ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[SouthFloridawx]

EURO farther to the east...

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 220615
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC FRI AUG 22 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080822 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080822 0600 080822 1800 080823 0600 080823 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 51.1W 13.5N 54.2W 14.7N 57.6W 16.1N 60.9W
BAMD 12.2N 51.1W 12.9N 53.5W 13.6N 56.1W 14.4N 58.9W
BAMM 12.2N 51.1W 13.0N 53.7W 13.8N 56.5W 14.9N 59.6W
LBAR 12.2N 51.1W 12.8N 53.7W 13.8N 56.8W 15.1N 60.2W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080824 0600 080825 0600 080826 0600 080827 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 64.3W 19.3N 70.1W 21.1N 73.8W 22.2N 76.8W
BAMD 15.2N 61.7W 16.9N 66.8W 18.3N 70.7W 18.6N 74.0W
BAMM 15.8N 62.6W 17.9N 68.0W 19.8N 71.6W 20.5N 74.5W
LBAR 16.4N 63.5W 19.5N 68.9W 21.7N 71.6W 20.6N 74.1W
SHIP 59KTS 80KTS 90KTS 91KTS
DSHP 59KTS 80KTS 48KTS 50KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 51.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 48.6W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.1N LONM24 = 45.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Another nightmare to track? Stay tuned!

[KWT]

I think the best track will have to adjusted a good deal north, so the models may well be on the right track with this one if that does occur.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Man do they love the DR/Hisp this year or what....

[gatorcane]

TAFB approaching SE Bahamas:

[Ed Mahmoud]

EURO farther to the east...

Yes, but if Euro 500 mb pattern is correct, this may be forced North or Northwest, and not allowed to escape by that ridge...




I'm not convincved this develops, at least not in the short term. GFS still isn't on it, and GFS has been fairly good this year, and rapid lose of system on GFDL is usually a sign conditions don't favor immediate development.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Always nervous in the Carolinas in August with a consensus near the Bahamas. Not sold on developmnet of this system by any means. Agree on watching GFS and dervitives on this one.

[HouTXmetro]

Is there a chance this gets into the Central Gulf?

[RL3AO]

Is there a chance this gets into the Central Gulf?

Theres always a chance.

[Wx_Warrior]

Models too south with blob....

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL:

456
WHXX04 KWBC 221731
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 22

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.9 55.0 270./14.9
6 11.2 55.9 291./ 9.3
12 11.4 57.1 277./11.6
18 11.8 58.4 286./13.6
24 12.2 59.8 286./14.4
30 12.8 60.9 300./11.8
36 13.2 62.7 285./18.1
42 13.4 64.3 275./15.9
48 13.9 65.6 289./13.5
54 14.3 67.0 289./14.1
60 14.7 68.3 288./13.1
66 15.2 69.5 291./12.5
72 15.8 70.7 295./12.7
78 16.2 71.8 292./11.7
84 16.7 72.7 301./10.0
90 17.2 73.7 295./11.5
96 17.8 74.7 300./10.5
102 18.2 75.7 294./10.8
108 18.5 76.6 284./ 8.5
114 18.8 77.5 288./ 9.7
120 19.0 78.6 284./10.0
126 19.1 79.6 274./ 9.5

[Scorpion]

At least it develops it now.

[ConvergenceZone]

There's no way this will be a fish(if it develops) due to how far south it is at the moment..........

[AtlanticWind]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[HURAKAN]

We will see.

[MWatkins]

Looks like they initialized the GFDL at 11N 55W...much closer to the deeper thunderstorms. Also...intersting they initialized at 30 knots.

Not sure why no one posted the model plots but if there is indeed a circulation down there, it is totally protected from the upper low up north.

SAB had an awful center fix up at 13.6...that was clearly a mid center even though there are a few storms with it...

MW

[HURAKAN]

Most of the time the rule that applies is "discard all computer model tracks until the disturbance develops into a tropical cyclone."

[Meso]

12z CMC


Very interesting to see more model agreement now too.. wasnt expecting that GFDL

[KWT]

No the GFDL is very impressive, looks like conditions aren't as bad as the GFS was expecting...CMC was also interesting...

now we have to see the ECM but the models do seem to broadly agree on a fairly strong system developing.