ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[jdjaguar]

use to be nothing but weather..they do have an agenda..it is global warming!! Thus the big sign in the background!!

I quit watching it altogether because of it's new quasi-political nature. I use to have it on constantly.

likewise

[mutley]

The "center" of Fay appears to be pivoting SW and looks like its just NE of Cedar Key - somewhat of a SW wobble over the last hour or so - maybe drawn closer by the convection over the NE GOM - Fay may be in the gulf by mid-afternoon.

Creeping ever closer to the beach, and I can't wait to see what happens.

[ronjon]

Impressive outflow and structure still.

[carversteve]

The "center" of Fay appears to be pivoting SW and looks like its just NE of Cedar Key - somewhat of a SW wobble over the last hour or so - maybe drawn closer by the convection over the NE GOM - Fay may be in the gulf by mid-afternoon.

Creeping ever closer to the beach, and I can't wait to see what happens.

Thinking it may be in the gulf a little longer than thought??.......Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[jasons2k]

Let's stay on topic and debate TWC via PM, not in this forum.

[mutley]

Impressive outflow and structure still.

Very. Also, relatively warm water, slow movement, and no shear.

[Emmett_Brown]

The "center" of Fay appears to be pivoting SW and looks like its just NE of Cedar Key - somewhat of a SW wobble over the last hour or so - maybe drawn closer by the convection over the NE GOM - Fay may be in the gulf by mid-afternoon.

I was noticing the same thing. Fay might be a TS over water soon... steering currents seem really weak. Not a surprise I guess, seeing as how slow she has moved. I dont trust Fay... I think it is still possible for one last flareup over the water.

[srainhoutx]

Let's stay on topic and debate TWC via PM, not in this forum.

Thank you.

[Emmett_Brown]

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES... 70 KM...NORTHEAST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

By the way tolakram, thanks for posting this chart. I have found it very useful during Fay since i didnt have time to track her this closely myself. Please keep it up if you have time...

[mutley]

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES... 70 KM...NORTHEAST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

By the way tolakram, thanks for posting this chart. I have found it very useful during Fay since i didnt have time to track her this closely myself. Please keep it up if you have time...

Same here. I have really appreciated those. Thanks tolakram.

[Enzo Aquarius]

And the Jacksonville-area gets hammered even more:

1246 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HAMPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...
NORTH CENTRAL JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT

* AT 1242 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
MCPHERSONVILLE...OR ABOUT OVER YEMASSEE...MOVING WEST AT 28 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE...
MCPHERSONVILLE...
EARLY BRANCH...
GRAYS...
CUMMINGS...
ALMEDA...VARNVILLE...

THIS TORNADO WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BECAUSE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES
THERE IS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A BRIEF...
ISOLATED TORNADO WITHIN THE WARNED AREA. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES
SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR STURDIER SHELTER.

[dixiebreeze]

Fay is almost right over us, raining hard, gusts. Looks like she's heading into the gulf a bit south of where forecasted. She should strengthen.

Check weather underground regional -- can't seem to copy and paste right now.

[divanicki75]

FYI Carolinans on here: There are a few counties under Tornado Watch now (until 6 PM here in Charleston).
Counties:
Allendale, Beaufort, Berkeley, Charleston, Colleton, Dorchester, Hampton and Jasper.

[Enzo Aquarius]

FYI Carolinans on here: There are a few counties under Tornado Watch now (until 6 PM here in Charleston).
Counties:
Allendale, Beaufort, Berkeley, Charleston, Colleton, Dorchester, Hampton and Jasper.

Also, the tornado warning in South Carolina has shifted to the east.

EDIT:

ANOTHER tornado warning has been issued, this time southeast of Jacksonville.

1252 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ST. JOHNS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
SOUTHEASTERN DUVAL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA

* UNTIL 130 PM EDT

* AT 1252 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES WEST OF
SAINT AUGUSTINE SOUTH...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF HASTINGS...MOVING
NORTH AT 34 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SAINT
AUGUSTINE SOUTH...SAINT AUGUSTINE...VILANO BEACH...SOUTH PONTE
VEDRA BEACH...DURBIN...GUANA RIVER STATE PARK...SAWGRASS AND PALM
VALLEY.

[jdjaguar]

tornado warning until 1:30 Neptune Beach/Mayport/Fernandina.....

JAX getiing HAMMERED.

[tolakram]

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES... 70 KM...NORTHEAST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

By the way tolakram, thanks for posting this chart. I have found it very useful during Fay since i didnt have time to track her this closely myself. Please keep it up if you have time...

Same here. I have really appreciated those. Thanks tolakram.

Thanks, I appreciate the feedback. I'm going to try and get a more accurate map for the next storm, but I'm not sure if I can keep up the pace. Maybe two updates a day. s2k has a tracking map too but it has a zoom problem that I keep forgetting to bug whoever does these things about.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... pn=1&ptm=1

The zoom needs to center on the current location in my opinion.

[Enzo Aquarius]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

Geez, look at that band in the Jacksonville-area. No wonder they're getting hit hard.

...and now a FLOOD ADVISORY has been issued.

1254 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IN...
BRYAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
SOUTHERN BULLOCH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
CANDLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
SOUTHERN CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL EFFINGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
EVANS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
NORTH CENTRAL LONG COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
TATTNALL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 230 PM EDT

* AT 1251 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM RIO VISTA TO
REIDSVILLE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTH OF
SAVANNAH TO REIDSVILLE...MOVING WEST AT 50 MPH.

[jdjaguar]

another tornado spinning off that band hitting St Auggie/Jax beaches...my location is about 20 miles inland...am signing off to prep safe room ...its going be a long day/night

[Andy_L]

stay safe JD

[Enzo Aquarius]

Stay safe!

In good news, the marine warning regarding the waterspout has been cancelled.