat up, but keeps going.

She is definitely a tough old girl for sure

[Enzo Aquarius]

* AT 1207 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
WATERSPOUT 9 NM NORTHEAST OF CRESCENT BEACH ASSOCIATED WITH A
RAINBAND FROM FAY...MOVING NORTH AT 28 KNOTS.

Even far from the center, Jacksonville-area is getting hit hard.

[mutley]

* AT 1207 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
WATERSPOUT 9 NM NORTHEAST OF CRESCENT BEACH ASSOCIATED WITH A
RAINBAND FROM FAY...MOVING NORTH AT 28 KNOTS.

Even far from the center, Jacksonville-area is getting hit hard.

That area has been catching it for a long time now. I'm wondering if any of that will make it here to Gainesville later today. I know that the highest winds are far from the center, but I have no idea what to expect.

[sunny]

Excuse me,but i do know what i am talking about..ty..i have been watching TWC since it began in the late 70's..use to be nothing but weather..they do have an agenda..it is global warming!! Thus the big sign in the background!!

I watched the program as well and they did address the Global Warming issue but as it relates to increased Hurricane activity. What I also heard said was that you have to look at the balance and while the Atlantic may have an increase in activity, part of the Pacific has decreased in activity so it kind of put a damper on that theory.

[mutley]

use to be nothing but weather..they do have an agenda..it is global warming!! Thus the big sign in the background!!

I quit watching it altogether because of it's new quasi-political nature. I use to have it on constantly.

[Enzo Aquarius]

Channel 4 news in Jacksonville is reporting localized flooding around the city.

[ronjon]

The "center" of Fay appears to be pivoting SW and looks like its just NE of Cedar Key - somewhat of a SW wobble over the last hour or so - maybe drawn closer by the convection over the NE GOM - Fay may be in the gulf by mid-afternoon.