Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Steve]

I definitely agree. I just threw them out there for grins and giggles. I don't think that run will verify with the 100+/- off the coastline at all.

[ROCK]

I can't see Fay getting that far south in the Gulf, models have been overestimating this ridge since day 1. Just looks like a big rain event across the central Gulf coast.

Jason,a few nights ago your thoughts were she would never make the GOM.

[LaBreeze]

I still don't actually think she will either.

[fasterdisaster]

How can anyone possibly still think she won't go into the Gulf?!

[nashrobertsx]

Are people on here just fed up with this thing because I notice very few people are posting at all. Or has this switched to a new thread or something? It's been on Page 154 for more than 12 hours now.???

[Frank P]

probably just tired and somewhat complacent... Fay not expected to do much except to dump a ton of rain, but that doesn't get posters all that excited... they like the thrill of the hunt.. I think most of the thrill might be gone for some.. just my opinion

regardless, unless something weird happens in the next couple of hours the COC of Fay will be entering the GOM.. I never trust these systems.. because they are so unpredictable... I see any kind of circulation in the GOM in Aug I don't care where its been if its coming at me... they always have surprises to.. Let see if Fay has any left in her.. unlikely ATTM

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just about in the GOMEX, but as Bastardi has pointed out, North winds ahead of Fay will tend to upwell cool water ahead of her, and as Dr. Lyons apparently noted (and also remarked on in early morning disco) shear is forecast to become unfavorable in a couple of days in the Northern Gulf.



If 6Z GFS shear forecast map at t-72 is correct, if Fay could get about a hundred miles further South than forecast, it would be under better shear conditions, and higher energy content waters.


So it isn't 100% certain it might not have one last surpise, (besides the huge losses from floods and coastal erosion). But it is unlikely it makes a big comeback in the Gulf.

[Jason_B]

Shear for the NGOM really isn't that bad, won't stop Fay from maintaining TS status IMO.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12Z GFDL goes to Houston...LOL Via a tour over 4 states,,

12Z HWRF Still camped out in NO...

[HURAKAN]

Join Fay and 12z GFDL and take the tour of the Gulf States!

Link: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Pearl River]

Hurakan wrote:

Join Fay and 12z GFDL and take the tour of the Gulf States!

Link: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

She hits a speed bump in LA...

[Stormcenter]

Shear for the NGOM really isn't that bad, won't stop Fay from maintaining TS status IMO.

It suppose to get bad in 72 hours though.

[Shawee]

Hurakan wrote:

Join Fay and 12z GFDL and take the tour of the Gulf States!

Link: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

She hits a speed bump in LA...

Thats not a speed bump, it's a pothole!

[TSmith274]

Hurakan wrote:

Join Fay and 12z GFDL and take the tour of the Gulf States!

Link: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

She hits a speed bump in LA...

Thats not a speed bump, it's a pothole!

Yeah I think I hit that one today

[nashrobertsx]

are you all posting on the wrong thread? Lower Keys?
I dont know what you are talkig bout andy your grahic shows Fay ober aL La. ,Miss. What am i missing here?