ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

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dixiebreeze
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay over northern Florida Penninsula

#12721 Postby dixiebreeze » Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:09 pm

Station CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL

Owned and maintained by National Data Buoy Center
C-MAN Station
MARS payload
29.136 N 83.029 W (29°8'10" N 83°1'45" W)

Site elevation: 1.8 m above mean sea level
Air temp height: 9.1 m above site elevation
Anemometer height: 10 m above site elevation
Barometer elevation: 3 m above mean sea level


Latest NWS Marine Forecast 1 and Latest NWS Marine Forecast 2

Important Notice to Mariners

Search And Rescue (SAR) Data

Meteorological Observations from Nearby Stations and Ships

Latest Satellite Wind Map for this Area

Sector pictures are available for this station at 0, 45, 90, 135, 180, 225, 270, 315 degrees.

(SECTOR PHOTOS ARE NOT IN REAL-TIME AND ARE NOT UPDATED!)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conditions at CDRF1 as of
(12:00 pm EDT)

Wind Direction (WDIR): WNW ( 300 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 15 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 19 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.57 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 75.9 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.0 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
Continuous Winds TIME
(EDT) WDIR WSPD
12:00 pm WNW ( 299 deg ) 12 kts
11:50 am WNW ( 296 deg ) 11 kts
11:40 am WNW ( 291 deg ) 11 kts
11:30 am WNW ( 282 deg ) 11 kts
11:20 am WNW ( 283 deg ) 15 kts
11:10 am W ( 264 deg ) 25 kts
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay over northern Florida Penninsula

#12722 Postby Enzo Aquarius » Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:12 pm

From Station SAUF1 near Jacksonville -

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 36 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 42 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.72 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.05 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 77.7 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 78.1 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 77.7 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 79.7 °F

1:00 pm SSE ( 148 deg ) 34 kts
12:50 pm SSE ( 149 deg ) 34 kts
12:40 pm SSE ( 155 deg ) 35 kts
12:30 pm SSE ( 162 deg ) 31 kts
12:20 pm SSE ( 162 deg ) 31 kts
12:10 pm SSE ( 160 deg ) 32 kts


EDIT: Tornado warning northeast of Jacksonville has ended.
Last edited by Enzo Aquarius on Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay over northern Florida Penninsula

#12723 Postby mutley » Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:16 pm

Does it look like Fay has stalled again?
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#12724 Postby CronkPSU » Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:17 pm

woo hoo! power back on! rains have finally stopped...clean-up of the grounds starts Monday

UGH!!! as soon as I started typing this, the rain started again but I guess we will get rain for most of the weekend

Thanks as always to all the great pro-mets and posters on this site for helping all of us Central Floridians get through the storm (now let's hope it doesn't pay another visit to Disney World)
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay over northern Florida Penninsula

#12725 Postby Enzo Aquarius » Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:19 pm

Whoa! Just after NOAA cancelled the tornado warning northeast of Jacksonville, they issue another bigger one:

115 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN NASSAU COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
NORTHEASTERN DUVAL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA

* UNTIL 200 PM EDT

* AT 114 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR MAYPORT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LITTLE TALBOT ISLAND...FORT CAROLINE...TALBOT ISLAND...ARLINGTON...
OCEANWAY...JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...YULEE AND CALLAHAN.


EDIT:

Black Creek at Middleburg just broke through the Action Stage. Expected to reach Flood Stage by tonight.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay over northern Florida Penninsula

#12726 Postby kpflagman » Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:29 pm

Can someone post a picture of where they believe the center to be at this time?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay over northern Florida Penninsula

#12727 Postby Enzo Aquarius » Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:32 pm

Another tornado warning has been issued. The whole east coastline near Jacksonville is a tornado warning area, although the warning area southeast of Jacksonville was cancelled just after posting this report:

124 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN ST. JOHNS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
SOUTHEASTERN DUVAL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT

* AT 124 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A TORNADO NEAR DURBIN...OR 7 MILES WEST OF GUANA RIVER STATE
PARK...MOVING NORTH AT 36 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BAYARD...SAWGRASS...PALM VALLEY...PONTE VEDRA BEACH...JACKSONVILLE
BEACH...UNF...SAN PABLO...ARLINGTON AND FORT CAROLINE.
Last edited by Enzo Aquarius on Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay over northern Florida Penninsula

#12728 Postby cpdaman » Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:39 pm

the center or area with best inflow appears to be about 15 miles west south west of lake city (based on radar) i see a few bands being drawn north into this area, while another band rotes ESE around the sw side of this. not very well defined and possibly the area of lowest pressure could be a touch SW of this, but per radar only i put it 15 miles west south west of lake city.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay over northern Florida Penninsula

#12729 Postby Jason_B » Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:41 pm

Is it me or does Fay appear to be slowing down again?
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#12730 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:41 pm

[quote=SoupBone]Back on topic. Does anyone have any rainfall estimates for the LA/MS area since it looks like she's going to sit on McComb for a few days?[/quote]

Soup,

Here's the link to the 12z estimate. New one should be out tonight around 8-8:30 Central

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif

Steve
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#12731 Postby Nexus » Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:42 pm

Shouldn't there at least be hurricane watches up? We are supposed to watch the cone and not the line, and a track even slightly left of the line would indicate a storm centered over the GOM for almost 3 days before it's predicted to get drawn north and sheared.

Let's put it a different way... A tropical storm is about to enter the Gulf of Mexico near the peak of hurricane season. Hopefully NHC hasn't been lulled to sleep by Fay's steady state the last several days. Their own advisories still have this moving west, in the face of the continual forecasting north. Here is the archive:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay over northern Florida Penninsula

#12732 Postby Enzo Aquarius » Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:42 pm

* AT 139 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT...
FROM DEWEES INLET TO 8 NM NORTHEAST OF ANCHOR WRECK...
OR FROM 4 NM NORTH OF RATTLESNAKE SHOAL TO 16 NM NORTH OF 41004...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 17 KT.


Also, that tornado warning in Georgia is slowly creeping towards Savannah.
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Re:

#12733 Postby Enzo Aquarius » Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:43 pm

Nexus wrote:Shouldn't there at least be hurricane watches up? We are supposed to watch the cone and not the line, and a track even slightly left of the line would indicate a storm centered over the GOM for almost 3 days before it's predicted to get drawn north and sheared.

Let's put it a different way... A tropical storm is about to enter the Gulf of Mexico near the peak of hurricane season. Hopefully NHC hasn't been lulled to sleep by Fay's steady state the last several days. Their own advisories still have this moving west, in the face of the continual forecasting north. Here is the archive:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml


http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... 0statement ;)
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay over northern Florida Penninsula

#12734 Postby Jason_B » Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:46 pm

Fay is not going to have enough time over the Gulf to get anywhere close to being a hurricane, I think the Gulf will just help her maintain TS status until her second landfall somewhere from the panhandle to MS.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay over northern Florida Penninsula

#12735 Postby jdray » Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:46 pm

Enzo Aquarius wrote:Whoa! Just after NOAA cancelled the tornado warning northeast of Jacksonville, they issue another bigger one:

115 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN NASSAU COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
NORTHEASTERN DUVAL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA

* UNTIL 200 PM EDT

* AT 114 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR MAYPORT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LITTLE TALBOT ISLAND...FORT CAROLINE...TALBOT ISLAND...ARLINGTON...
OCEANWAY...JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...YULEE AND CALLAHAN.


EDIT:

Black Creek at Middleburg just broke through the Action Stage. Expected to reach Flood Stage by tonight.




My backyard butts up to a floodplain that connects to a prong of Black Creek.

I currently have waterfront property, but still have another 5 feet of water height before it touches my back yard.
Nice to have waterfront, but the dang mocassins need to go somewhere else, I have a young son....
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay over northern Florida Penninsula

#12736 Postby yzerfan » Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:48 pm

TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1046 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

.AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 40 MILES
NORTHEAST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CROSSING THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...THEN MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...MAINLY
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SEVERAL STATIONS OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA
ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-222200-
/O.NEW.KMOB.TR.A.1006.080822T1546Z-000000T0000Z/
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1046 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS
IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES.

IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES.

THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
OFFSHORE FOR 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COASTAL WATERS FROM
DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OFFSHORE FOR 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND
OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES
IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FARTHER TO THE WEST TODAY.

...STORM INFORMATION...

AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 40 MILES
NORTHEAST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CROSSING THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...THEN MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...MAINLY
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SEVERAL STATIONS OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA
ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BEGIN TROPICAL CYCLONE
PREPARATIONS TODAY. TAKE ACTION NOW TO SECURE PROPERTY...ESPECIALLY
AT BEACH FRONT HOMES AND WITH BOATS. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL RADIO AND
TELEVISION FOR DETAILS FOR THE LATEST EVACUATION INFORMATION.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED...MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL TIDE
HEIGHTS COULD REACH 3 TO 4 FEET IN SOME AREAS. AS THE CENTER OF FAY
MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SATURDAY...THE
MAXIMUM STORM TIDES WILL EFFECT THE COASTAL SECTIONS FROM DESTIN TO
PENSACOLA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AND FROM
PENSACOLA TO PASCAGOULA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BETWEEN 2 AM AND 5 AM.

...WINDS...

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 MPH WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO NEAR
40 MPH AS THE CENTER OF FAY MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SATURDAY EVENING...THEN MOBILE AND BALDWIN
COUNTIES BY SUNDAY MORNING.

...INLAND FLOODING...

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK OF FAY...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES...WITH
LOCALIZED AREAS SEEING NEAR 15 INCHES AS FAY MOVES SLOWLY WEST ALONG
THE COAST.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF RIVERS AND STREAMS POSSIBLE WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

...TORNADOES...

THE RISK OF TORNADOES IN RAIN BANDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF FAY MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THE BANDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF FAY WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO
CONTAIN TORNADOES.

...RIP CURRENTS...

THE THREAT FOR EXTREMELY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF FAY MOVES WEST ACROSS THE DESTIN
AND PENSACOLA AREAS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE-THREATENING TO ANYONE
ENTERING THE SURF...AND SWIMMERS SHOULD NOT ENTER THE WATER UNDER ANY
CIRCUMSTANCES.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MOBILE BY 3 PM CDT


****************************

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2008

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-231600-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1145 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AT 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING...TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA NORTHEAST OF CEDAR KEY. TROPICAL STORM FAY
IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AS TROPICAL STORM FAY APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST...
GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS...POSSIBLY UP TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

OVER THE MARINE AREA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AND
SEAS WILL BUILD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM FAY
APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM THE DESTIN...WESTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA BORDER...
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 60 MILES OFFSHORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS TROPICAL STORM FAY REACHES THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT...WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE TROPICAL STORM WITH STORM TOTALS
REACHING OR EXCEEDING 15 INCHES FOR MANY AREAS ALONG THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST...STRETCHING NORTH AND WEST OVER SOME AREAS IN
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL INCREASE
THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL...CREATING RAIN SWOLLEN CREEKS AND RIVER BEDS.
THE RESULT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...MAKING HAZARDOUS DRIVING
FOR MANY AREAS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND ALABAMA COAST.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF RIVERS AND STREAMS COULD ALSO PERSIST WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR FAY TO SLOW DOWN OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

EAST OF FAYS CENTER...THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

OVER THE MARINE AREA...GUSTY WINDS FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED GENERATING VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS...BOTH INSHORE AND
OFFSHORE. AS FAY MOVES WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND WILL
GENERATE ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS AND TIDES 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL.

IT MUST BE NOTED...IF FAY DEVIATES A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK...MORE RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A STRONGER SYSTEM WHICH BRINGS GREATER IMPACTS TO
THE FORECAST AREA. ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK WILL KEEP
FAY WEAKER. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOULD STAY
ALERT ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK OF FAY.

STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ACTIVATION
WILL BE REQUIRED THIS WEEKEND.

$$
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay over northern Florida Penninsula

#12737 Postby Nexus » Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:51 pm

Jason_B wrote:Fay is not going to have enough time over the Gulf to get anywhere close to being a hurricane, I think the Gulf will just help her maintain TS status until her second landfall somewhere from the panhandle to MS.


At what point do they issue hurricane watches? 20% chance, 10%? Just curious.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay over northern Florida Penninsula

#12738 Postby Enzo Aquarius » Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:52 pm

jdray wrote:
Enzo Aquarius wrote:
EDIT:

Black Creek at Middleburg just broke through the Action Stage. Expected to reach Flood Stage by tonight.



My backyard butts up to a floodplain that connects to a prong of Black Creek.

I currently have waterfront property, but still have another 5 feet of water height before it touches my back yard.
Nice to have waterfront, but the dang mocassins need to go somewhere else, I have a young son....


Stay safe, weather looks to be nasty east of your area. Waters in Black Creek are rising at a considerable rate, now expected to reach Moderate Stage by 8 AM tomorrow. :eek:
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Re:

#12739 Postby cpdaman » Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:54 pm

Nexus wrote:Shouldn't there at least be hurricane watches up? We are supposed to watch the cone and not the line, and a track even slightly left of the line would indicate a storm centered over the GOM for almost 3 days before it's predicted to get drawn north and sheared.

Let's put it a different way... A tropical storm is about to enter the Gulf of Mexico near the peak of hurricane season. Hopefully NHC hasn't been lulled to sleep by Fay's steady state the last several days. Their own advisories still have this moving west, in the face of the continual forecasting north. Here is the archive:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml


that's not a bad point

the conditions over the storm right now are still "stellar" and since the high cirrus to the west of the center still shows near perfect outflow i don't think shear is going to be picking up in the "near" term. I guess that just shows the NHC is very confident fay will not dip SW in a unexpected fashion or prolonged "wobble".

I wonder should a convective mass form offshore..... if the center is still defined enough to make a re-location offshore still very unlikely (given the hypothetical situation) or should her motion of due west continue she could have a "better" shot when she is west of 85.5 (when the coast line curves NW )

so should the Due west continue (and at this pace) any hurricane watches would probably be posted for western areas of the panhandle over to the N.O area. later today?
Last edited by cpdaman on Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#12740 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:54 pm

T MUST BE NOTED...IF FAY DEVIATES A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK...MORE RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A STRONGER SYSTEM WHICH BRINGS GREATER IMPACTS TO
THE FORECAST AREA. ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK WILL KEEP
FAY WEAKER. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOULD STAY
ALERT ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK OF FAY.

STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.
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