ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Dean4Storms]

Fay is not going to have enough time over the Gulf to get anywhere close to being a hurricane, I think the Gulf will just help her maintain TS status until her second landfall somewhere from the panhandle to MS.

That is your opinion and strengthening is still a possibility if she moves any WSW!

[N2Storms]

[quote="Dean4Storms"]T MUST BE NOTED...IF FAY DEVIATES A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK...MORE RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A STRONGER SYSTEM WHICH BRINGS GREATER IMPACTS TO
THE FORECAST AREA. ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK WILL KEEP
FAY WEAKER. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOULD STAY
ALERT ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK OF FAY.

STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.[/quote]


Just curious...is that from the Mobile or Tally NWS?

[RL3AO]

It would take at least 18 hours to try to develop some sort of core before it even thinks about developing into a hurricane. Even if it gets 48 hours over the GOM, I don't think it would get above 55kt.

Of course thats just my opinion.

[jdjaguar]

stay safe JD

thanks tornadic activity passed 6 miles east from my location..appears to be some dry air SE quadrant..may catch a break and allow some clean-up before she swings around again

[Enzo Aquarius]

Tornado warning northeast of Jacksonville has been cancelled...again. Warning to the east still remains.

[Dean4Storms]

T MUST BE NOTED...IF FAY DEVIATES A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK...MORE RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A STRONGER SYSTEM WHICH BRINGS GREATER IMPACTS TO
THE FORECAST AREA. ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK WILL KEEP
FAY WEAKER. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOULD STAY
ALERT ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK OF FAY.

STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

Just curious...is that from the Mobile or Tally NWS?

That is Mobile NWS

[Stormcenter]

Well based on the lastest visible loop.
It looks like Fay's center may not
enter the GOM and instead stay on land.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[cpdaman]

seems like once again a small shift in track could have huge implications on intensity

central and NE florida dodged the wind threat of a major hurricane that could have become reality should fay have been drifting 50 miles further to the east over the gulf stream

now the northern gulf waters are not as condusive to the Gulf stream (that is for sure) but they are still much better than the mid 70's that fay had to deal with off cape canaveral.

anyone have a good link to water temps in the northern gulf (most of noaa's bouys either don't report water temp and the other main one (near the coast) is not working.

wobble watchers on level 6 alert.

[Jason_B]

Fay is not going to have enough time over the Gulf to get anywhere close to being a hurricane, I think the Gulf will just help her maintain TS status until her second landfall somewhere from the panhandle to MS.

That is your opinion and strengthening is still a possibility if she moves any WSW!

Never said she wouldn't strengthen, I just think hurricane is a stretch. And we have yet to see any movement to the south.

[Dean4Storms]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1100 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2008

.UPDATE...TROPICAL SEASON UNDERWAY AT KMOB...WITH FIRST HLS OF THE
2008 SEASON ISSUED. ENTIRE COASTAL COUNTIES AND MARINE AREAS PUT
UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. PRODUCTS UPDATED TO REFLECT.

16

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)HIGHER CLOUDS(CIRRUS) WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS TROPICAL STORM FAY MOVES INTO THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. FAY IS EXPECTED TO STAY CLOSE
ENOUGH TO LAND TO NOT CHANGE IN STRENGTH MUCH...IF IT MOVES MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH AND SPENDS MORE TIME OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THAN
FORECAST WE WOULD EXPECT A STRONGER STORM...BUT THAT IS NOT THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MAY BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TODAY BUT SHOULD NOT BEGIN TO SEE MUCH RAIN
UNTIL TONIGHT AS THE RAIN SHIELD AROUND FAY CREEPS INTO THE EASTERN
ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA. HEAVIEST RAIN NOT EXPECTED UNTIL DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.

TODAY`S WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL IS LOW BUT INCREASING TO MODERATE
OVER THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

[tolakram]

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES... 70 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

3 point extrapolation again (eyeballed, not exact)

[Steve]

cpd,

Try this link. It updates several times per day (satellite depiction of water temperature profiles). Click on August and then you can scroll through the imagery for what you're looking for.



Steve

http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/index.html

[Nexus]

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES... 70 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

[Jason_B]

T MUST BE NOTED...IF FAY DEVIATES A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK...MORE RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A STRONGER SYSTEM WHICH BRINGS GREATER IMPACTS TO
THE FORECAST AREA. ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK WILL KEEP
FAY WEAKER. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOULD STAY
ALERT ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK OF FAY.

STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

I live in the Pensacola area and I must say I'm a little surprised at how much attention Fay is NOT getting. Not that it needs to be over-hyped or anything but usually (especially since Ivan) whenever there's any sort of tropical system heading this way it's usually a big deal but so far that's not been the case here. Hopefully all Fay will be is a rain event because I don't think many folks here are prepared for any more than that.

[Enzo Aquarius]

As I expected, another tornado warning north/northwest of Jacksonville has been issued. It goes into Georgia as well.

210 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CHARLTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
NORTHERN NASSAU COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
NORTHERN DUVAL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
SOUTHWESTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 210 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES EAST
OF CALLAHAN...OR JUST NORTH OF JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 32 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CALLAHAN...HILLIARD...KINGS FERRY...FOLKSTON AND HOMELAND.

EDIT:

Another tornado warning has been issued, now in Jacksonville itself:

213 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN DUVAL AND NORTHERN ST. JOHNS
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 215 PM EDT...

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

211 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN NASSAU COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
EASTERN DUVAL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 211 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF UNF...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF MANDARIN...MOVING NORTH
AT 44 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
UNF...SAN MARCO...RIVERSIDE...ARLINGTON...DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE...
FORT CAROLINE...OCEANWAY...JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...
RATLIFF...CALLAHAN AND YULEE.

[Dean4Storms]

T MUST BE NOTED...IF FAY DEVIATES A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK...MORE RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A STRONGER SYSTEM WHICH BRINGS GREATER IMPACTS TO
THE FORECAST AREA. ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK WILL KEEP
FAY WEAKER. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOULD STAY
ALERT ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK OF FAY.

STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

I live in the Pensacola area and I must say I'm a little surprised at how much attention Fay is NOT getting. Not that it needs to be over-hyped or anything but usually (especially since Ivan) whenever there's any sort of tropical system heading this way it's usually a big deal but so far that's not been the case here. Hopefully all Fay will be is a rain event because I don't think many folks here are prepared for any more than that.

Same here in Destin, everybody is hearing rain event and not much wind, lets hope that holds true.

I'm prepared for anything but most neighbors are not.

[artist]

sorry I missed it. Hope you are beginning to dry out there.

[ishop]

tolakram aka Mark and all other posters


I like to take a minute to thank you for your personal plotting. I don't
say much --just like to learn and listen here -- We got a lot of rain and wind
here in Central Florida via Fay -- I saw many neighbors of the Winter Springs/Oviedo Tuskawilla area posting. I like to thank everyone for keeping
us inform. Now I might have to say as a Novice I think she (FAY) has had enough
vacationing and she should hed on out. First visiting Espinola Island, Cuba,
Cape Canaveral, Disney, Daytona --isn't she tired yet ! Good luck to those still
feeling her "Faynous". Now back to the topic at hand.

[CronkPSU]

my wife's grandparents live right down the road from Patrick there in Sat Beach, they have lived there for 35 years, worst flooding BY FAR they have ever seen there

[Dean4Storms]

I noticed the 12z GFDL does increase the winds in Fay to around 50-60mph and pressure at 993mb (and she starts her out with the pressure too high) before landfall near Mobile.